黄河流域生态经济走廊绿色发展时空分异特征与影响因素识别

doi:10.11821/dlxb202103016

地理学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (3): 726-739.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202103016

黄河流域生态经济走廊绿色发展时空分异特征与影响因素识别

郭付友¹^,²(), 佟连军³(), 仇方道⁴, 李一鸣¹

1.曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,日照 276800
2.日照市国土空间规划与生态建设重点实验室,日照 276800
3.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春 130102
4.江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,徐州 221116

收稿日期:2020-03-12 修回日期:2020-12-12 出版日期:2021-03-25 发布日期:2021-05-25
通讯作者: 佟连军(1960-), 吉林长春人, 研究员, 博导, 主要从事区域生态经济研究。E-mail: tonglj@neigae.ac.cn
作者简介:郭付友(1987-), 男, 山东菏泽人, 博士, 副教授, 硕士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110013493M), 研究方向为区域可持续发展。E-mail: guofy945@nenu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41801105);国家自然科学基金项目(41771138);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2018BD002);山东省社会科学规划研究(18DJJJ14)

Spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of green development in the eco-economic corridorof the Yellow River Basin

GUO Fuyou¹^,²(), TONG Lianjun³(), QIU Fangdao⁴, LI Yiming¹

1. College of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276800, Shandong, China
2. Rizhao Key Laboratory of Territory Spatial Planning and Ecological Construction, Rizhao 276800, Shandong, China
3. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, CAS, Changchun 130102, China
4. School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, China

Received:2020-03-12 Revised:2020-12-12 Published:2021-03-25 Online:2021-05-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801105);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771138);National Natural Science Foundation of Shandong(ZR2018BD002);Social Science Planning Research Project of Shandong(18DJJJ14)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于绿色发展科学内涵,综合构建了黄河流域绿色发展的评价指标体系,并采用熵值法、空间自相关分析、地理探测器模型等多种计量方法研究了2005—2017年黄河流域生态经济走廊绿色发展时空分异特征与驱动因素,结果如下：① 黄河流域绿色发展主要来源于规模化扩张与总量增长的外部驱动作用,热衷于发展速度与规模,忽视质量与效率的内涵式提升势必导致内生驱动作用不足与不可持续性;② 研究时限内黄河流域绿色发展低水平区不断减少,较高水平区稍有增加,但低水平与中低水平区占比长期稳定在65%以上,说明黄河流域绿色发展质量有待于进一步提升;③ 2005—2017年间黄河流域61地级市整体存在较为明显的空间依存关系,且绿色发展水平具有相对明显的空间俱乐部收敛特征,流域内两极分化现象较为明显;④ 经济发展水平、科学技术与政府调控始终是黄河流域绿色发展的高作用力影响因子,因子交互作用后对黄河流域绿色发展解释力远超单因子,反映出黄河流域绿色发展的驱动因素具有复杂性特征。

关键词: 绿色发展, 时空分异, 影响因素, 地理探测器, 黄河流域

Abstract:

Based on the scientific connotation of green development, a comprehensive evaluation index system for green development in the Yellow River Basin was constructed, and various measurement methods such as entropy method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and geographical detector model were used to study the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and the influencing factors of the green development in the eco-economic corridor of the Yellow River Basin. The results are obtained as follows: (1) The green development in the Yellow River Basin mainly originates from the external driving effects of large-scale expansion and the growth of total volume. Focusing only on pursuing the speed and scale of development but ignoring the connotative improvement of quality and efficiency will inevitably lead to the insufficiency of internal driving effects and unsustainability. (2) The number of areas with lower level of green development in the study area decreased continuously while that with a higher-level of green development rose slightly during the limited study period. However, the proportion of the numbers of areas with the lower level and medium-low level of green development remained above 65% for a long time, indicating that the level of green development needs further improvement. (3) From 2005 to 2017, the 61 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin generally showed relatively obvious spatial dependencies, and the green development level displayed a relatively obvious characteristic of spatial club convergence. The phenomenon of polarization in the study area was obvious. (4) The economic development level, science and technology level and government regulation are still the leading factors influencing the green development, and the explanatory power of interactions between factors for the green development far exceeds that of a single factor. This reflects the driving factors for green development in the Yellow River Basin are complex.

Key words: green development, spatio-temporal differentiation, influencing factor, geographical detector, Yellow River Basin

郭付友, 佟连军, 仇方道, 李一鸣. 黄河流域生态经济走廊绿色发展时空分异特征与影响因素识别[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(3): 726-739.

GUO Fuyou, TONG Lianjun, QIU Fangdao, LI Yiming. Spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of green development in the eco-economic corridorof the Yellow River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(3): 726-739.

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系统层	准则层	指标层	指标含义	W_j(2005)	W_j(2011)	W_j(2017)
绿色发展水平(LS)	经济绿化度(JL)	人均GDP	反映经济总体发展水平	0.0503	0.0553	0.0268
		人均社会消费品零售总额	反映市场消费能力	0.0534	0.0460	0.0626
		第二产业增加值/第三产业增加值	反映产业结构特征	0.0314	0.0255	0.0335
		二三产业增加值总额	反映产业规模特征	0.0730	0.0662	0.0735
		人均实际利用外资	反映经济外向依赖能力	0.1868	0.1547	0.1519
	社会绿化度(SL)	万人拥有公共汽车数	衡量公共服务设施情况	0.0358	0.0337	0.0715
		人均城市道路面积	反映社会基础设施情况	0.0256	0.0441	0.0681
		人均供水总量	反映社会供水保障能力	0.0907	0.0986	0.0954
		人均全年用电量	反映社会供电保障能力	0.1178	0.1217	0.0817
		人均城乡居民储蓄存款余额	反映社会整体富裕水平	0.0329	0.0831	0.0247
	环境绿化度(HL)	人均绿地面积	反映生态环境保育水平	0.0365	0.0596	0.0816
		人均工业废水排放量	反映污染排放水平	0.0024	0.0086	0.0022
		人均工业SO₂排放量	反映污染排放水平	0.0058	0.0036	0.0011
		万元GDP水耗	反映资源利用水平	0.0119	0.0015	0.0017
		万元GDP电耗	反映资源利用水平	0.0007	0.0008	0.0066
	政府支持度(GS)	科学技术支出/一般公共预算支出	反映科学技术支持力度	0.0784	0.0311	0.0468
		产业高级化系数	反映产业优化改造力度	0.0621	0.0677	0.0406
		民营经济发展指数	反映市场环境支持力度	0.0282	0.0314	0.0453
		人均固定资产投资	反映政府投资强度	0.0454	0.0399	0.0505
		市场组织结构指数	反映企业规模化程度	0.0311	0.0270	0.0339

年份	流域	经济绿化度	社会绿化度	环境绿化度	政府支持度	绿色发展水平
2005	上游地区	0.0541	0.0712	0.0262	0.0513	0.2015
	中游地区	0.0400	0.0400	0.0258	0.0392	0.1450
	下游地区	0.0866	0.0579	0.0322	0.0442	0.2209
2011	上游地区	0.0818	0.0575	0.0168	0.0468	0.2029
	中游地区	0.0488	0.0402	0.0155	0.0448	0.1493
	下游地区	0.0624	0.0872	0.0193	0.0537	0.2226
2017	上游地区	0.0455	0.1049	0.0343	0.0437	0.2284
	中游地区	0.0476	0.0459	0.0185	0.0343	0.1463
	下游地区	0.0795	0.0664	0.0256	0.0457	0.2173

年份	流域	经济绿化度	社会绿化度	环境绿化度	政府支持度	绿色发展水平
2005	上游地区	0.0541	0.0712	0.0262	0.0513	0.2015
	中游地区	0.0400	0.0400	0.0258	0.0392	0.1450
	下游地区	0.0866	0.0579	0.0322	0.0442	0.2209
2011	上游地区	0.0818	0.0575	0.0168	0.0468	0.2029
	中游地区	0.0488	0.0402	0.0155	0.0448	0.1493
	下游地区	0.0624	0.0872	0.0193	0.0537	0.2226
2017	上游地区	0.0455	0.1049	0.0343	0.0437	0.2284
	中游地区	0.0476	0.0459	0.0185	0.0343	0.1463
	下游地区	0.0795	0.0664	0.0256	0.0457	0.2173

年份	高高(HH)	低高(LH)	高低(HL)	低低(LL)
2005	潍坊、石嘴山、莱芜、德州、鄂尔多斯、济南、淄博、呼和浩特、乌海、包头、东营、青岛(12)	朔州、商洛、聊城、武威、忻州、泰安、乌兰察布、滨州、巴彦淖尔(9)	西宁、银川、焦作、济宁、洛阳、郑州、西安、太原、兰州(9）	其余地级市(31)
2011	潍坊、石嘴山、莱芜、鄂尔多斯、济南、淄博、呼和浩特、乌海、包头、东营、青岛、郑州(12)	朔州、商洛、聊城、武威、忻州、泰安、乌兰察布、滨州、巴彦淖尔、德州、吴忠、晋中、榆林、阳泉(14)	西宁、银川、焦作、洛阳、太原、西安、兰州、三门峡(8)	其余地级市(27)
2017	潍坊、石嘴山、莱芜、鄂尔多斯、济南、淄博、呼和浩特、乌海、包头、东营、青岛、银川、滨州(13)	朔州、商洛、聊城、泰安、忻州、乌兰察布、巴彦淖尔、吴忠、德州(9)	西宁、西安、郑州、洛阳、鹤壁、三门峡、兰州、太原(8)	其余地级市(31)

年份	高高(HH)	低高(LH)	高低(HL)	低低(LL)
2005	潍坊、石嘴山、莱芜、德州、鄂尔多斯、济南、淄博、呼和浩特、乌海、包头、东营、青岛(12)	朔州、商洛、聊城、武威、忻州、泰安、乌兰察布、滨州、巴彦淖尔(9)	西宁、银川、焦作、济宁、洛阳、郑州、西安、太原、兰州(9）	其余地级市(31)
2011	潍坊、石嘴山、莱芜、鄂尔多斯、济南、淄博、呼和浩特、乌海、包头、东营、青岛、郑州(12)	朔州、商洛、聊城、武威、忻州、泰安、乌兰察布、滨州、巴彦淖尔、德州、吴忠、晋中、榆林、阳泉(14)	西宁、银川、焦作、洛阳、太原、西安、兰州、三门峡(8)	其余地级市(27)
2017	潍坊、石嘴山、莱芜、鄂尔多斯、济南、淄博、呼和浩特、乌海、包头、东营、青岛、银川、滨州(13)	朔州、商洛、聊城、泰安、忻州、乌兰察布、巴彦淖尔、吴忠、德州(9)	西宁、西安、郑州、洛阳、鹤壁、三门峡、兰州、太原(8)	其余地级市(31)

黄河流域生态经济走廊绿色发展时空分异特征与影响因素识别

Spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of green development in the eco-economic corridorof the Yellow River Basin

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探测因子	2005年				2011年				2017年
探测因子	上游	中游	下游	流域	上游	中游	下游	流域	上游	中游	下游	流域
x₁	0.4321	0.0350	0.3148	0.1116	0.1275	0.1621	0.0947	0.0216	0.2608	0.1055	0.8255	0.2274
x₂	0.8919	0.6758	0.8230	0.8102	0.8947	0.5424	0.8449	0.7701	0.8270	0.6718	0.6611	0.5498
x₃	0.5922	0.3919	0.3598	0.4946	0.6849	0.3002	0.2723	0.3405	0.4327	0.1307	0.0643	0.0806
x₄	0.7995	0.4841	0.3164	0.4050	0.5384	0.4707	0.5413	0.4384	0.3510	0.4670	0.7847	0.4550
x₅	0.5759	0.4526	0.3447	0.2124	0.7595	0.6378	0.3693	0.2814	0.5039	0.3981	0.7546	0.3266
x₆	0.1298	0.0067	0.3023	0.1318	0.2658	0.0507	0.4159	0.2438	0.1754	0.0431	0.3045	0.1576
x₇	0.1686	0.0584	0.1496	0.0840	0.2024	0.0353	0.0254	0.0805	0.1597	0.1540	0.0734	0.0274
x₈	0.2220	0.1307	0.0243	0.1904	0.1837	0.0768	0.1667	0.1830	0.6149	0.0452	0.1786	0.1040
x₉	0.0385	0.1288	0.6951	0.1001	0.1595	0.0940	0.4865	0.1270	0.1431	0.1456	0.6959	0.1128

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