基于多主体模型的典型区域退耕还林工程实施空间模拟

doi:10.11821/dlxb202009012

地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (9): 1983-1995.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202009012

基于多主体模型的典型区域退耕还林工程实施空间模拟

杨微石¹(), 戴尔阜²(), 郑度³^,⁴, 董玉祥¹, 尹乐³^,⁴, 马良²^,⁴, 王隽雄⁵, 潘理虎⁶, 秦世鹏⁶

1. 中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州 510275
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室拉萨高原生态系统研究站,北京 100101
3. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
4. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
5. 陕西师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,西安 710119
6. 太原科技大学计算机科学与技术学院,太原 030024

收稿日期:2019-01-21 修回日期:2020-04-24 出版日期:2020-09-25 发布日期:2020-11-25
通讯作者: 戴尔阜
作者简介:杨微石(1985-), 男, 江西赣州人, 博士, 研究方向为土地利用模拟。E-mail: 43106363@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41571098);国家自然科学基金项目(41530749);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA19040304);国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502903);国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508805);中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-4)

Spatial simulation of "Grain to Green Program" implementation in a typical region based on agent-based model

YANG Weishi¹(), DAI Erfu²(), ZHENG Du³^,⁴, DONG Yuxiang¹, YIN Le³^,⁴, MA Liang²^,⁴, WANG Junxiong⁵, PAN Lihu⁶, QIN Shipeng⁶

1. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
2. Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
3. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
5. School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China
6. College of Computer Science and Technology, Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China

Received:2019-01-21 Revised:2020-04-24 Online:2020-09-25 Published:2020-11-25
Contact: DAI Erfu
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571098);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41530749);Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19040304);National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFC1502903);National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1508805);Key Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-4)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用变化是全球变化的重要驱动力,模拟是研究土地变化重要的方法。退耕还林是中国山区土地利用变化的重要原因。当前退耕还林模拟在综合社会与空间途径方面的不足限制了退耕还林模拟的空间精度及后续社会效益研究。结合社会和空间途径精确模拟退耕还林的空间过程可为该工程实施提供科学依据。本文以云南省东川区铜都镇为研究区,基于人口普查数据、地理环境数据、实地调研数据,综合考虑农民、农户和政府3类主体,基于多主体模型构建了退耕还林工程实施的空间模型,模拟了2010—2015年铜都镇具有空间特征的农户年收入、农户/政府退耕意愿和退耕还林工程空间实施过程。研究发现退耕还林工程实施主要与坡度、交通和农户收入有关,与土壤肥力相关性较小,坡度25°~30°的耕地占了81.47%,离道路0~2 km交通条件较好的地段占56.37%,农户年收入较低的区域退耕还林比例较高,且退耕还林工程的实施显著提高了铜都镇收入,2010—2015年户均收入提高了1475元。本文模拟结果空间精度为91.12%。本文构建的退耕还林工程实施空间模拟方法可为其它区域提供方法借鉴,以期为中国生态保护和精准扶贫等工程实施提供科学支撑。

关键词: 退耕还林工程, 多主体模型, 土地利用, 铜都镇, 山地

Abstract:

Landuse change is an essential driving force of global climate change. Dynamic simulations are helpful for understanding and explaining the changing rules and characteristics of the land system. The "Grain to Green Program" (GTGP) is a critical contributing factor to landuse change in China's mountainous areas. Presently, the deficiency of integrated social and spatial approaches in the simulation of the "GTGP" limits the spatial accuracy of the social benefits simulation and its subsequent research. The accurate simulation of the "GTGP", by combining social and spatial approaches, can provide scientific evidence for the completion of this project. Taking Tongdu Town, Dongchuan district in Yunnan province as the research area, this study identified three kinds of agents: farmers, farmer households, and the government based on census, geographical information and field survey data. In addition, this research constructed a regional spatial simulation of the "GTGP" implementation based on agent-based model. It conducted spatial simulations of Tongdu Town from 2011 to 2015, including the annual income of farmer households, the willingness of farmer households and the government towards the program, and the spatial processes implementation of the "GTGP". The results showed that the implementation of the "GTGP" was mainly related to the slope, the traffic, and the income of farmer households. Specifically, 81.47% of the "GTGP" program conducted in this areas was on slopes of 25°-30°, and 56.37% of them was 0-2 km away from the road with convenient traffic conditions, and the proportion of the "GTGP" areas with low annual income of farmers was relatively high. The correlation between "GTGP" areas and soil fertility was low. The implementation of the project significantly enhanced the revenue of the study area, with an average household income increase of 1475 yuan from 2010 to 2015. The spatial accuracy of the simulation results was 91.12%. The spatial simulation methods constructed in this study can provide references for the implementation of the "GTGP" in other regions, which can contribute to applications of ecological protection and targeted poverty alleviation programs in China.

Key words: Grain to Green Program, agent-based model, land use, Tongdu Town, mountainous areas

杨微石, 戴尔阜, 郑度, 董玉祥, 尹乐, 马良, 王隽雄, 潘理虎, 秦世鹏. 基于多主体模型的典型区域退耕还林工程实施空间模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(9): 1983-1995.

YANG Weishi, DAI Erfu, ZHENG Du, DONG Yuxiang, YIN Le, MA Liang, WANG Junxiong, PAN Lihu, QIN Shipeng. Spatial simulation of "Grain to Green Program" implementation in a typical region based on agent-based model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1983-1995.

图/表 13

图1

表1

区域退耕还林工程实施空间模拟数据列表"

数据类别	数据项	数据来源
主体属性数据	农户家庭规模比例	人口普查数据、实地调研
	年龄结构
	生育率(分年龄段)
	死率亡(分年龄段)
	农业人口总量
	打工收入(分年龄段)
耕地收入数据	同海拔最高肥力耕地最大年收入( $Incom e Agri · Max$ )	实地调研
	耕地坡度系数(α_SD)
	耕地肥力等级系数(α_SQ)
	耕地年交通费用(Cost_Tra)
	单位耕地最低需求劳动力(Labor_Min)
地理环境数据	海拔	中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心、遥感影像处理、部门调研等
	坡度等级
	土壤肥力等级
	土地利用类型
	离公路网距离
	离城市中心距离
	行政区划
退耕数据	退耕还林工程面积指标	部门调研

表1

图2

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图12

参考文献 29

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基于多主体模型的典型区域退耕还林工程实施空间模拟

Spatial simulation of "Grain to Green Program" implementation in a typical region based on agent-based model

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