中国粮食安全脆弱区的识别及空间分异特征
收稿日期: 2007-12-07
修回日期: 2008-04-01
网络出版日期: 2008-10-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(40571165); 国家科技支撑计划重大项目(2007BAC03A11)
Assessment on Vulnerable Regions of Food Security in China
Received date: 2007-12-07
Revised date: 2008-04-01
Online published: 2008-10-25
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40571165; Key Project of National Scientific and Technological Support Plan , No.2007BAC03A11
从粮食获取能力和粮食安全保障阈值的角度， 综合考虑粮食供需平衡、粮食安全储备、 经济补偿能力等因素， 构造综合评价指标—粮食安全保障的财政压力水平， 以粮食安全保障 费用不超过地方财政收入水平的25%作为可接受水平， 共识别出6 个不同类型的粮食安全区。 在没有重大灾害事件发生和现有粮食播种面积不变的前提下， 全国有14.5%的县(市) (1 级和3 级粮食安全区) 能够通过粮食生产或者经济补偿能力保障小康水平的粮食安全。全国29.4% 的县(市) 属于2 级粮食安全区， 其中57%的地区是中国的主要余粮区， 约占全国主要余粮区 中的72%， 因财政收入低、人口密度大， 不能负担庞大的小康水平粮食安全储备费用。中国 粮食安全最脆弱的地区(6 级区) 占全国县(市) 总数的30%， 不具备温饱水平粮食生产能力和 经济补偿能力， 主要包括两类地区： ① 夏季季风区边缘地带的农牧交错带及秦岭地区， 以及 南方贫困的丘陵地区属于“资源型粮食短缺地区”； ② 广西、广东南部以及东部沿海地区等 富裕地区属于“结构性粮食短缺地区”， 过低的粮食自给率已影响到粮食安全应急保障能力。
殷培红, 方修琦 . 中国粮食安全脆弱区的识别及空间分异特征[J]. 地理学报, 2008 , 63(10) : 1064 -1072 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200810006
An integrated index balancing between supply and demand for grain, reserves for food security and food affordability etc. is constructed for assessing the vulnerability of food security at the county level of China. Taking the revenue burden below 25% of local financial income as the acceptable threshold, six types of food security have been identified based on the data from county statistics for the period 2002-2004. Under the situation of grain-sown area less changed and without severe agricultural disasters, only about 14.5% of the total counties and cities (classified to Type1 and Type 3) have food productivity or food affordability to ensure food security at 400 kg per capita grain level. About 29.4% of the whole (Type 2) with food production at 400 kg per capita grain level, of which 57% belong to the main grain-output regions, would be difficult to afford huge reserves for food security because of the lowest local revenue and large population. In other words, 72% of the total main grain-output regions belong to this kind of food security. If these regions increase their financial income through decreasing the grain-sown area and increasing the non-agricultural use of cultivated land as what the developed regions in China have done, it would increase the risk of food security in China. The most vulnerable regions in food security in China (Type 6) are in 30% of the total counties and cities in China, which can be divided into two sub-types of the grain-shortage region. One is poor natural resource domain with the lowest food production and food affordability at 300 kg per capita grain level located in the marginal zone of summer monsoon and the hilly areas in southern China, and the other is industrial structure domain with the highest local financial income as well as the most densely populated coastal regions in Southeast China. To ensure the food security in the regions of Type 6, it is important to reduce grain production for ecological restoration, to improve farmers' livelihood, and to establish reserves system for food security in the regions of the former sub-type; while in the latter sub-type, it is very important to keep a moderate level of food production through identifying the red line of the grain-sown area and high-quality cultivated land, based on the threshold of acceptable level of revenue burden for food security.
Key words： food security; vulnerability assessment; China
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