中国北方初霜冻日期变化及其对农业的影响
收稿日期: 2010-01-08
修回日期: 2010-02-10
网络出版日期: 2010-05-25
基金资助
气象行业专项(GYHY200906019); 国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BAK50B02; 2007BAC29B04)
The Climatic Variability and Influence of First Frost Dates in Northern China
Received date: 2010-01-08
Revised date: 2010-02-10
Online published: 2010-05-25
Supported by
National Non-profit Research Project to Serve the Public Interest, No.GYHY200906019; The Projects of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, No.2008BAK50B02; No.2007BAC29B04
我国北方地区初霜冻出现的早晚对秋粮产量影响极大,但目前我国关于初霜冻日期的气候研究及其气候预测业务存在定义要素不统一、同一要素定义多样化和业务预测、服务产品参考标准不统一的问题,严重阻碍了研究和预测业务的发展,也给农业部门在使用相关气象信息产品时带来了困难。本文针对以上问题作了3方面的工作:第一,将国家气候中心原有北方地区(30oN以北)初霜冻预测业务代表站由65个增加到233个,空间精细度达到行政县级,并且分析了233个测站分别用地面0cm日最低温度和百叶箱观测日最低气温定义的初霜冻日期与气象观测日期的差异,结果表明在北方地区用地温定义的初霜冻日期普遍要更接近于初霜冻观测日期;第二,本文整理分析了1961-2008年北方地区233个站地面0cm日最低温度定义的初霜冻日期的年际/年代际气候变化特征,结果表明2000年以来各地初霜冻日期推迟最为明显,而且黑龙江东部地区初霜冻日期推迟到了9月30日以后,另外在北方许多地区初霜冻日期在20世纪80年代较90年代偏晚;第三,分析了黑龙江省初霜冻日期早晚对秋粮产量的影响,结果表明,成熟期之前若无持续性异常低温时段,初霜冻日期早晚变化对水稻和玉米单产有显著影响,但其影响大小还受到作物成熟前各生长阶段的气候条件和气候条件的年代际背景调控。
韩荣青; 李维京; 艾婉秀; 宋艳玲; 叶殿秀; 侯威 . 中国北方初霜冻日期变化及其对农业的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2010 , 65(5) : 525 -532 . DOI: 10.11821/xb201005002
At present, there is no uniform standard of forecasting system and serving products for first-frost date forecasting studies and operations in China\'s meteorological departments in spite of agricultural autumn harvests depending greatly on the first frost occurring earlier or later in northern China, which restrained the development of prediction studies and operations on the first-frost dates. Therefore the study aims at the above problems and analyzes 3 aspects of them. The first is about the discrepancy analyses of the three kinds of first frost date data, in which two of them are defined by surface ground temperature and air temperature from instrument shelter, respectively, and the other data are from observing first frost dates. And then the study enlarges the number of the representative stations in northern China (north of 30oN) of National Climate Center operation from 65 in the past to 233 at present for improving the spatial resolving power of the prediction products. The second is the analyses of the climate features of the first frost dates based on the aforementioned surface ground temperature data of the 233 stations from 1961 to 2008. Finally, the study shows that it is outstanding for the significant effects of the climatic variability of the first frost dates on single outputs of rice and maize separately in Heilongjiang Province, as long as without the continuing and lasting cold days before the autumn, whereas the effects from anomalous air temperature before the autumn, for example from cool summer, are dominant.
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