地理学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (2): 240-254.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202002003
收稿日期:
2018-02-23
修回日期:
2019-10-30
出版日期:
2020-02-25
发布日期:
2020-04-25
作者简介:
古恒宇(1994-), 男, 广东河源人, 博士生, 研究方向为空间人口学、区域分析与规划。E-mail: henry. gu@pku.edu.cn
基金资助:
GU Hengyu1,2, MENG Xin1,3, SHEN Tiyan1(), CUI Nana4
Received:
2018-02-23
Revised:
2019-10-30
Published:
2020-02-25
Online:
2020-04-25
Supported by:
摘要:
流动人口居留意愿的影响因素往往存在显著的空间分异特征,然而既有研究对此关注较少。基于2015年中国流动人口动态监测数据,运用半参数地理加权回归(SGWR)模型,结合k均值聚类法,对中国城市流动人口居留意愿影响因素的空间分异特征展开研究。结论如下:① 流动人口居留意愿主要受流动人口群体自身特征的影响,受流入地的影响相对较弱;② 社会经济因素与流动人口居留意愿的关系紧密,人口、家庭及流动特征因素同样产生影响,收入、婚姻、跨省流动等因素对流动人口居留意愿产生抑制作用,而住房支出、参保率、子女个数等因素则产生促进作用;③ 各影响因素总体上呈现带状的空间分异模式,可概括为“E-W”“N-S”“NE-SW”“SE-NW”4种。民族、家庭等因素的正向影响自北向南递减,参保率、未婚率、二产就业等因素的影响自西北向东南递减,子女个数及人均GDP的影响自东北向西南递减。东部经济较发达地区高收入流动人口的居留意愿相对更弱,华南地区住房支出较高的流动人口居留意愿相对更强。④ 全国可划分为四大影响区,其中,华北地区、华中地区、华东地区受多因素共同影响;西北地区及部分西南地区主要受人口及社会因素的影响;东北三省及内蒙古东部地区主要受经济及家庭因素的影响;华南地区及部分中、东、西南部地区,除住房支出外,受大部分因素的影响相对最小。最后,本文对中国流动人口的服务与管理提出相应建议。
古恒宇, 孟鑫, 沈体雁, 崔娜娜. 中国城市流动人口居留意愿影响因素的空间分异特征[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(2): 240-254.
GU Hengyu, MENG Xin, SHEN Tiyan, CUI Nana. Spatial variation of the determinants of China's urban floating population's settlement intention[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(2): 240-254.
表1
变量描述及预期效应
变量类型 | 变量名称 | 变量描述 | 预期效应 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
流动人口特征 | 人口变量 | AGE | 城市流动人口平均年龄(岁) | + |
SEX | 流动人口性别比例(%) | 未知 | ||
MARRY | 未婚流动人口比重(%) | - | ||
ETHNIC | 少数民族流动人口比重(%) | 未知 | ||
SCHOOL | 流动人口平均受教育年限(年)① | + | ||
流动特征变量 | STAY | 流入地平均停留时间(年) | + | |
DIST | 跨省流动比重(%) | 未知 | ||
社会变量 | HIRE | 流动人口中雇员比重(%) | - | |
AGRI | 农业户口流动人口比重(%) | - | ||
INSUR | 城镇职工保险参保率(%) | + | ||
SINDUS | 第二产业就业流动人口比重(%) | + | ||
DRIFT | 无固定职业流动人口比重(%) | - | ||
经济变量 | INCOME | 流动人口平均收入(元) | + | |
HOUSING | 家庭每月住房支出(元) | + | ||
PAYMENTS | 家庭总收入与总支出比(%) | + | ||
家庭变量 | LIV | 家庭同住人数(人) | + | |
CHILD | 流动人口子女个数(人) | + | ||
流入城市特征 | 经济变量 | PGDP | 流入地人均GDP(万元) | + |
GDPI | 流入地年GDP增长率(%) | + | ||
SAV | 人均城乡居民年末储蓄余额(元) | + | ||
社会变量 | DENS | 市辖区人口密度(人/km2) | + | |
EMP | 流入地就业人数(人) | + | ||
UNEMP | 流入地在岗职工平均失业率(%) | - | ||
WAGE | 流入地在岗职工平均工资(元) | + | ||
教育水平变量 | TEACH | 流入地人均小学教师数(人/人) | + |
表2
OLS模型、GWR模型及SGWR模型总体回归结果
模型1:OLS模型 | 模型2:传统GWR模型 | 模型3:SGWR模型 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGE | 0.0016 | 0.3942 | 0.0018 | 0.4226 | 0.0012 | 0.2731 | ||
SEX | 0.0055 | 0.4848 | 0.0049 | 0.4330 | 0.0048 | 0.4231 | ||
MARRY | -0.4552** | 4.0304 | -0.4461** | 3.8601 | -0.4566** | 3.9238 | ||
ETHNIC | 0.1733* | 2.1338 | 0.1893* | 2.1730 | 0.1968* | 2.1989 | ||
SCHOOL | -0.0246* | 2.0710 | -0.0213 | 1.7384 | -0.0209 | 1.6877 | ||
STAY | 0.0177** | 3.9468 | 0.0179** | 3.7273 | 0.0202** | 3.9823 | ||
DIST | -0.2008** | 6.1205 | -0.2154** | 6.3245 | -0.2193** | 6.3742 | ||
INCOME | -1.5270* | 2.1863 | -1.6669* | 2.3516 | -1.6902* | 2.3657 | ||
HIRE | 0.0520 | 0.8212 | 0.0472 | 0.7093 | 0.0503 | 0.7491 | ||
AGRI | -0.0988 | 0.9629 | -0.0649 | 0.6227 | -0.0648 | 0.6194 | ||
INSUR | 0.2494** | 3.0624 | 0.2798** | 3.3896 | 0.2785** | 3.3462 | ||
SINDUS | -0.1651* | 2.5394 | -0.1607* | 2.3969 | -0.1581* | 2.3335 | ||
DRIFT | -0.2125 | 0.9911 | -0.1220 | 0.5354 | -0.1137 | 0.4912 | ||
HOUSING | 0.4989* | 1.9758 | 0.5784* | 2.2298 | 0.5993* | 2.2868 | ||
LIV | 0.0837** | 3.4278 | 0.0761** | 3.0288 | 0.0718** | 2.8044 | ||
CHILD | 0.2270** | 3.1028 | 0.1861* | 2.3878 | 0.1789* | 2.2643 | ||
PAYMENTS | 0.0193 | 0.7178 | 0.0252 | 0.9336 | 0.0261 | 0.9661 | ||
PGDP | 0.1045** | 2.9659 | 0.0910* | 2.5095 | 0.0879* | 2.4039 | ||
GDPI | -0.0016 | 0.6464 | -0.0013 | 0.4975 | -0.0010 | 0.4019 | ||
SAV | -0.0197 | 0.5751 | -0.0193 | 0.5571 | -0.0192 | 0.5533 | ||
DENS | 0.0163 | 0.7163 | 0.0239 | 1.0346 | 0.0258 | 1.1056 | ||
EMP | 0.0108 | 1.3097 | 0.0110 | 1.3219 | 0.0107 | 1.2934 | ||
UNEMP | -0.0894 | 0.4513 | -0.0739 | 0.3381 | -0.1083 | 0.5534 | ||
WAGE | -0.0570 | 0.7534 | -0.0507 | 0.6202 | -0.0468 | -0.5620 | ||
TEACH | -0.0001 | 0.2983 | 0.0001 | 0.3507 | 0.0001 | 0.3672 | ||
常量 | 0.4748 | 1.4295 | 0.4417 | 1.3039 | 0.4624 | 1.3562 | ||
样本数量 | 282 | 282 | 282 | |||||
R2 | 0.6055 | 0.6594 | 0.6665 | |||||
调整后R2 | 0.5653 | 0.5930 | 0.5995 | |||||
AICc | -456.8397 | -467.1891 | -470.2394 | |||||
AICc减小值 | 10.3494 | 13.3997 |
表3
流动人口居留意愿影响区划分
变量 | Ⅰ类区 | Ⅱ类区 | Ⅲ类区 | Ⅳ类区 |
---|---|---|---|---|
PGDP | 0.092 | 0.086 | 0.103 | 0.077 |
MARRY | -0.448 | -0.512 | -0.441 | -0.435 |
DIST | -0.214 | -0.240 | -0.169 | -0.232 |
INCOME | -1.757 | -1.512 | -1.802 | -1.680 |
INSUR | 0.276 | 0.302 | 0.276 | 0.267 |
SINDUS | -0.163 | -0.174 | -0.160 | -0.140 |
ETHNIC | 0.214 | 0.202 | 0.405 | 0.090 |
HOUSING | 0.595 | 0.609 | 0.465 | 0.650 |
LIV | 0.073 | 0.073 | 0.081 | 0.066 |
CHILD | 0.215 | 0.096 | 0.377 | 0.111 |
人口比例(%) | 49.01 | 16.26 | 7.53 | 27.20 |
城市数(个) | 113 | 57 | 31 | 81 |
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