地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (11): 2660-2672.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202111005

• 气候变化与地表过程 • 上一篇    下一篇

1981—2019年全球气温变化特征

沈贝蓓1(), 宋帅峰2, 张丽娟1(), 王子晴2, 任崇1, 李永生3,4   

  1. 1.哈尔滨师范大学寒区地理环境监测与空间信息服务黑龙江省重点实验室,哈尔滨 150025
    2.北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京 100875
    3.黑龙江省气候中心,哈尔滨 150030
    4.黑龙江省龙云气象科技有限责任公司气象院士工作站,哈尔滨 150030
  • 收稿日期:2020-09-14 修回日期:2021-08-31 出版日期:2021-11-25 发布日期:2022-01-25
  • 通讯作者: 张丽娟(1965-), 女, 河北唐山人, 教授, 博士, 主要从事生态系统模拟研究。E-mail: zlj19650205@163.com
  • 作者简介:沈贝蓓(1985-), 女, 山东淄博人, 博士生, 主要从事地表过程与环境演变研究。E-mail: 467856268@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41771067);国家自然科学基金项目(U20A2082);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(ZD2020D002)

Changes in global air temperature from 1981 to 2019

SHEN Beibei1(), SONG Shuaifeng2, ZHANG Lijuan1(), WANG Ziqing2, REN Chong1, LI Yongsheng3,4   

  1. 1. Heilongjiang Province Key Laboratory of Geographical Environment Monitoring and Spatial Information Service in Cold Regions, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China
    2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    3. Heilongjiang Climate Center, Harbin 150030, China
    4. Heilongjiang Longyun Meteorological Information Technology Co., Ltd. Academician Workstation, Harbin 150030, China
  • Received:2020-09-14 Revised:2021-08-31 Published:2021-11-25 Online:2022-01-25
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771067);National Natural Science Foundation of China(U20A2082);Key Projects of Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(ZD2020D002)

摘要:

1981—2019年全球气温变化特征是揭示全球气温变化的空间差异性以及实现全球共同应对气候变化的关键。本文基于7套再分析数据,采用气候变化速率及空间插值等分析方法,分析了1981—2019年全球气温变化时空特征及主要国家气温变化。结果表明:1981—2019年全球陆地气温以0.320 ℃/10a的速率呈极显著升高趋势,年平均气温增加了0.835 ℃;南、北半球陆地气温变化速率分别为0.147 ℃/10a、0.362 ℃/10a,均呈极显著增加趋势,分别增加了0.874 ℃、0.828 ℃。全球陆地80%面积上气温呈现显著增加趋势,年平均气温升高速率最大的区域位于80°N~90°N,其次是70°N~80°N、60°N~70°N,高纬大于中、低纬,格陵兰地区、乌克兰、俄罗斯等中高纬度国家或地区增温速率较快,尤以格陵兰地区增加速率最快,气温变化速率为0.654 ℃/10a;增温最慢的地区主要位于新西兰和赤道附近的南美洲、东南亚、非洲南部等地,气温变化速率不足0.15 ℃/10a。本文统计的146个国家中,年平均气温呈显著增加趋势的国家136个,占93%;气温无显著变化的国家10个,占6.849%。1981—2019年全球增温2.0 ℃以上、1.5 ℃以上、1.0 ℃以上的国家分别为4个、34个、68个,分别约占统计国家的2.740%、23.288%、46.575%。本文认为1998年以来全球并没有出现气温变暖停滞的现象。

关键词: 全球气温变化, 局部空间, 全球主要国家, 1981—2019年

Abstract:

The determination of temperature changes in major countries since the 1980s is a key scientific method to reveal the spatial difference of global temperature change and to achieve a common global climate change. Based on seven sets of reanalysis data, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal characteristics of global temperature change and the temperature change of major countries from 1981 to 2019 by using climate tendency rate and spatial interpolation. The results revealed that the global land air temperature in the stydy period varied at a rate of 0.320 °C/10a, exhibiting a significant increasing trend, with a cumulative increase of 0.835 °C. The mean annual land air temperature in the northern and southern hemispheres varied respectively at rates of 0.362 °C/10a and 0.147 °C/10a, displaying significant increasing trends, with cumulative increases of 0.828 °C and 0.874 °C,respectively. The global land surface air temperature displayed an increasing trend, with more than 80% of the land surfaces showing a significant temperature increase. Across the globe, the change rates of annual mean air temperature were higher at high latitudes than at middle and low latitudes, with the highest change rates in regions at latitudes of 80°N-90°N, followed by the second-highest rates in regions from 70°N-80°N, and the third-highest rates from 60°N-70°N. Greenland, Ukraine, and Russia had the highest increase rates of annual mean air temperature, especially Greenland, which experienced a temperature tendency rate of 0.654 °C/10a. The regions with the lowest increase rates of annual mean air temperature were mainly in New Zealand and areas on or near the equator including South America, Southeast Asia and Southern Africa, where the temperature tendency rates were < 0.15 °C/10a. Among the 146 countries surveyed in this paper, 136 countries (93%) showed a significant warming trend, 10 (6.849%) had no significant change in temperature, and only 3 countries showed a downward trend. Among them, since the 1980s, there are 4, 34, and 68 countries with global warming above 2.0 ℃, 1.5 ℃, and 1.0 ℃, respectively, accounting for 2.740%, 23.288% and 46.575% of the countries concerned in this study. This paper held that there had been no global warming hiatus since 1998.

Key words: global air temperature changes, local space, major countries, since the 1980s