西藏羊卓雍湖流域近45 年气温和降水的变化趋势
收稿日期: 2008-01-13
修回日期: 2008-07-20
网络出版日期: 2008-11-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(40565002)
Climatic Variations of Temperature and Precipitation in the Yamzho Yumco Lake Basin of Tibet from 1961 to 2005
Received date: 2008-01-13
Revised date: 2008-07-20
Online published: 2008-11-25
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40565002
利用西藏羊卓雍湖流域气象、水文观测站1961-2005 年逐月的平均气温、降水量等资 料， 分析了近45 年流域气温、降水的年际和年代际变化特征和异常年份， 以及羊湖水位变化趋势及影响因子， 结果表明： 近45 年流域年平均气温以0.25 oC/10a 的速率显著升高， 增温主要表现在秋、冬季。近25 年， 流域平均降水量除冬季呈减少趋势外， 其他各季节表现为显 著的增加趋势， 增幅为11.4~30.0 mm/10a， 夏季增幅最大； 年降水量以54.2 mm/10a 的速率明显增加。20 世纪60 年代至90 年代， 除夏季外， 其他3 季表现为逐年代增温趋势。在夏季， 降水量除80 年代偏少外， 其他3 个年代偏多； 而冬季相反， 80 年代降水偏多， 其他3 个年代偏少。流域年平均气温异常偏高年出现过3 次， 且发生在20 世纪90 年代末至21 世纪初； 60 年代后期和70 年代初降水多异常年份。自1997 年发电以来， 降水量呈增加趋势， 流域平均降水量达409.7 mm， 明显高于平衡降水量， 水位呈较明显的上升趋势。降水增多、日照减少， 以及气温明显升高、冰雪融水增加是造成水位上升的主要原因。
杜军,胡军,唐述君,鲍建华,拉巴 . 西藏羊卓雍湖流域近45 年气温和降水的变化趋势[J]. 地理学报, 2008 , 63(11) : 1160 -1168 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200811005
The interannual, interdecadal variations and anomalous years of the annual and seasonal mean temperature and precipitation are investigated in the context of the monthly data at 9 meteorological and hydrological stations in the Yamzho Yumco Lake basin of Tibet from 1961 to 2005 by using modern statistical diagnostic methods such as the linear trend, and the relationship between lake level and precipitation is discussed. The results show that the annual temperature presented a significant increasing trend and the rate of increase is about 0.25 oC/10a during recent 46 years, indicating that the warming trend is obvious in autumn and winter. In recent 25 years (1981-2005), the precipitation presents a decreasing trend in winter, while the increasing trend is apparent in other seasons with a rate of (11.4-30.0) mm/10a, especially in summer. Finally, the annual precipitation shows an obviously increasing trend and the rate is 54.2 mm/10a. In terms of interdecadal variations, the mean temperature increases apparently in most seasons, except in summer. The summer precipitation is less in the 1980s, more in the other three decades. On the contrary, in winter the precipitation is more in the 1980s, less in the other three decades. Also, the warm anomalous years of annual mean temperature occurred three times in the end of the 1990s and the early 2100s. The more precipitation anomalous years occurred in the end of the 1960s and the early 1970s. Since generation of electricity with the water of the Yamzho Yumco Lake in 1997, the trend of annual precipitation has increased. The mean precipitation is about 409.7 mm in the basin, which is higher than the balanced rainfall, and presents an obvious increasing trend of the lake level. The water level rise is directly correlated with precipitation increase and sunshine decrease, while the apparent rise of temperature and the increase of snowmelt are also important factors.
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