中国城市脆弱性的综合测度与空间分异特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb201502005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城市脆弱性是指城市在发展过程中抵抗资源、生态环境、经济、社会发展等内外部自然要素和人为要素干扰的应对能力。当这种抗干扰的应对能力低于某一临界阈值时,城市即进入脆弱状态。城市脆弱性是城市资源脆弱性、生态环境脆弱性、经济脆弱性和社会脆弱性的综合体现。城市脆弱性的评价与调控研究对提升中国城镇化质量、实现可持续发展具有重要意义。采用系统分析方法和综合指数评价法,从资源、生态环境、经济和社会4个方面确定10项分指数、选取36个具体指标,构建了中国城市脆弱性综合测度指标体系,并确定测度标准值,对中国地级以上城市脆弱性及其空间分异做了总体评价。研究表明,中国城市脆弱性呈现明显的“级差化”分异特征,总体处于中度脆弱状态。按照这种差异,将中国城市脆弱程度划分为低度脆弱、较低脆弱、中度脆弱、较高脆弱和高度脆弱5个级别。城市脆弱性呈现显著的“梯度化”和“集群化”空间分异,东部地区城市脆弱性明显低于中西部地区,城市群地区脆弱性低于其它地区。城市脆弱性与城市规模存在一定的对应关系,规模越大的城市脆弱性相对越小。资源型城市脆弱性明显高于综合性城市,职能综合性强的城市脆弱性相对较低。城市经济增长的快慢不能反映城市脆弱性的高低,经济高速增长并不意味着城市脆弱性就低。如何科学测度城市综合脆弱性,如何应对和降低城市脆弱性,是本研究试图回答的问题。该研究为丰富城市脆弱性与城市可持续发展理论,为解决快速城市化、工业化进程中的城市资源枯竭、生态环境破坏、经济增长方式的转变及系列社会问题等提供科学依据。

关键词: 城市脆弱性, 综合测度, 空间分异, 可持续发展, 中国

Abstract:

Urban vulnerability refers to the coping capacity necessary to resist disturbances from various internal or external natural factors and human factors, such as available resources, ecological environmental systems, economic and social development, during an urban development process. A city that has an anti-disturbance capacity below a certain threshold level is considered vulnerable. The concept of urban vulnerability comprehensively reflects urban resource vulnerability, eco-environmental vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and social vulnerability. Research on the assessment and regulatory control of urban vulnerability is of great significance for both urbanization quality improvement and sustainable development in China. In this study, using systematic analyses combined with a comprehensive index assessment method, we selected 10 subindexes involving 36 specific parameters from four aspects (resources, eco-environmental systems, economics, and social development) to construct a comprehensive index system for the assessment of China's urban vulnerability. In addition, the standard values of measurements were established and used to evaluate overall urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation among cities at the prefecture level and above in China. This study revealed that China's urban vulnerability demonstrates a "grade-difference" based differentiation and overall vulnerability is moderate. The differences in the extent of China's urban vulnerability were divided into five grades: low vulnerability, relatively low vulnerability, moderate vulnerability, relatively high vulnerability, and high vulnerability. Urban vulnerability has a remarkable spatial differentiation of both "gradient distribution" and "clustered distribution", as demonstrated by the facts that cities in eastern China are significantly less vulnerable than those in the central and western regions and the cities with low vulnerability are distributed in the form of agglomeration, which fits the urban agglomerations in China well. The extent of urban vulnerability corresponds to city size, and the bigger the city, the lower its vulnerability. Resource-based cities are more vulnerable than comprehensive cities, and cities with higher functional comprehensiveness have relatively low vulnerability. In addition, a city's economic growth rate does not reflect the extent of its urban vulnerability; in other words, high-speed economic growth does not necessarily indicate low urban vulnerability. The purpose of this study was to address how to scientifically assess overall urban vulnerability and how to effectively cope with and reduce urban vulnerability. This study provides scientific evidence to enrich our understanding of urban vulnerability and sustainable development and to solve problems such as resource exhaustion, eco-environmental disruption, the transformation of economic growth mechanisms, and a series of other social issues that arise during urbanization and industrialization.

Key words: urban vulnerability, comprehensive measurement, spatial differentiation, sustainable development, China

方创琳, 王岩. 中国城市脆弱性的综合测度与空间分异特征[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(2): 234-247.

Chuanglin FANG, Yan WANG. A comprehensive assessment of urban vulnerability and its spatial differentiation in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(2): 234-247.

图/表 15

图1

表1

表2

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

表3

图7

图8

图10

图9

图11

图12

参考文献 34

[1]	Janssena M A, Schoon M L, Ke W et al. Scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3): 240-252.
[2]	White G F. Natural Hazards.Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1974: 3-16.
[3]	Adger W N, Kelly P M.Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1999, 34(4): 253-266.
[4]	Li He, Zhang Pingyu, Cheng Yeqing.Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability. Progress in Geography, 2008, 27(2): 18-25.
	[李鹤, 张平宇, 程叶青. 脆弱性的概念及其评价方法. 地理科学进展, 2008, 27(2): 18-25.]
[5]	Li He.Vulnerability of mining cities in Northeast China and its control measures. Areal Research and Development, 2011, 30(5): 78-83.
	[李鹤. 东北地区矿业城市脆弱性特征与对策研究.地域研究与开发, 2011, 30(5): 78-83.]
[6]	Yu Xiaohong, Xia Antao, Liu Yingjun.Research of urban vulnerability and its countermeasures. Journal of Hunan City University, 2007, 28(3): 96-98.
	[喻小红, 夏安桃, 刘盈军. 城市脆弱性的表现及对策. 湖南城市学院学报, 2007, 28(3): 96-98.]
[7]	Feng Zhenhuan.Study of Vulnerability and optimization control of economic development in West China [D]. Tianjin: Tianjin University, 2003.
	[冯振环. 西部地区经济发展的脆弱性与优化调控研究. 天津: 天津大学, 2003.]
[8]	Wang Yan, Fang Chuanglin.Urban vulnerability: Progress and prospect. Progress in Geography, 2013, 32(5): 755-768.
	[王岩, 方创琳. 城市脆弱性研究评述与展望. 地理科学进展, 2013, 32(5): 755-768. ]
[9]	Kochunov B I.Concepts and classification of fragile ecosystem. Li Guodong, trans. Geography Translation Report, 1993, 12(1): 18-23.
	[Kochunov B I.脆弱生态的概念及分类. 李国栋, 译. 地理译报, 1993, 12(1): 18-23. ]
[10]	IPCC. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2000.
[11]	Tang Bo, Liu Xilin, Shang Zhihai.Vulnerability of urban disasters and its evaluation index. Journal of Catastrophology, 2012, 27(4): 6-11.
	[唐波, 刘希林, 尚志海. 城市灾害易损性及其评价指标. 灾害学, 2012, 27(4): 6-11.]
[12]	Adger W N, Brooks N,Bentham G et al. New Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Norwich: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (Technical Report No.7), 2004.
[13]	Adrianto L, Matsuda Y.Developing economic vulnerability indices of environmental disasters in small island regions. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 2002, 22(4): 393-414.
[14]	Li He, Zhang Pingyu.Research progress and prospective applications of vulnerability approach under global change. Progress in Geography, 2011, 30(7): 920-929.
	[李鹤, 张平宇. 全球变化背景下脆弱性研究进展与应用展望. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30(7): 920-929.]
[15]	Holling C S.Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems. Ecosystems, 2001, 4(5): 390-405.
[16]	Fang Chuanglin.Issues of resources and environment protection in China's rapid urbanization process and suggestions on countermeasures. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2009, (5): 468-474.
	[方创琳. 中国快速城市化过程中的资源环境保障问题与对策建议. 中国科学院院刊, 2009, (5): 468-474.]
[17]	Tian Yaping, Chang Hao.Bibliometric analysis of research progress on ecological vulnerability in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(11): 1515-1525.
	[田亚平, 常昊. 中国生态脆弱性研究进展的文献计量分析. 地理学报, 2012, 67(11): 1515-1525.]
[18]	Zhao Dongsheng, Wu Shaohong.Responses of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(5): 602-610.
	[赵东升, 吴绍洪. 气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究. 地理学报, 2013, 68(5): 602-610.]
[19]	Liu Yanhua, Li Xiubin.Fragile Ecological Environment and Sustainable Development. Beijing: The Commercial Press, 2007.
	[刘燕华, 李秀彬. 脆弱性生态环境与可持续发展. 北京: 商务印书馆, 2007.]
[20]	Liu Yi, Huang Jianyi, Ma Li.The assessment of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China based on DEA model. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(7): 1153-1162.
	[刘毅, 黄建毅, 马丽. 基于DEA模型的我国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价. 地理研究, 2010, 29(7): 1153-1162.]
[21]	Su Fei, Zhang Pingyu, Li He.Vulnerability assessment of coal-mining cities' economic systems in China. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(4): 907-916.
	[苏飞, 张平宇, 李鹤. 中国煤矿城市经济系统脆弱性评价. 地理研究, 2008, 27(4):907-916.]
[22]	Su Fei, Zhang Pingyu.Vulnerability assessment of petroleum city's economic system based on set pair analysis: A case study of Daqing City. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(4): 454-464.
	[苏飞, 张平宇. 基于集对分析的大庆市经济系统脆弱性评价. 地理学报, 2010, 65(4): 454-464.]
[23]	Zhao Guojie, Zhang Weixi.A study on vulnerability of the region economy and society: Hebei. Shanghai Economy Research, 2006, (1): 65-69, 96.
	[赵国杰, 张炜熙. 区域经济社会脆弱性研究: 以河北省为例. 上海经济研究, 2006, (1): 65-69, 96.]
[24]	Tian Yaping, Xiang Qingcheng, Wang Peng.Regional coupled human-natural systems vulnerability and its evaluation indexes. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(1): 55-63.
	[田亚平, 向清成, 王鹏. 区域人地耦合系统脆弱性及其评价指标体系. 地理研究, 2013, 32(1): 55-63.]
[25]	Zhang Weixi.A study and assessment on vulnerability of the region development [D]. Tianjin: Tianjin University, 2006.
	[张炜熙. 区域发展脆弱性研究与评估. 天津: 天津大学, 2006.]
[26]	Fang Chuanglin.The Regional Development Planning. Beijing: Science Press, 2000.
	[方创琳. 区域发展规划论. 北京: 科学出版社, 2000.]
[27]	Yang Haijun, Xiao Jingji, Zou Zeqing.On judgment standard of industrialization stage: The flaw and revision of Hoffman Coefficienct: Evidence from Jiangxi & Jiangsu. Collected Essays on Finance and Economics, 2008, (2): 7-14.
	[杨海军, 肖灵机, 邹泽清. 工业化阶段的判断标准: 霍夫曼系数法的缺陷及其修正: 以江西、江苏为例的分析. 财经论丛, 2008, (2): 7-14.]
[28]	Fang Chuanglin, Liu Xiaoli, Lin Xueqin.Stages correction and regularity analysis of urbanization course of China. Arid Land Geography, 2008, 31(4): 512-523.
	[方创琳, 刘晓丽, 蔺雪芹. 中国城市化发展阶段的修正及规律性分析. 干旱区地理, 2008, 31(4): 512-523.]
[29]	IMF. World Economic Outlook Database [DB/OL]. , 2007- 05-01.
[30]	Urban Social and Economic Survey Team of National Bureau of Statistics. China Urban Development Report. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2004.
	[国家统计局城市社会经济调查总队. 中国城市发展报告. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2004.]
[31]	Fang Chuanglin, Wang Deli.Comprehensive measures and improvement of Chinese urbanization development quality. Geographical Research, 2011, 30(11): 1931-1946.
	[方创琳, 王德利. 中国城市化发展质量的综合测度与提升路径. 地理研究, 2011, 30(11): 1931-1946.]
[32]	Ye Yumin.Approach on China's urbanization quality. China Soft Science, 2001, (7): 27-31.
	[叶裕民. 中国城市化质量研究, 中国软科学, 2001, (7): 27-31.]
[33]	China Building Industry Press.National Urban Planning Norms. Beijing: China Architecture Bookstore LLC, 2008.
	[中国建筑工业出版社. 国家城乡规划规范. 北京: 中国建筑书店有限责任公司, 2008.]
[34]	Duan Che.Regional sustainable development evaluation index system and comprehensive evaluation. Technoeconomics & Management Research, 2005, (3): 27-28.
	[段澈. 区域可持续发展评价指标体系及综合评价. 技术经济与管理研究, 2005, (3): 27-28.]

目标层	权重	准则层	权重	指标层	单位	标准值
B1资源脆弱性	0.20	C1资源利用脆弱性指数^①	0.0900	D1万元GDP综合能耗 D2万元GDP水耗 D3万元GDP电耗 D4万元GDP建设用地占用	t标准煤/万元 m³/万元千瓦时/万元 km²/万元	0.4 30 500 7
B1资源脆弱性	0.20	C2资源保障脆弱性指数^②	0.1100	D5水资源保障能力 D6建设用地保障能力	- -	1 1
B2生态环境脆弱性	0.20	C3生态脆弱性指数^③	0.0718	D7建成区绿化覆盖率 D9森林覆盖率 D10干燥度指数^④	% % -	50 27 0.5
B2生态环境脆弱性	0.20	C4环境脆弱性指数^⑤	0.1282	D10万元GDP碳排放量 D11空气质量优良天数比率 D12城市污水集中处理率 D13工业固体废弃物综合利用率 D14生活垃圾无害化处理率	t/万元 % % % %	2.5 100 100 100 100
B3经济脆弱性	0.30	C5经济结构指数^[27-28]	0.0996	D15霍夫曼系数 D16第三产业增加值占GDP比重 D17经济外向度	% % %	1.5 50 0.5
		C6经济效率指数	0.1098	D18投入产出率 D19规模以上工业企业资产负债率^⑥	% -	1 0.6
		C7经济创新指数	0.0906	D20 R&D投入占GDP的比重 D21科技支出占地方财政支出比重	% %	1.75 3
B4社会脆弱性	0.30	C8人类发展指数^[29-30]	0.1209	D22人口自然增长率 D23万人普通中学在校学生数 D24万人拥有医生数 D25人均住房面积 D26人均GDP	‰ 人人 m² 万美元	8 500 30 30 0.55
		C9基础设施脆弱性指数	0.1083	D27百人拥有移动电话数 D28百人拥有国际互联网用户数^⑦ D29建成区供水管道密度 D30建成区排水管道密度 D31人均城市道路面积 D32万人拥有公共电汽车数	部/百人户/百人 km/km² km/km² m² 辆	100 75 15 10 15 40
		C10社会环境脆弱性指数	0.0708	D33城乡差异指数 D34贫困人口比率 D35城镇登记失业率 D36社会保险覆盖率	% % % %	0 5 4 100

城市脆弱性分级	一级	二级	三级	四级	五级
城市脆弱性分级	低脆弱度	较低脆弱度	中脆弱度	较强脆弱度	强脆弱度
脆弱性指数UVI	<0.47	0.48~0.52	0.53~0.57	0.58~0.62	>0.63

区域	资源利用脆弱性指数	资源保障脆弱性指数	生态保护脆弱性指数	环境保护脆弱性指数	经济结构指数	经济效率指数	经济创新指数	人类发展指数	社会环境脆弱性指数	基础设施脆弱性指数
东部	0.0798	0.0338	0.0202	0.0144	0.0307	0.0653	0.0490	0.0339	0.0368	0.0388
中部	0.1256	0.0348	0.0221	0.0215	0.0440	0.0734	0.0619	0.0349	0.0379	0.0501
西部	0.1586	0.0409	0.0281	0.0340	0.0452	0.0792	0.0697	0.0383	0.0490	0.0571