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1. 上海师范大学地理系,上海 200234
2. 澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织（CSIRO）水土研究所（Land & Water）,堪培拉

Spatial configuration of urban shelters based on simulation using emergency evacuation agent-based model:A case study in Jing'an District, Shanghai
YU Jia1,, WEN Jiahong1, CHEN Yun2, LIAO Banggu1, DU Shiqiang1
1. Department of Geography, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China
2. CSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Abstract

Spatial configuration of urban emergency shelters is one of the hotspot issues in disaster prevention and urban emergency management. The purpose of this study is to conduct spatial configuration of urban shelters which can help urban residents have access to the emergency shelters as soon as possible with less congestion. The spatial configuration model is built on the basis of the agent-based model and multi-criteria decision-making method. Remote sensing image data, high-precision population data, road network data and expert knowledge are integrated in the model. Three types of agents involved in emergency evacuation are designed, which include the government agent, shelter agents and resident agents, to conduct evacuation simulation. A government agent can delimitate the service areas of shelters in accordance with the administrative boundaries and road distances between the positions of residents and the locations of the shelters. Shelter agents can select specified land uses as potentially available shelters for different disasters, generate the service areas of shelters, record the information of the residents in their service areas and do relative statistical work of evacuation processes. Resident agents have a series of attributes, such as ages, positions, and walking speeds. They also have several behaviors, such as reducing speed when walking in the crowd, and helping old people and children. Integrating these three types of agents which are correlated with each other, we can simulate evacuation procedures. The simulation results are utilized to support location-allocation and configuration of emergency shelters. The location-allocation method of this study is based on multi-criteria decision making and weight sensitivity analysis, so that the locations of new shelters can be selected in highly-suitable regions for location-allocation. When the new shelters are allocated, a new round of emergency evacuation simulation will be executed to realize loop optimization of location-allocation based on the new spatial distribution of shelters to generate the final spatial configuration plan. A case study in Jing'an District, Shanghai, China, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the model. The simulation results convinced that the new model can provide detailed planning for spatial configuration of urban shelters, which can help the residents evacuate to nearby shelters as quickly as possible with less congestion risks. The model provides a new methodology to conduct high-quality location-allocation of urban emergency shelters. It can also be extended to conduct similar spatial configuration work in other urban regions for different kinds of emergency shelters.

Keyword: emergency evacuation; agent; shelter; spatial location-allocation; GIS; Jing'an District; Shanghai;
1 引言

2 研究方法

2.1 空间数据获取与处理

$P B ( n ) = ∑ a = 1 A P B ( n , a )$ （1）

$P B ( n , a ) = P S ( a ) × S B ( n ) × F B ( n ) / ∑ i = 1 N S B ( i ) × F B ( i )$ （2）

2.2 应急疏散智能体模型模拟

2.2.1 政府智能体 政府智能体不具有空间属性,但是具备一系列非空间性的属性和行为,对避难所智能体和居民智能体形成约束。其在城市疏散和避难所管理的法规设立上起到重要作用。政府智能体能够约束避难所的服务范围,即指定哪些居民将去往哪个避难所进行疏散避难。它还能对居民组织防灾避灾演练,在灾害发生时帮助和组织居民有序的离开住宅去往就近避难所。疏散过程结束后,政府智能体能够对疏散过程进行统计,形成的统计结果用来支持进一步的分析等。

2.2.2 避难所智能体 避难所智能体的第一项工作是在空间数据模块提供的备选避难所图层中选取备选避难所,如图1研究方法框架所示,比如在地震、大型火灾等灾害情景下,智能体将选择公园、大型绿地和广场作为安置居民的场所;对于洪灾情景下,学校、图书馆、文化中心等场所将被选为备选避难所;突发小规模紧急事件,将选择事件发生周边的绿地或空地作为避难所等。避难所智能体的第二项任务是基于道路网络和政府智能体规定的避难服务责任范围（比如不同行政级别的辖区范围等）生成各避难所的空间服务范围,并记录在该服务范围内的所有居民的相关信息,包括年龄、性别等。该智能体的第三项工作是为每个避难所统计属于其管辖的、应到该场所来避难的居民数量,以及每个居民到达该避难所所需的时间。

2.2.3 居民智能体 城市居民的应急疏散过程具有很高的复杂性、动态性和不确定性,难于完全精确的进行模拟,而智能体技术的“自下而上”的特点能够更好的帮助模拟复杂过程。本文的目标是利用居民疏散模拟的过程,来找出避难所选址和配置中存在的问题,使避难所空间配置得到更科学、合理的规划。因此,居民智能体的设计相比前两种智能体更为复杂。本文中,设置的居民智能体有一系列属性,包括居民的年龄类别、疏散的开始位置（住宅建筑）、终止位置（避难所）、最快行走速度、当前行走速度和当前的位置等。另外,居民智能体需要具备一系列的行为,包括：

（1）在一定的时刻走出住宅建筑。在一栋住宅建筑中可能有几十或者几百个居民,因此不是所有居民能在同一时间走出住宅。在某个时刻,已经走出某住宅建筑的居民数如公式（3）所示：

$N R ( m ) = ∑ t = 0 T ( V B ( m , t ) × TI )$ （3）

$T R ( m , n ) = 1 + n - 1 v B ( m ) × TI × TI , if t < t maxflow t maxflow + 1 + n - t maxflow × v B ( m ) - 1 V B ( m ) × TI × TI , if t ≥ t maxflow$ （4）

（2）寻找住宅建筑到避难所的优化路径。疏散路径的选取有多种方法。本文选取了最短路径、道路宽度因素加权的优化路径和考虑时空道路拥挤度的优化路径3种方法。最短路径方法中,居民智能体在选择疏散路径时,只考虑路网距离因素。道路宽度因素加权优化路径方法中,居民智能体还将趋向于走更为宽敞的道路。而对于考虑时空道路拥挤度的优化路径方法中,居民智能体将根据不同时刻的周边道路的人员拥挤情况,实时调整其疏散路径。

（3）当遇到道路拥挤的情况,降低行走速度。某个居民的行走速度和该居民的最大行走速度（与年龄段相关）以及该居民周边的人员密度有关。降低后的速度可以用公式（5）表示：

$Spee d R = Spee d max , if 1 D i > 1.12 Spee d max × ( 1 D i - 0.25 ) / 0.87 , if 1 D i ≤ 1.12 and D i + 1 < D max 0 , if D i + 1 ≥ D max$ （5）

（4）在政府智能体的组织下,进行疏散避难。居民智能体能够感知政府智能体对其的约束,比如知晓自己在政府智能体规定的哪些避难所的服务范围中;能够根据灾害类型,感知相应开放的避难所智能体,并通过一定程度的防灾避灾演练,能够有序的完成应急疏散过程;遵守政府智能体发布的地方性应急疏散与避难相关的法律法规,比如在受灾及应急事件发生时,对老人和儿童的照看和帮助等。

2.3 应急疏散模拟过程

2.4 评估结果的生成

2.5 满足疏散避难需求的判定

 Figure Option 图1 研究方法框架 Fig. 1 Framework of the method

2.6 决策支持与选址优化

2.6.1 多准则决策及权重敏感性分析 本文中利用AHP（Analytic Hierarchy Process）对避难所选址的影响因子进行多准则决策分析,并通过分析获得的选址适宜性专题图,形成选址方案。但AHP存在的一个缺点是该方法很难判定专家为AHP成对比较矩阵打分的不确定性和不精确性。AHP虽然能够对输入的准则根据重要性排序,但是却不能精确地给出某个准则比另外一个准则重要的程度,因此准则权重常常是争议性和不确定性最大的因素。针对这样的问题,本文利用了Chen等[33]提出的OAT（One-at-a-Time）方法,依照准则相对重要性的指标,在不改变其他元素值的情况下,依次改变AHP成对比较矩阵中一个元素的值,来实现准则权重敏感性的评估。根据敏感性评估的结果,修正AHP矩阵,形成最终的准则权重。用这些权重对各个准则因子图层进行加权求和,形成选址适宜性专题图。在选址高适宜性的区域内,根据土地利用现状,和避难资源配置的决策方案,选定新避难所的位置。

2.6.2 基于评估结果的调整措施 根据2.4章节中生成的评估结果,对研究区的避难所空间布局和应急疏散的道路条件提出相关的调整措施,包括道路拓宽、已有避难所的扩建等。道路拓宽的方案根据智能体模拟之后获得的道路路段拥挤情况来拟定,将最容易发生拥挤,拥挤情况严重的路段拟定为需扩建的路段。对每个避难所的人员容量进行分析,并将此人员容量和该避难所服务范围内的居民数量进行对比,如果人员容量无法满足服务范围内居民疏散避难的需要,则拟将该避难所进行扩建。

3 案例分析

3.1 研究区域

 Figure Option 图2 上海市静安区南部5个街道的地理位置 Fig. 2 Location of five southern subdistricts of Jing'an District, Shanghai, China

3.2 数据处理和方法参数设定

 Figure Option 图3 上海市静安区的空间数据 Fig. 3 Spatial data of the study area of Jing'an District, Shanghai

3.3 智能体模拟与评价结果

 Figure Option 图4 上海市静安区4个时间步对应的模拟图层 Fig. 4 Simulation layers in four different time steps of Jing'an District, Shanghai

 Figure Option 图5 到达避难所的居民数、道路上(正在疏散)居民数和仍在住宅建筑中的居民数 Fig. 5 Number of persons arriving at shelters, persons on roads (in evacuation) and persons in residential buildings

 Figure Option 图6 基于路网距离和基于智能体方法的上海市静安区各避难所总疏散时间 Fig. 6 Road network distance based and agent-based total evacuation times of shelters of Jing'an District, Shanghai

 Figure Option 图7 上海市静安区避难所人口容量和服务范围内需接纳居民数 Fig. 7 Population capacities and numbers of residents in service areas of shelters of Jing'an District, Shanghai

 Figure Option 图8 上海市静安区标识道路中的拥挤路段：整个疏散过程中各个路段的拥挤时间 Fig. 8 Finding hotspots of road congestion: Congestion time of road segments in the evacuation process of Jing'an District, Shanghai

 Figure Option 图9 多准则决策（AHP）中的评价因子图层及其权重 Fig. 9 Evaluation criteria layers and their weights in multi-criteria decision making (AHP)

3.4 决策选址与循环校验

 Figure Option 图10 上海市静安区新建避难所的选址适宜性和选址结果 Fig. 10 Location-allocation suitability and location-allocation results of new shelters of Jing'an District, Shanghai

 Figure Option 图11 第二轮疏散模拟中,到达避难所的居民数、道路上(正在疏散)居民数和仍在住宅建筑中的居民数 Fig. 11 Number of persons arrived at shelters, persons on roads (in evacuation) and persons in residential buildings in the second round of evacuation simulation

 Figure Option 图12 基于智能体方法的上海市静安区第二轮各避难所总疏散时间 Fig. 12 Agent-based total evacuation times of shelters in the second round simulation of Jing'an District, Shanghai

 Figure Option 图13 上海市静安区第二轮标识道路中的拥挤路段：整个疏散过程中各个路段的拥挤时间 Fig. 13 Finding hotspots of road congestion in the second round simulation: Congestion time of road segments in the evacuation process of Jing'an District, Shanghai

4 结论与讨论
4.1 结论

4.2 讨论

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

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An unbiased estimate with the lowest variance is thus a common goal in spatial sampling and inference. Reaching this objective can be addressed by sample allocation in an area to obtain a restricted objective function.      [本文引用:2] [14] Huang Dianjian, Wu Zongzhi, Cai Sijing, et al.Emergency adaption of urban emergency shelter: Analytic hierarchy process-based assessment method. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2006, 15(1): 52-58. [本文引用:1] [黄典剑, 吴宗之, 蔡嗣经, 等. 城市应急避难所的应急适应能力: 基于层次分析法的评价方法. 自然灾害学报, 2006, 15(1): 52-58.] [15] Nappi M, Souza J.Disaster management: hierarchical structuring criteria for selection and location of temporary shelters. Natural Hazards, 2015, 75(3): 2421-2436. Humanitarian logistics refers to the processes and systems involving the mobilization of people, resources and expertize to help vulnerable communities affected by natural disasters and complex emergencies, reducing the loss of lives and relieving human suffering. With regard to disaster management, one of the most important tasks is decision making. The lack of criteria with respect to the selection and location of temporary shelters, for example, can lead to unforeseen factors, threatening the quality of the logistics operation as a whole. A decision-making process can be aided by several models such as multi-criteria models, which address problems whose objectives require a global and comprehensive view of the situation. Among the possible perspectives of analysis, there is the identification of criteria that are relevant to decision making. In that sense, this paper presents the criteria and important aspects that should be addressed by a multi-criteria model for risk management, specifically in regard to moving and temporary sheltering the population affected by a disaster. Qualitative and quantitative aspects were identified, summing up to ten criteria. These criteria and their sub-criteria were hierarchically structured.      [本文引用:1] [16] Kar B, Hodgson M E.A GIS-based model to determine site suitability of emergency evacuation shelters. Transactions in GIS, 2008, 12(2): 227-248. Abstract In recent years, the increase in the number of hurricanes and other costal hazards in the US pose a tremendous threat to the residents of coastal states. According to the National Hurricane Center, Florida is the most vulnerable coastal state to hurricanes. Mitigation policies have been formulated to reduce mortality and provide emergency services by evacuating people from the hazard zone. Many of these evacuees, particularly the elderly or lower income populations, rely on evacuation shelters for temporary housing. Because of the cost and limited use, evacuation shelters are almost exclusively dual use shelters where the primary purpose of the facility is for some other public function (e.g. school, hospital, etc.). In 2000, the estimated shortage of public shelter spaces in Florida was about 1.5 million. The purpose of this study was to rank the existing and candidate shelters (schools, colleges, churches and community centers) available in the state based on their site suitability. The research questions examined in this study include: (1) How many candidate shelters are located in physically suitable areas (e.g. not in a flood prone area, not near hazardous facilities, etc.)?; (2) How many existing shelters are located in physically un suitable areas, but in socially suitable areas (situated in areas with demand)?; (3) How many alternative existing and/or candidate shelters with high/very high physical suitability are located near physically un suitable existing shelters and thus, may be better choices for a shelter?; and (4) How many existing shelters located in physically un suitable areas are not near alternative existing and/or candidate shelters? A Geographic Information System-based suitability model integrating Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) with a Pass/Fail screening technique was implemented for the 17 counties of Southern Florida. It was found that 48% of the existing shelters are located in physically unsuitable areas. Out of all the candidate shelters, 57% are located in physically unsuitable areas. For 15 of the existing shelters in unsuitable locations, no alternative candidate or existing shelter with medium to high physical suitability exists within 10 miles (16.1 km).      [本文引用:1] [17] Lee Y L, Ishii H, Tai C A.Earthquake shelter location evaluation considering road structure. IEEE The 8th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications. Kaohsiung: IEEE, 2008, 1: 495-497. [本文引用:1] [18] Chu J, Su Y.The application of TOPSIS method in selecting fixed seismic shelter for evacuation in cities. Systems Engineering Procedia, 2012, 3: 391-397. Selecting appropriate fixed seismic shelters for evacuation is key to earthquake engineering in cities. The author establishes an evaluation system comprising 3 first-level indices and 9 second-level indices related to influential factors such as risk of hazard, location & size and rescue facilities. The indices are generated by use of AHP and entropy methods. Finally, fixed seismic shelters for evacuation are selected by applying TOPSIS method, which proves the applicability of this method.      [本文引用:1] [19] Ma D X, Chu J Y, Liu X N, et al.Study on evaluation of earthquake evacuation capacity in village based on multi-level grey evaluation. Systems Engineering Procedia, 2011, 1: 85-92. [本文引用:1] [20] Cha Y J, Agrawal A K, Kim Y, et al.Multi-objective genetic algorithms for cost-effective distributions of actuators and sensors in large structures. Expert Systems with Applications, 2012, 39(9): 7822-7833. This paper proposes a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) for optimal placements of control devices and sensors in seismically excited civil structures through the integration of an implicit redundant representation genetic algorithm with a strength Pareto evolutionary algorithm 2. Not only are the total number and locations of control devices and sensors optimized, but dynamic responses of structures are also minimized as objective functions in the multi-objective formulation, i.e., both cost and seismic response control performance are simultaneously considered in structural control system design. The linear quadratic Gaussian control algorithm, hydraulic actuators and accelerometers are used for synthesis of active structural control systems on large civil structures. Three and twenty-story benchmark building structures are considered to demonstrate the performance of the proposed MOGA. It is shown that the proposed algorithm is effective in developing optimal Pareto front curves for optimal placement of actuators and sensors in seismically excited large buildings such that the performance on dynamic responses is also satisfied.      [本文引用:1] [21] Yu J, Wen J, Jiang Y. Agent-based evacuation simulation for spatial allocation assessment of urban shelters. International Conference on Intelligent Earth Observing and Applications, Proc. of SPIE, 2015, 9808: 98081N1-10. The construction of urban shelters is one of the most important work in urban planning and disaster prevention. The spatial allocation assessment is a fundamental pre-step for spatial location-allocation of urban shelters. This paper introduces a new method which makes use of agent-based technology to implement evacuation simulation so as to conduct dynamic spatial allocation assessment of urban shelters. The method can not only accomplish traditional geospatial evaluation for urban shelters, but also simulate the evacuation process of the residents to shelters. The advantage of utilizing this method lies into three aspects: (1) the evacuation time of each citizen from a residential building to the shelter can be estimated more reasonably; (2) the total evacuation time of all the residents in a region is able to be obtained; (3) the road congestions in evacuation in sheltering can be detected so as to take precautionary measures to prevent potential risks. In this study, three types of agents are designed: shelter agents, government agents and resident agents. Shelter agents select specified land uses as shelter candidates for different disasters. Government agents delimitate the service area of each shelter, in other words, regulate which shelter a person should take, in accordance with the administrative boundaries and road distance between the person's position and the location of the shelter. Resident agents have a series of attributes, such as ages, positions, walking speeds, and so on. They also have several behaviors, such as reducing speed when walking in the crowd, helping old people and children, and so on. Integrating these three types of agents which are correlated with each other, evacuation procedures can be simulated and dynamic allocation assessment of shelters will be achieved. A case study in Jing'an District, Shanghai, China, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the method. A scenario of earthquake disaster which occurs in nighttime was set to simulate the evacuation process of the residents to the earthquake shelter candidates in the study area. The simulation results convinced that the proposed method can better evaluate the spatial configuration of urban shelter than traditional GIS methods. The method can help local decision-makers preferably handle shelter planning and emergency evacuation management problems. It can also be extended to conduct similar assessment work in other urban regions for different kinds of shelters.      [本文引用:1] [22] Gwynne S, Galea E R, Lawrence P J, et al.A review of the methodologies used in the computer simulation of evacuation from the built environment. Building and Environment, 1999, 34(6): 741-749. Computer based analysis of evacuation can be performed using one of three different approaches, namely optimisation, simulation or risk assessment. Furthermore, within each approach different means of representing the enclosure, the population, and the behaviour of the population are possible. The myriad of approaches which are available has led to the development of some 22 different evacuation models. This article attempts to describe each of the modelling approaches adopted and critically review the inherent capabilities of each approach. The review is based on available published literature.      [本文引用:1] [23] Lindell M K.EMBLEM2: An empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate model. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2008, 42(1): 140-154. This article describes a simple, rapid method for calculating evacuation time estimates (ETEs) that is compatible with research findings about evacuees鈥 behavior in hurricanes. This revision of an earlier version of the empirically based large scale evacuation time estimate method (EMBLEM) uses empirical data derived from behavioral surveys and allows local emergency managers to calculate ETEs by specifying four evacuation route system parameters, 16 behavioral parameters, and five evacuation scope/timing parameters. EMBLEM2 is implemented within a menu-driven evacuation management decision support system (EMDSS) that local emergency managers can use to calculate ETEs and conduct sensitivity analyses to examine the effects of plausible variation in the parameters. In addition, they can run EMDSS in real time (less than 10聽min of run time) to recalculate ETEs while monitoring an approaching hurricane. The article provides an example using EMDSS to calculate ETEs for San Patricio County Texas and discusses directions for further improvements of the model.      [本文引用:1] [24] Hashemi M, Alesheikh A A.GIS: Agent-based modeling and evaluation of an earthquake-stricken area with a case study in Tehran, Iran. Natural Hazards, 2013, 69(3): 1895-1917. Although many researchers have attempted to prevent or mitigate damages, estimate vulnerabilities and control natural catastrophes, an important phase of disaster management that has received less attention is the challenge of managing people and resources directly after an incident. Because earthquakes can be one of the most disastrous events, especially in Iran, the purpose of this article is to develop an easy-to-use multi-agent simulation and modeling environment for the assessment of different disaster management scenarios as measured in terms of saving additional lives. The earthquake-induced damages to buildings, streets and citizens are the inputs to the proposed model. Five mobile agent types: citizen, paramedic, street-opener, police and robber; one stationary agent type: gas valve; and five inactive agent types: building, street, shelter, hospital and fire station form the context of the model. Disaster managers are provided with customizable settings for the number and attributes of the agents in the user interface and can assess various statistical and visual results to determine the optimal number and characteristics of the agents as well as evaluate the effectiveness of the location of shelters. To simulate the extent of a calamity, this model is tested on a small region in Tehran, Iran. The agents are created and input to the model automatically via vector GIS data layers and the entire model is vector-based. A comparison between the results of two different scenarios highlights that increasing the number of street-openers and paramedics would not create the desired improvement as long as these agents are focused on fire stations and hospitals. Additionally, the impact of street blockages is significant after an earthquake, and therefore, the potential capacity of the street-openers demonstrated in the simulations points to the necessity of retrofitting buildings and widening streets before an earthquake occurs.      [本文引用:1] [25] Chen P, Zhang J, Zhang L, et al.Evaluation of resident evacuations in urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters based on scenario simulation: Daoli District (Harbin, China) as an example. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2014, 11: 9964-9980. With the acceleration of urbanization, waterlogging has become an increasingly serious issue. Road waterlogging has a great influence on residents’ travel and traffic safety. Thus, evaluation of residents’ travel difficulties caused by rainstorm waterlogging disasters is of great significance for their travel safety and emergency shelter needs. This study investigated urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters, evaluating the impact of the evolution of such disasters’ evolution on residents’ evacuation, using Daoli District (Harbin, China) as the research demonstration area to perform empirical research using a combination of scenario simulations, questionnaires, GIS spatial technology analysis and a hydrodynamics method to establish an urban rainstorm waterlogging numerical simulation model. The results show that under the conditions of a 10-year frequency rainstorm, there are three street sections in the study area with a high difficulty index, five street sections with medium difficulty index and the index is low at other districts, while under the conditions of a 50-year frequency rainstorm, there are five street sections with a high difficulty index, nine street sections with a medium difficulty index and the other districts all have a low index. These research results can help set the foundation for further small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disaster scenario simulations and emergency shelter planning as well as forecasting and warning, and provide a brand-new thought and research method for research on residents’ safe travel.      PMID:25264676      [本文引用:1] [26] Helbing D, Farkas I, Vicsek T.Simulating dynamical features of escape panic. Nature, 2000, 47(5): 487-490. Abstract One of the most disastrous forms of collective human behaviour is the kind of crowd stampede induced by panic, often leading to fatalities as people are crushed or trampled. Sometimes this behaviour is triggered in life-threatening situations such as fires in crowded buildings; at other times, stampedes can arise during the rush for seats or seemingly without cause. Although engineers are finding ways to alleviate the scale of such disasters, their frequency seems to be increasing with the number and size of mass events. But systematic studies of panic behaviour and quantitative theories capable of predicting such crowd dynamics are rare. Here we use a model of pedestrian behaviour to investigate the mechanisms of (and preconditions for) panic and jamming by uncoordinated motion in crowds. Our simulations suggest practical ways to prevent dangerous crowd pressures. Moreover, we find an optimal strategy for escape from a smoke-filled room, involving a mixture of individualistic behaviour and collective 'herding' instinct. DOI:10.1038/35035023      PMID:11028994      [本文引用:1] [27] Murakami Y, Minami K, Kawasoe T, et al.Multi-agent simulation for crisis management. IEEE Workshop on Knowledge Media Networking, 2002, 2: 135-139. Traditional crowd simulators are based on a simple numerical analysis of inputs such as the positions of people and structures; they do not consider leadership. Since leaders (in terms of evacuations) are present in many real-world situations, the validity of evacuation simulations can be increased through their introduction. We assess the results of a real-world evacuation experiment to develop more realistic scenarios for simulation. The simulations produced by the improved scenarios are found to closely mimic the experimental results. This work shows that scenario-based agent systems such as FlatWalk and FreeWalk offer excellent promise in simulating evacuations more realistically.      [本文引用:1] [28] Keßel A, Klüpfel H, Wahle J, et al.Microscopic simulation of pedestrian crowd motion. Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, Berlin, 2002, 5(2): 193-200. [本文引用:1] [29] Uno K, Kashiyama K.Development of simulation system for the disaster evacuation based on multi-agent model using GIS. Tsinghua Science Technology, 2008, 13(Suppl.1): 348-353. This paper presents a simulation system for the disaster evacuation based on multi-agent model considering geographical information. This system consists of three parts, the modeling for the land and buildings using GIS data, the analysis of disaster evacuation using multi-agent model, and the visualization for the numerical results using the virtual reality technique. By introducing the numerical solver of the natural disaster to the present system, it is possible to evaluate not only the damage of structure but also the damage of human being. Furthermore, it is possible to investigate the appropriate evacuation route by the simulation. The Dijkstra algorithm is used to obtain shortest route to the refuge. In addition, the visualization using virtual reality technique is curried out to understand the feeling of refugee. The present system is applied to the evacuation analysis by the flood flow in urban area and is shown to be a useful tool to investigate the damage by natural disasters.      [本文引用:1] [30] Wu Jianhong, Weng Wenguo, Ni Shunjiang.Urban emergency evacuation plans based on GIS and multi-agent systems. Journal of Tsinghua University, 2010, 50(8): 1168-1172. [本文引用:1] [吴建宏, 翁文国, 倪顺江. 基于GIS和Multi-Agent的城市应急疏散. 清华大学学报, 2010, 50(8): 1168-1172.] 构建了基于地理信息系统（GIS）和multi-agent系统的城市应急疏散仿真框架。该 仿真平台基于Repast仿真平台开发,利用Open Map组件读取GIS道路网络数据,作为人员疏散的地理环境。构建了人员和避难空间的agent模型,定义人员的避难空间和路径选择等主观决策行为规则, 并通过基于网络的交通流模型模拟人群在GIS路网上的运动。以中国某城市路网数据为基础,利用该仿真平台研究了城市应急疏散中人员对避难场所的选择规律以 及信息发布对疏散结果的影响。仿真结果表明：在疏散过程中加强有关避难空间信息的发布可缩短总体的疏散时间。 [31] Dong P, Ramesh S, Nepali A.Evaluation of small-area population estimation using LiDAR, Landsat TM and parcel data. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2010, 31(21): 5571-5586. [本文引用:1] [32] Silva´n-ca´rdenas J L, Wang L, Rogerson P, et al. Assessing fine-spatial-resolution remote sensing for small-area population estimation. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2010, 31(21): 5605-5634. Not Available      [本文引用:1] [33] Chen Y, Yu J, Khan S.The spatial framework for weight sensitivity analysis in AHP-based multi-criteria decision making. Environmental Modelling and Software, 2013, 48: 129-140. Criteria weights determined from pairwise comparisons are often the greatest contributor to the uncertainties in the AHP-based multi-criteria decision making (MCDM). During an MCDM process, the weights can be changed directly by adjusting the output from a pairwise comparison matrix, or indirectly by recalculating the matrix after varying its input. Corresponding weight sensitivity on multi-criteria evaluation results is generally difficult to be quantitatively assessed and spatially visualized. This study developed a unique methodology which extends the AHP-SA model proposed by Chen etal. (2010) to a more comprehensive framework to analyze weight sensitivity caused by both direct and indirect weight changes using the one-at-a-time (OAT) technique. With increased efficiency, improved flexibility and enhanced visualization capability, the spatial framework was developed as AHP-SA2 within a GIS platform. A case study with in-depth discussion is provided to demonstrate the new toolset. It assists stakeholders and researchers with better understanding of weight sensitivity for characterising, reporting and minimising uncertainty in the AHP-based spatial MCDM.      [本文引用:1] [34] Roytman M Y.Principles of Fire Safety Standards for Building Constructions. New Delhi: Amerind Publish Co, 1975: 1-429. [本文引用:1]