江西省耕地转移驱动机理
收稿日期: 2009-08-14
修回日期: 2010-02-26
网络出版日期: 2010-04-25
基金资助
国家自然科学基金项目(40801231; 70873118); 国家科技支撑项目(2006BAC08B03; 2006BAC08B06); 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-305-2; KZCX2-YW-326-1)
Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversions in Jiangxi
Received date: 2009-08-14
Revised date: 2010-02-26
Online published: 2010-04-25
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40801231; No.70873118; National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2006BAC08B03; No.2006BAC08B06; Knowledge Innovation Program of the CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-326-1; No.KZCX2-YW-305-2.
构建涵盖农业生产、耕地向建设用地转移和耕地向林/草地转移的江西省土地用途转移驱动机理模型,采用分段估计逐步增加解释变量的方法测度了人口、社会、经济、区位和自然因素等驱动土地用途转移的机理。研究表明,人口规模是江西省土地用途转移的重要驱动力,社会经济因素在短时间内起决定性作用,各种驱动力以各种方式组合来增强或者减弱其对区域土地用途转移的作用效果。其中,农业人口规模及生产投入要素是影响江西省农业生产的主要因素;人口规模、平原面积比例及土地管理政策是江西省耕地向建设用地转移过程的重要解释变量;农业人口比重、地形坡度、粮食产量及非农产业是江西省耕地向林/草地转移过程的重要影响因素,并揭示了解释了江西省在众多驱动力作用下土地用途转移规律。
战金艳; 史娜娜; 邓祥征 . 江西省耕地转移驱动机理[J]. 地理学报, 2010 , 65(4) : 485 -493 . DOI: 10.11821/xb201004010
Cultivated land conversion is considered to be one of the major problems threatening agricultural development,food security and supporting functions of cultivated land conversions in Jiangxi.Recognization on the driving mechanism of cultivated land conversions is far from complete.This paper integrates geophysical information with socio-economic processes and policy changes to build an econometric model to explore the driving mechanism of cultivated land conversion from 1988 to 2005.Three equations are included in the econometric model to uncover the driving mechanism for agriculture production process,the conversion process from cultivated land to built-up area and the conversion process from cultivated land to forested land/grassland,which includes explained variables to identify the three main processes and the driving forces from social-economic,demographic,geophysical,managerial domains.The estimation results from the econometric model shows that the population size is one of the predominant driver for the three processes,and socio-economic factors play a decisive role in a short period of time.The synthesized influences from the multiple driving factors produces an enhanced or offsetting resultant effects for the ecological processes.The research results show that the agricultural population size and investment are the key influencing factors for agricultural production,while population size,the ratio of the plains area to total land and land management policy are the key explanatory variables in the conversion process of cultivated land to built-up area;and the proportion of agricultural population,terrain slope,food production and non-agricultural industry are the important influencing variables in the process of conversion from cultivated land to forested land/grassland.
[1] Li Xiubin. A review of the international researches on land use/land cover change. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1996, 51 (6): 553-558. [李秀彬. 全球变化研究的核心领域——土地利用/土地覆被变化的国际研究动向. 地理学报, 1996, 51 (6): 553-558.]
[2] Yang Guishan. The process and driving forces of change in arable-land area in Yangtze River Delta during the past 50 years. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 16(2): 121-127. [杨桂山. 长江三角洲近50 年耕地数量变化的过程与驱动机 制研究. 自然资源学报, 2001, 16(2): 121-127.]
[3] Shao Xiaomei, Yang Qinye, Zhang Hongye. A study on trend and driving forces of cultivated land use change in Shandong Province. Geographical Research, 2001, 20(3): 298-306. [邵晓梅, 杨勤业, 张洪业. 山东省耕地变化趋势及驱 动力研究. 地理研究, 2001, 20(3): 298-306.]
[4] Qu Futian, Chen Jianglong, Chen Wen. Theoretical and empirical study on the land conversion economic driving forces. Journal of Natural Resources, 2005, 20(2): 231-239. [曲福田, 陈江龙, 陈雯. 农地非农化经济驱动机制的理论分析与实 证研究. 自然资源学报, 2005, 20(2): 231-239.]
[5] Li Jinggang, He Chunyang, Shi Peijun et al. Change progress of cultivated land and its driving forces in northern China during 1983-2001. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(2): 274-282. [李景刚, 何春阳, 史培军等. 近20 年中国北方13 省 的耕地变化与驱动力. 地理学报, 2004, (2): 274-283.]
[6] Deng Xiangzheng. Analysis of Land Use Conversions. Beijing: China Land Press, 2008. [邓祥征. 土地用途转换分析. 北京：中国大地出版社, 2008.]
[7] Fu Bojie, Chen Liding, Wang Jun et al. Land use structure and ecological processes. Quaternary Sciences, 2003, 23(3): 247-255. [傅伯杰, 陈利顶, 王军等. 土地利用结构与生态过程. 第四纪研究, 2003, 23(3): 247-255.]
[8] Lv Yihe, Chen Liding, Fu Bojie. Analysis of the integrating approach on landscape pattern and ecological processes. Progress in Geography, 2007, 26(3): 1-10. [吕一河, 陈利顶, 傅伯杰. 景观格局与生态过程的耦合途径分析. 地理科学 进展, 2007, 26(3): 1-10.]
[9] Peng J, Wang Y, Wu J et al. Ecological effects associated with land-use change in China's southwest agriculture landscape. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Word Ecology, 2006, 13: 315-325.
[10] Metzger M J, Rounsevell M D, Acosta-Michlik L et al. The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2006, 119: 69-85.
[11] Zhao Yonghua, He Xingyuan, Hu Yuanman et al. Variation of cultivated land and the driving forces in Wenchuan County in the upstream of Min River. Transactions of the CSAE, 2006, 22 (2): 94-97. [赵永华, 何兴元, 胡远满等. 岷 江上游汶川县耕地变化及驱动力研究. 农业工程学报, 2006, 22(2): 94-97.]
[12] Long Hualou, Li Xiubin. Land use pattern in transect of the Yangtse River and its influential factors. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2001, 56(4): 417-425. [龙花楼, 李秀彬. 长江沿线样带土地利用格局及其影响因子分析. 地理学 报, 2001, 56(4): 417-425.]
[13] Yang Guishan. Land use and land cover change and regional economic development: the revelation of the change in cropland area in the Yangtze River Delta during the past 50 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(Suppl.): 41-46. [杨桂山. 土地利用覆被变化与区域经济发展: 长江三角洲近年耕地数量变化研究的启示. 地理学报, 2004, 59 (增刊): 41-46.]
[14] Shi Peijun, Chen Jin, Pan Yaozhong. Land use change mechanism in Shenzhen City. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000, 55(2): 151-160. [史培军, 陈晋, 潘耀忠. 深圳市土地利用变化机制分析. 地理学报, 2000, 55(2): 151-160.]
[15] Li Jinggang, He Chunyang, Shi Peijun et al. Change process of cultivated land and its driving forces in northern China during 1983-2001. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 59(2): 274-282. [李景刚, 何春阳, 史培军等. 近20 年中国北 方13 省的耕地变化与驱动力.地理学报, 2005, 59(2): 274-282.]
[16] Guo Liying, Liu Yansui, Ren Zhiyuan. Analysis of the land landscape changes and its driving mechanism in vulnerable ecological area: A case study of Yulin City. Resources Science, 2005, 27(2): 128-133. [郭丽英, 刘彦随, 任 志远. 生态脆弱区土地利用格局变化及其驱动机制分析: 以陕西榆林市为例. 资源科学, 2005, 27(2): 128-133.]
[17] Wu Hong'an, Jiang Jianjun, Zhou Jie et al. Dynamics of urban expansion in Xi'an city using Landsat TM/ETM+ data. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 60(1): 143-150. [吴宏安, 蒋建军, 周杰等. 西安城市扩张及其驱动力分析. 地理学 报, 2005, 60(1): 143-150.]
[18] Song Kaishan, Liu Dianwei, Wang Zongming et al. Land use change in Sanjiang Plain and its driving forces analysis since 1954. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008, 63(1): 93-104. [宋开山, 刘殿伟, 王宗明等. 1954 年以来三江平原土地利 用变化及驱动力. 地理学报, 2008, 63(1): 93-104.]
[19] Li Wei, Hao Jinmin, Feng Tingting et al. Land asset and policy factors for acreage changes of cultivated land in China based on econometric model. Transactions of the CSAE, 2008, 24(6): 115-118. [李伟, 郝晋珉, 冯婷婷等. 基于计量经 济模型的中国耕地数量变化政策与资产因素分析. 农业工程学报, 2008, 24(6): 115-118.]
[20] Liu Jiyuan, Zhang Zengxiang, Zhuang Dafang et al. A study on the spatial-temporal dynamic changes of land-use and driving forces analyses of China in the 1990s. Geographical Research, 2003, 22(1): 1-12. [刘纪远, 张增祥, 庄大方 等. 20 世纪90 年代中国土地利用变化时空特征及其成因分析. 地理研究, 2003, 22(1): 1-12.]
[21] Deng Xiangzheng. Simulation of Land System Dynamics. Beijing: China Land Press, 2008. [邓祥征. 土地系统动态模 拟. 北京: 中国大地出版社, 2008.]
[22] Yu Yongjun, Lu Yuqi. Changing tendency and protection strategy for cultivated land in Jiangxi Province. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2004, 13(3): 234-239. [俞勇军, 陆玉麒. 江西省耕地变化及保护策略. 长江流 域资源与环境, 2004, 13(3): 234-239.]
[23] Jiangxi Province Statistical Bureau. Jiangxi Statistical Yearbook: 2009. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2009. [江西省统 计局. 江西省统计年鉴: 2009. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2009.]
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |