作为控制城市蔓延的重要工具之一,城市增长边界(UGBs)已经在国际学术界得到了广泛的关注和研究。从控制机制来看,由于规划城镇建设用地边界具有控制城市增长的法律地位,与西方国家的UGBs较为相似,因而可以被视为中国特有的一种UGBs。该边界的制定在我国经过了长期的实践,然而以往的方法往往缺乏充分的科学依据。因此,本文提出一种基于约束性元胞自动机来制定城市增长边界的方法,该方法考虑了城市发展的综合因素,能够较为客观、全面地反映城市增长的时空动态变化过程,并能体现众多城市发展政策的影响效果。利用约束性元胞自动机模型,以北京市域为研究区域,制定了中心城、新城和乡镇三个层次的UGBs。实证分析表明,利用该方法与传统方法所制定的UGBs存在一定的差异,因此在拟定新的UGBs或改进现有的UGBs过程中,应当充分考虑这一情况,参考该方法的模拟结果建立更为科学合理的UGBs。

As an effective tool to curb urban sprawl, UGBs (urban growth boundaries) have been paid worldwide attention. According to the implementation mechanism, which is similar to their counterparts in Western countries, the planning urban construction boundaries can be defined as the Chinese UGBs, safeguarded by the latest Town and Country Planning Act enacted in 2008. There are quite a few examples in establishing UGBs. However, the determination of UGBs has not been based on sound scientific analysis in the previous cases. Especially, quantitative analysis was insufficient in the process of determining the boundaries. In this paper, the methodology of constrained CA (cellular automata) was introduced to support the establishment of the UGBs. Compared with traditional methods of establishing UGBs, constrained CA took into account more factors related to urban growth, and could make effective spatio-temporal dynamic simulation influenced by various urban development policies. Taking a case s...更多tudy of Beijing municipal area, we developed the UGBs in the central city, new cities and small towns. The results showed that there was large difference between the urban growth pattern simulated through constrained CA and that projected in the urban master plan. Consequently, the UGBs could be improved according to the simulation result based on constrained CA.