中国粮食单产对气候变化的敏感性评价
收稿日期: 2009-07-23
修回日期: 2010-01-31
网络出版日期: 2010-05-25
基金资助
国家科技支撑计划(2008BAK50B07-03)
Identification of the Susceptible Regions to Climate Change Impact on Grain Yield Per Unit Area in China
Received date: 2009-07-23
Revised date: 2010-01-31
Online published: 2010-05-25
Supported by
The National Key Technology R&D Program, No.2008BAK50B07-03
选取农业政策相对稳定的1985-2004年,全国2075个县(市)的粮食单产数据和全国730个基础气象站点的逐月气温、降水数据,运用协整分析方法提高了气候变化敏感区的辨识能力,得到以下结论:(1)典型相关分析结果说明4-10月温度,其次5-9月降水是影响中国粮食单产空间分异的主导因素;(2)在240个单产趋势增加显著地区中,识别出137个地区的单产趋势增长与4-10月温度变化存在长期互动关系,主要分布在地势阶梯转换带以及长江沿线等重要地理过渡带上;(3)在数据有效的328个地区中,有41.6%的地区粮食单产波动项对4-10月温度和5-9月降水两个气候波动项都敏感,主要集中分布在:①夏季风区与非季风区分界线和胡焕庸人口地理线之间的地区,常年缺粮区占优势,秦岭以北单产波动系数很高,②江西、浙江、福建是余粮区和常年缺粮区并存、单产波动变化很小的地区,③吉林、辽宁东部、河南、安徽,粮食播种总面积的波动系数低,单产波动系数较全国高,主要为受气候波动变化影响而产量不稳定的主要余粮区,这说明气候变化背景下中国粮食供应稳定性下降。
殷培红; 方修琦; 张学珍; 戚发全 . 中国粮食单产对气候变化的敏感性评价[J]. 地理学报, 2010 , 65(5) : 515 -524 . DOI: 10.11821/xb201005001
Based on the statistic agricultural data with a county resolution and monthly mean temperature and precipitation data at 730 national basic weather stations for the period 1985-2004, it is focused in this paper to identify the susceptible regions to climate change on grain yield per unit. The following main conclusions can be drawn. (1) The linearity trends of grain yield per unit sown-area have increased remarkably in most regions since 1985, especially in northern China. Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) reveals that this kind of spatial pattern has high correlation with the change of temperature from April to October (α = 0.01). The impacts of precipitation change are less than those of temperature change in the corresponding period. Most notable yield-increased regions sensitive to the temperature change in April to October are located at the climate transitional zones in China. The fluctuation of temperature, as well as that of precipitation, plays important roles in changes of grain yield per unit sown-area. (2) 137 in 240 districts where the linearity trends of grain yield per unit sown-area are significantly (α = 0.05) subject to the changes of temperature from April to October analyzed by cointergration (EG-test), and most of them are located in the transitional zones of topography and the Changjiang River Valley. (3) There are 41.6% of valid statistic districts where grain yield is subject to both the changes of temperature from April to October and precipitation from May to September analyzed by cointergration (EG-test). Most of them are distributed in the three kinds of regions, with the largest one lying between the borderline of summer monsoon and the sideline of Chinese population geography from the Heihe City in Heilongjiang Province to Tengchong City in Yunnan Province, in which food shortage regions are superior in numbers; grain yield per unit shows high fluctuation with the stable amount of sown-area in Jilin, eastern Liaoning, Henan and Anhui, of which the amount of grain production is susceptible to climate change and are main grain-surplus regions in China. It shows that the stability of food production in China has declined in these regions over recent 20 years due to climate change in the corresponding period.
Key words： susceptibility; climate change; food security; cointergration; China
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