中国城市人口的空间集聚特征与规律分析
收稿日期: 2008-01-17
修回日期: 2008-07-01
网络出版日期: 2008-10-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(40871066); 国家杰出青年基金项目(40525002); 国家自然科学基金重点项目 (40830532)
Spatial Agglomeration and Evolution of Urban Population in China
Received date: 2008-01-17
Revised date: 2008-07-01
Online published: 2008-10-25
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40871066; No.40830532; National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars, No.40525002
城市集聚增长日益显著以及城市间连接性的增强等是20 世纪90 年代以来中国城市发 展的显著特征。通过运用GIS 环境下的Moran's I 等技术方法， 探讨了1990-2005 年中国城市 人口的空间集聚特征及其演变规律， 结果表明： 尽管总体上城市人口的正空间集聚性不强， 但局部空间集聚特征明显， 存在较强的规律性， 主要表现为“T” 字型和沿主要铁路交通线 的发展态势， 而其演变过程体现了中国城市体系空间结构正处在不断优化之中; 三大地带城 市人口空间集聚的特征反差明显， 东部城市区域基本表现为一体化发展趋势， 而中西部城市 区域则趋向于极化发展或表现出较差的整体协调能力; 进一步来看， 城市人口空间集聚的不 平衡性， 不仅体现于区域之间也体现于区域内部的城市之间， 且其作用范围进一步扩大， 集 聚区位有所变化。总体来看， 这一典型转型时期里， 中国城市人口的空间集聚特征及其演变， 体现出了市场力量、经济发展状况、基础设施建设及国家空间开发政策等的积极作用。
陈刚强, 李郇, 许学强 . 中国城市人口的空间集聚特征与规律分析[J]. 地理学报, 2008 , 63(10) : 1045 -1054 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200810004
The increasing urban agglomerative growth and urban interactions has been a conspicuous feature of urban development in China since the 1990s. This paper makes an analysis on the spatial agglomeration and evolution of urban population in China, 1990-2005. The spatial data in this study are the cities and towns population of 451 cities in 1990, 662 cities in 2000 and 634 cities in 2005. Moran's I, one of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) techniques, is the main method, and Moran's I statistics are obtained with the usual 5% significance level in this paper. In order to investigate the rationality of the empirical results, the transition probability matrices are applied to test its robustness, then the results are visualized by ArcGIS 9.0 soft in the research. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The findings for the global spatial agglomeration of urban population are the existence of positive effect. Though the positive effect of the global spatial agglomeration is not strong, it is more or less increased from 1990 to 2005. On the other hand, the law of the local spatial agglomeration is obvious with a spatial agglomeration of a "T-shaped" pattern or along the main railroad lines, indicating that evolution of spatial structure of urban system has been optimized since 1990. (2) The diversity between HH spatial agglomeration of urban population in the East Zone and the LL ones in the Middle and West zones shows significant imbalance, while its changes show the imbalance had an extended trend during the 1990s and was mitigated in a way after 2000. At the same time, the effect and the changes of spatial agglomeration also suggest that the urban regions in the East Zone represent an integrative development while the ones in the Middle and West zones tend to the polarized development or less harmonious ability as a whole. (3) Furthermore, both different urban regions and the intra-urban regions have distinct state and changes of spatial agglomeration, which manifests that the spatial disparity is reflected not only between regions but also between intra-urban regions. The empirical results also show that the influencing scope of spatial agglomeration has expanded and the state and location of urban agglomeration has changed. (4) To a certain extent, the feature and its change of spatial agglomeration of urban population accord with the functions of market forces, economic development, construction of transport infrastructure, China's spatial development policies and so on.
Key words： local Moran’s I; spatial agglomeration; urban population; imbalance; integration; China
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