地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (6): 1350-1365.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202106003
林李月1,2(), 朱宇1,3(
), 林坤4, 柯文前1,2
收稿日期:
2020-09-27
修回日期:
2021-04-20
出版日期:
2021-06-25
发布日期:
2021-08-25
通讯作者:
朱宇(1961-), 男, 福建闽清人, 博士, 研究员, 主要从事人口迁移流动、城市化与区域发展研究。E-mail: Zhu300@fjnu.edu.cn作者简介:
林李月(1985-), 女, 福建霞浦人, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事人口迁移与城乡发展研究。E-mail: lly30@163.com
基金资助:
LIN Liyue1,2(), ZHU Yu1,3(
), LIN Kun4, KE Wenqian1,2
Received:
2020-09-27
Revised:
2021-04-20
Published:
2021-06-25
Online:
2021-08-25
Supported by:
摘要:
流动人口的城镇购房意愿和空间偏好直接关系到流动人口市民化的路径选择与城镇化的高质量发展。基于2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和统计数据,对比研究了流动人口流入地和流出地城镇购房意愿的空间特征和影响因素。研究发现:① 流动人口城镇购房意愿具有层次性和两栖性特征,还有小部分流动人口拥有多地城镇购房意愿。② 流入地和流出地城镇购房意愿在空间上形成“此高彼低”互补的分布特征。在人口流入地区和以跨省流动为主的东南区域,流动人口流入地城镇购房意愿低但流出地城镇购房意愿高;而在人口流出地和以省内流动为主的区域,情况恰与此相反。③ 城镇购房意愿主要受流动人口个体特征和城市住房市场因素的影响,但不同要素对两类城镇购房意愿的影响各异。受教育年限、管理技术人员、不完整家庭化流动、家庭生命周期和城市房价仅对流入地城镇购房意愿有显著影响;已在城镇购房和流动次数仅对流出地城镇购房意愿有促进作用;户口性质、制造加工业人员、流动范围、本地居留时间和城市规模则在两类意愿中起着相反方向的影响效应。
林李月, 朱宇, 林坤, 柯文前. 两栖生计下中国流动人口城镇购房意愿的空间特征和影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(6): 1350-1365.
LIN Liyue, ZHU Yu, LIN Kun, KE Wenqian. Spatial pattern and determinants of migrants' urban housing purchase intention under the binary-locational household arrangements[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(6): 1350-1365.
表3
变量描述性统计
变量名 | 变量解释 | 平均值 | 标准差 |
---|---|---|---|
个体层面(N = 163259) | |||
性别 | 0=女,1=男 | 0.52 | 0.50 |
年龄 | 连续变量(单位:岁) | 35.52 | 10.52 |
年龄平方项 | 连续变量 | 1372.63 | 843.59 |
受教育年限 | 数值型变量(单位:年) | 10.18 | 3.20 |
户口性质 | 0=农业,1=非农业和居民 | 0.17 | 0.38 |
职业类型 | 管理技术办事人员=1,商业服务业人员=2,制造加工业人员=3,其他=4 | 2.56 | 0.91 |
家庭在本地的月均收入 | 加1取自然对数 | 8.78 | 0.62 |
家庭住房资产 | 无住房资产=1,流出地村自建住房=2,流出地城镇有住房=3,流入地城镇有住房=4 | 2.05 | 1.25 |
本地滞留时间 | 连续变量(单位:年) | 5.48 | 5.63 |
流动范围 | 0=省内流动,1=省际流动 | 0.66 | 0.47 |
是否多次流动 | 0=否,1=是 | 0.26 | 0.44 |
流动模式 | 非家庭化流动=1,不完整家庭化流动=2,完整家庭化流动=3 | 2.29 | 0.81 |
家庭生命周期 | 未婚期家庭=1,新婚期家庭=2,学龄前家庭=3,学龄期家庭=4,青少年期家庭=5,成年期家庭=6,老年期家庭=7 | 3.61 | 1.72 |
城市层面(N = 281) | |||
人均GDP | 连续变量(单位:万元) | 5.14 | 2.98 |
在岗职工平均工资 | 连续变量(单位:万元) | 5.43 | 1.10 |
房价 | 连续变量(单位:万元) | 0.53 | 3.14 |
房价平方项 | 连续变量 | 0.38 | 0.85 |
是否有商品房限购政策 | 0=否,1=是 | 0.14 | 0.35 |
城市规模 | 1=小城市,2=中等城市,3=Ⅱ型大城市,4=Ⅰ型大城市,5=特大城市,6=超大城市 | 2.56 | 1.01 |
表4
流动人口城镇购房意愿影响因素的回归结果
模型1 (流入地) | 模型2 (流出地) | 模型3 (流入地) | 模型4 (流出地) | |
---|---|---|---|---|
个体/家庭变量 | ||||
性别(女) | ||||
男 | 1.038** | 1.108*** | 1.038** | 1.108*** |
年龄 | 1.046*** | 1.020** | 1.046*** | 1.020** |
年龄平方项 | 0.9993*** | 0.9996*** | 0.9993*** | 0.9996*** |
受教育年限 | 1.070*** | 1.001 | 1.070*** | 1.001 |
户口性质(农业) | ||||
非农业和居民 | 1.089*** | 0.854*** | 1.089*** | 0.854*** |
职业类型(其他) | ||||
管理/专业技术人员 | 1.103*** | 0.985 | 1.103*** | 0.986 |
商业服务业人员L | 1.014 | 1.081 | 1.013 | 1.082 |
制造加工业人员 | 0.729*** | 1.285*** | 0.730*** | 1.285*** |
家庭在本地月均收入 | 1.540*** | 1.163*** | 1.541*** | 0.150*** |
家庭住房资产(无) | ||||
流出地村自建房 | 1.178*** | 1.144** | 1.177*** | 1.144** |
流出地城镇自购房 | 0.945 | 2.300*** | 0.945 | 2.301*** |
流入地城镇自购房 | 0.906 | 0.278*** | 0.905 | 0.279*** |
流动范围(省内流动) | ||||
跨省流动 | 0.719*** | 1.367*** | 0.720*** | 1.362*** |
本地居留时间 | 1.021*** | 0.979*** | 1.021*** | 0.979*** |
是否多次流动(否) | 1.018 | 1.154*** | 1.019 | 1.154*** |
流动模式(非家庭化流动) | ||||
不完整家庭化流动 | 0.931** | 1.014 | 0.931** | 1.014 |
完整家庭化流动 | 1.391*** | 0.829*** | 1.391*** | 0.829*** |
家庭生命周期(未婚期家庭) | ||||
新婚期家庭 | 0.866*** | 1.023 | 0.865*** | 1.023 |
学龄前家庭 | 1.020 | 0.976 | 1.020 | 0.976 |
学龄家庭 | 0.976 | 1.030 | 0.976 | 1.031 |
青少年期家庭 | 0.881*** | 0.986 | 0.881*** | 0.987 |
成年期家庭 | 0.925* | 1.045 | 0.925* | 1.046 |
老年期家庭 | 0.885* | 1.049 | 0.885* | 1.049 |
流入地城市变量 | ||||
人均GDP | 1.009 | 0.972 | ||
在岗职工平均工资 | 1.015 | 1.041 | ||
房价 | 0.270*** | 0.930 | ||
房价平方项 | 1.303*** | 1.156 | ||
是否限购(否) | 1.253* | 1.290** | ||
城市规模 | 1.108** | 0.894** | ||
控制变量 | ||||
流出地区域(东部地区) | ||||
中部地区 | 0.878*** | 0.954 | 0.876*** | 0.956 |
西部地区 | 0.840*** | 0.909** | 0.839*** | 0.910** |
东北地区 | 1.125** | 0.808*** | 1.123** | 0.811*** |
流出地空间位置(乡村) | ||||
城镇 | 1.092*** | 1.249*** | 1.092*** | 1.248*** |
截距项 | 0.002*** | 0.016*** | 0.002*** | 0.019*** |
R2 | 0.1217 | 0.4417 | 0.1598 | 0.4781 |
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