中国石化产业空间组织的评价与优化

doi:10.11821/xb201110004

地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (10): 1332-1342.doi: 10.11821/xb201110004

中国石化产业空间组织的评价与优化

刘鹤^1,2, 金凤君¹, 刘毅¹, 丁金学^1,2, 许旭^1,2

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室, 北京 100101;
2. 中国科学院研究生院, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2011-01-24 修回日期:2011-08-02 出版日期:2011-10-20 发布日期:2011-10-20
作者简介:刘鹤(1984-), 男, 山东沂南人, 博士后, 中国地理学会会员(S110006524M), 主要研究方向为产业地理与区域发展。E-mail: liuh.08b@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-Q10-4); 国家自然科学重点基金项目(40635026)

Evaluation and Optimization of Petrochemical Industrial Spatial Organization in China

LIU He^1,2, JIN Fengjun¹, LIU Yi¹, DING Jinxue^1,2, XU Xu^1,2

1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2011-01-24 Revised:2011-08-02 Published:2011-10-20 Online:2011-10-20
Supported by:
Knowledge Innovation Projects of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCXZ-YW-Q10-4; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40635026

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 基于中国石化产业的发展现状，利用线性规划和ArcGIS 空间分析等手段，对中国石化产业空间组织进行了优化。首先，研究确定了影响石化产业空间组织的各评价指标，建立了由4 大类11 项指标构成的综合评价指标体系，利用层次分析法确定了各指标的权重，以全国 337 个地级行政区为基本单元，在科学评价各地市石化产业布局潜力的基础上，遴选出151 个地级行政单元作为线性规化模型优化选点的基础。然后，基于151 个地级行政单元，利用最大化覆盖模型，识别出100 km、200 km和300 km 3 组服务半径约束下中国炼厂布局点的最佳布局数量及其空间分布，结合中国炼厂分布的实际情况，最终优选出适合中国当前最优布局的52 个炼厂布局点。最后，研究利用ArcGIS 空间分析手段，分别从服务的空间范围和服务的社会经济要素角度，对优选的52 个炼厂布局点进行空间效应模拟，并提取了各炼厂布局点服务范围内的GDP和人口数据，在此基础上，结合原油消耗强度的估算，研究最终确定出中国炼油能力和乙烯产能空间组织的最优结果。

关键词: 石化产业, 空间组织, 布局优化, 最大化覆盖模型, 综合布局系数, 空间效应, 中国

Abstract: Based on current situation of China's petrochemical industry, using linear programming and ArcGIS spatial analysis, this paper optimized the spatial organization of petrochemical industry in China. (1) The paper identified main factors influencing spatial organization of petrochemical industry, and established a comprehensive evaluation index system consisting of four major categories and 11 indicators. Then the weight of each index was determined by AHP. After that, with 337 prefecture-level administrative units as basic ones, through scientific evaluation of their potential comprehensive layout coefficients, the paper selected 151 prefecture-level units as the basis for the choice of optimization site with a linear programming model. (2) Based on the 151 units, using maximum coverage model, the paper identified the optimal number and their spatial distribution in service radiuses of 100 km, 200 km and 300 km. Combined with actual distribution of China's refineries, we summarized general rules between the number of refinery layout points and objective values, and selected layout points of 52 refineries for China. (3) With ArcGIS spatial analysis tools, the paper simulated spatial effect of the 52 optimal refinery layout points for service scope and socio-economic factors respectively, and then extracted GDP and population data of each point within its service scope. Based on that, in combination with estimation of crude oil consumption intensity, the paper finally obtained optimal spatial organization results of refining capacity and ethylene production capacity in China.

Key words: petrochemical industry, spatial organization, layout optimization, maximum coverage model, comprehensive layout coefficient, spatial effect

刘鹤, 金凤君, 刘毅, 丁金学, 许旭. 中国石化产业空间组织的评价与优化[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(10): 1332-1342.

LIU He, JIN Fengjun, LIU Yi, DING Jinxue, XU Xu. Evaluation and Optimization of Petrochemical Industrial Spatial Organization in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(10): 1332-1342.

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中国石化产业空间组织的评价与优化

Evaluation and Optimization of Petrochemical Industrial Spatial Organization in China

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