深圳市人口分布的细网格动态特征
收稿日期: 2009-08-04
修回日期: 2009-11-29
网络出版日期: 2010-04-25
基金资助
国家863 项目(2006AA01A123)
Fine Grid Dynamic Features of Population Distribution in Shenzhen
Received date: 2009-08-04
Revised date: 2009-11-29
Online published: 2010-04-25
Supported by
Research and Development Program of China (863 Program), No.2006AA01A123
深圳是中国人口密度最高的城市,为应急处置自然灾害等突发事件,需要实时获取高分辨率的人口动态分布信息。本文利用"基于移动基站的人口分布动态监测系统"提供的时间分辨率1 h,空间分辨率1 km的人口密度信息,分析了深圳市人口细网格动态特征。深圳城市移动用户总人口是1082.59万人,平均人口密度5545人/km2,最高16.5万人/km2,超过5.0万人/km2高密度人口主要分布在商业中心、海关口岸、火车站和居民集中居住区。最高人口密度的数值与选择的网格尺度有关,1000 km2网格和1 km2网格之间可以相差18倍。在深圳50%的人口聚集在10%的空间范围内,60%的人口分布在海拔高度50～100 m的土地上;网格上的建筑密度、道路密度与人口密度线性相关,建筑密度增加1%,对应人口增加约1000人,道路密度增加0.01%,人口增加约2000人。城市总人口在一定时期内是相对固定,变化幅度在4%以内,逐日之间变幅在1%左右。深圳是个典型的移民城市,春节期间由于大量人口返乡或外出旅游,总人口净减少48%。本文选择9个典型网格分析人口日变化规律:海关口岸属于早高峰型,大量的出境、出行、出游人员在早晨8时前后集中;城镇集市区属于午高峰型;商业中心区属于晚高峰型,高峰前后每小时的净流入 (出) 人员可达2万人;居民区属于午低谷型,周末与周日相比各时段人口均偏多;政府行政办公和公共服务区,周末比周日人口明显减少,春节期间减幅75%;工厂区因错峰用电,夜间4时形成人口高峰;郊野公园春节期间人数不减反增;偏僻乡镇人口日变化振幅很小;农业区在上午9时形成人口低谷,与日出而作的传统习惯相对应。
毛夏; 徐蓉蓉; 李新硕; 王煜; 李程; 曾波; 何宇华; 刘锦泉 . 深圳市人口分布的细网格动态特征[J]. 地理学报, 2010 , 65(4) : 443 -453 . DOI: 10.11821/xb201004006
Shenzhen is the most densely populated city in China.In order to respond to emergencies,such as natural disasters,real time high resolution dynamic information of population distribution is needed.This paper analyzes the fine grid dynamic characteristics of Shenzhen population distribution,using the information of population density in respect of which the temporal resolution is an hour and the spatial resolution is a kilometer provided by the "Dynamic Monitoring System of Population Distribution Based on Mobile Stations".The mobile subscribers in Shenzhen total to 10.8259 million.The average population density is 5545 people/km2,and the maximum density reaches 165,000 people/km2.High density areas which have more than 50,000 people/km2 are mainly the business centers,custom ports,railway stations,and large residential communities.The value of the maximum population density depends on the size of grid used,for example the value of 1 km2 grid is about 18 times than the value of 1000 km2 grid.Some 50% of the population in Shenzhen is concentrated in 10% of the city\'s spatial area,and 60% resides in the areas where altitudes are between 50 m to 100 m.The building density and the road density on the grid are linearly correlated with population density,that is,1000 people are added when the building density increases by 1%,and about 2,000 people are added when the road density increases by 0.01%.The total population of a city is relatively stable during a period of time,the variation of which is commonly less than 4% and the daily variation is about 1%.Shenzhen is a typical immigration city,and the total population will decrease by 48% during the Chinese New Year because a lot of people will go back to their hometowns or traval around.This paper selects 9 typical grids to analyze the daily variation of the population and they are as follows:custom ports have a morning peak,and people going outbound crowd here at about 8 a.m.;bazaar areas have a noon peak;business centers have an evening peak with a net inflow/outflow over 20,000 people/hr;residential communities have a noon trough,and the density of population is always bigger on the weekends than on the weekdays;in the government offices and public service areas,there are fewer people on the weekends than on the weekdays and the population is decreased by 75% during the Chinese New Year;the factory area has a peak of population at about 4 a.m.because of the peak load shifting;outing area is more crowded during the holidays and weekends;in the out-of-the-way area,the daily variation of population is very little;and in the farming area,there is a morning trough of population at about 9 a.m.which corresponds to the traditional farming habits.
Key words： population density; fine grid; dynamic distribution; Shenzhen
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