北上广深城市人口预测及其资源配置

doi:10.11821/dlxb202102008

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人口数量持续增长是困扰超大型城市发展的重要因素,适度人口为研究人口增长下的城市资源合理分配提供了较好的思路。本文以适度人口为切入点,利用可能—满意度模型测算北京、上海、广州和深圳4座超大型城市2035年适度人口规模,同时利用灰色BP神经网络模型预测各市2035年常住人口规模,并基于适度人口规模测算和常住人口规模预测结果对各市部分资源的配置、规划情况进行倒逼分析,提出人口增长下的资源配置方案。研究发现：① 在可能—满意度水平为0.6的条件下,北上广深2035年适度人口规模分别为2152.69万人、2309.68万人、1498.93万人和1352.19万人,均未超出政府规划红线;② 预测结果显示,北上广深2035年常住人口规模均将超出适度人口规模和政府规划红线,表现为适度人口规模<政府规划红线<常住人口规模;③ 从适度人口角度出发,在不影响经济社会发展与居住满意度前提下,为应对未来人口增长,2035年北京发电量和公园绿地面积需达到当前水平的2倍以上;上海发电量、公园绿地面积和公共交通营运车辆分别需达到当前水平的2.27倍、2.22倍和2.35倍;广州能源供应量和发电量需达到当前水平的3倍以上;深圳能源供应量、发电量和卫生机构床位数需达到当前水平的3倍以上。本文有利于为协调大型城市人口与资源之间的可持续发展提供科学依据。

关键词: 超大城市, 适度人口, 人口增长, 可能—满意度, 资源配置

Abstract:

Continuous population growth is an important factor affecting the development of megacities. Optimum population can advance the rational allocation of urban resources amidst the continuous growth. By taking the optimum population as a pointcut, this study first uses the possibility-satisfiability (P-S) model to calculate the optimum population size of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in 2035, and then uses the grey back propagation neural network model to predict the resident population of all the four first-tier cities in 2035. Finally, it analyzes all the cities' allocation and planning of resources or infrastructure based on the results, and proposes optimum resource allocation to address an unexpected population growth. The results show that: (1) When the P-S degree is 0.6, the optimum population size of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in 2035 is 21.5269 million, 23.0968 million, 14.9893 million and 13.5219 million, respectively, all below the red line of government planning. (2) The resident population of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen in 2035 will exceed the moderate population size and the red line of government planning, while the moderate population size will be lower than the red line of government planning, and the red line of government planning will be lower than that of the resident population. (3) From the perspective of optimum population, in order to cope with future population growth without affecting economic and social development and residential satisfaction, in 2035, the power generation and green areas of Beijing are expected to reach twice the current levels; power generation, green areas, and public transport vehicles of Shanghai will be 2.27, 2.22 and 2.35 times the current levels, respectively; the energy supply and power generation of Guangzhou are expected to reach three times the current levels; the energy supply, power generation, and the number of beds in health institutions of Shenzhen will be three times the current levels. This study provides a scientific basis for coordinating the sustainable development of population and urban resources in large cities.

Key words: megacity, optimum population, population growth, possibility-satisfiability, resource allocation

王勇, 解延京, 刘荣, 张昊. 北上广深城市人口预测及其资源配置[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(2): 352-366.

WANG Yong, XIE Yanjing, LIU Rong, ZHANG Hao. Population prediction and resource allocation in megacities from the optimum population perspective: A case study of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 352-366.

图/表 7

表1

表2

可能—满意度指标体系

指标类型	可能性指标 (总量指标)	满意性指标 (人均指标)	权重
指标类型	可能性指标 (总量指标)	满意性指标 (人均指标)	北京	上海	广州	深圳
经济水平	$P 1$ GDP(亿元)	$S 1$ 人均GDP(元/人)	0.040	0.050	0.045	0.043
	$P 2$ 第二产业增加值(亿元)	$S 2$ 第二产业人均增加值(元/人)	0.032	0.035	0.032	0.044
	$P 3$ 第三产业增加值(亿元)	$S 3$ 第三产业人均增加值(元/人)	0.043	0.060	0.049	0.041
	$P 4$ 社会消费品零售总额(亿元)	$S 4$ 社会消费品人均零售额(元/人)	0.038	0.065	0.043	0.035
	$P 5$ 进出口总额(亿美元)	$S 5$ 人均进出口总额(美元/人)	0.031	0.035	0.036	0.055
	$P 6$ 旅游外汇收入(万美元)	$S 6$ 人均旅游外汇收入(美元/人)	0.035	0.026	0.044	0.026
	$P 7$ 就业人口(万人)	$S 7$ 就业人口占总人口比例(%)	0.039	0.058	0.043	0.042
资源供给	$P 8$ 耕地面积(万hm²)	$S 8$ 人均耕地面积(m²/人)	0.032	0.025	0.034	0.027
	$P 9$ 全年用水总量(亿m³)	$S 9$ 全年人均用水总量(m³/人)	0.078	0.054	0.053	0.038
	$P 10$ 全年用电总量(亿kw·h)	$S 10$ 全年人均用电总量(kw·h)	0.036	0.035	0.040	0.047
	$P 11$ 能源消费总量(万t标准煤)	$S 11$ 人均能源消费总量(t标准煤/人)	0.030	0.032	0.041	0.050
生态环境	$P 12$ 废水排放总量(万t)	$S 12$ 人均废水排放总量(t/人)	0.024	0.029	0.042	0.090
	$P 13$ 生活垃圾产生量(万t)	$S 13$ 人均生活垃圾产生量(t/人)	0.032	0.030	0.047	0.039
	$P 14$ 公园绿地面积(hm²)	$S 14$ 人均公园绿地面积(m²/人)	0.060	0.030	0.048	0.054
社会生活	$P 15$ 卫生机构床位数(张)	$S 15$ 每万人卫生机构床位数(张/万人)	0.050	0.052	0.045	0.043
	$P 16$ 道路面积(万m²)	$S 16$ 人均道路面积(m²/人)	0.072	0.026	0.064	0.024
	$P 17$ 房屋建筑施工面积(万m²)	$S 17$ 人均房屋建筑施工面积(m²/人)	0.037	0.054	0.080	0.052
	$P 18$ 公共交通营运车辆(辆)	$S 18$ 每万人公共交通营运车辆(辆/万人)	0.056	0.059	0.044	0.072
	$P 19$ R&D经费内部支出(亿元)	$S 19$ 人均R&D经费内部支出(元/人)	0.037	0.062	0.042	0.040
	$P 20$ 快递件数(万件)	$S 20$ 人均快递件数(件/人)	0.073	0.131	0.049	0.059
	$P 21$ 大学生在校生数(万人)	$S 21$ 每万人大学生在校生数(人)	0.069	0.021	0.034	0.033
	$P 22$ 中小学生在校生数(万人)	$S 22$ 每万人中小学生在校生数(人)	0.055	0.032	0.044	0.044

表2

表3

表4

图1

表5

表6

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	北京	上海	广州	深圳
常住人口规模(万人)	2154.20	2423.78	1490.44	1302.66
人口密度(人/km²)	1313.00	3823.00	2005.00	6484.00
城镇化率(%)	86.50	88.10	86.38	99.75
距2035年政府规划红线增长空间(万人)	145.80	76.22	509.56	697.34

		指标权重	不同可能—满意度水平下的适度人口规模(万人)
		指标权重	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.9
北京	经济水平	0.258	2369.18	2074.52	1808.55	1566.81
	资源供给	0.176	2115.50	2009.62	1908.72	1812.40
	生态环境	0.117	2132.10	2095.99	2059.79	2023.49
	社会生活	0.449	2048.23	1847.57	1668.80	1507.98
	总适度人口		2152.69	1963.71	1792.83	1637.05
上海	经济水平	0.329	2377.26	2043.57	1750.50	1490.66
	资源供给	0.146	2241.70	2059.94	1893.69	1740.76
	生态环境	0.090	2389.90	2315.40	2246.14	2181.48
	社会生活	0.436	2259.59	2009.63	1789.42	1593.41
	总适度人口		2309.68	2057.67	1834.73	1635.64
广州	经济水平	0.292	1678.59	1449.27	1242.36	1054.47
	资源供给	0.167	1347.01	1274.49	1207.58	1145.58
	生态环境	0.138	1613.60	1562.81	1513.06	1464.26
	社会生活	0.403	1392.45	1251.31	1126.23	1013.94
	总适度人口		1498.93	1355.97	1227.11	1109.90
深圳	经济水平	0.286	1402.11	1214.48	1046.74	895.45
	资源供给	0.162	1326.60	1223.00	1127.00	1037.59
	生态环境	0.183	1314.95	1278.04	1241.31	1204.57
	社会生活	0.369	1343.19	1160.99	990.04	853.58
	总适度人口		1352.19	1207.75	1074.43	959.60

	北京		上海		广州		深圳
	真实值	预测值	真实值	预测值	真实值	预测值	真实值	预测值
2014年	2151.60	2158.20	2425.68	2452.80
2015年	2170.50	2218.10	2415.27	2479.70
2016年	2172.90	2274.60	2419.70	2503.50	1404.35	1425.00	1190.84	1112.40
2017年	2170.70	2327.00	2418.33	2524.80	1449.84	1499.60	1252.83	1125.60
MAPE(%)	3.60		2.91		2.45		8.37

	北京	上海	广州	深圳
2017年常住人口规模	2170.70	2418.33	1449.84	1252.83
2035年政府规划红线	2300.00	2500.00	2000.00	2000.00
2035年适度人口规模(ω=0.6)	2152.69	2309.68	1498.93	1352.19
2035年常住人口规模	2659.80	2663.20	2193.70	2028.00

		北京	上海	广州	深圳
耕地面积(万hm²)	现状值	21.37	27.94	9.21	0.37
	理想值	38.49	40.94	16.92	1.00
	比值	1.80	1.47	1.84	2.71
全年用水总量(亿m³)	现状值	39.50	104.80	23.81	19.58
	理想值	75.54	178.73	66.67	38.28
	比值	1.91	1.71	2.80	1.96
全年用电总量(亿kw·h)	现状值	1066.89	1526.77	869.59	884.49
	理想值	2607.68	3463.91	3726.29	4544.81
	比值	2.44	2.27	4.29	5.13
能源消费总量(万t标准煤)	现状值	7132.80	11858.96	5961.97	4272.64
	理想值	13640.36	24263.49	19272.48	14499.72
	比值	1.91	2.05	3.23	3.39
公园绿地面积(hm²)	现状值	31019	19805	26863	19980
	理想值	64385	44036	62043	65629
	比值	2.08	2.22	2.31	3.28
卫生机构床位数(张)	现状值	120557	134607	90222	43868
	理想值	246164	225959	260944	187698
	比值	2.04	1.68	2.89	4.28
公共交通营运车辆(辆)	现状值	30966	17461	17260	17430
	理想值	61925	40974	39130	47694
	比值	2.00	2.35	2.27	2.74