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地理学报    2018, Vol. 73 Issue (12): 2468-2480     DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201812014
  旅游地理 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
2001-2015年中国出境旅游流位序规模演化特征
蒋依依1(),温晓金1(),刘焱序2
1. 中国旅游研究院国际旅游研究所,北京 100005
2. 北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875
Evolutionary characteristics of China's outbound tourism flow in rank-size distribution from 2001 to 2015
JIANG Yiyi1(),WEN Xiaojin1(),LIU Yanxu2
1. Institute of International Tourism Research, China Tourism Academy, Beijing 100005, China
2. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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摘要 

中国出境旅游规模在20世纪90年代中后期以来迅速扩大,并在不同目的地间表现出显著的不均衡分布特征。通过构建2001-2015年中国出境游客与目的地入境游客规模数据库,验证中国出境旅游流服从位序规模理论的假设,并将目的地吸纳中国游客规模与目的地接待游客总量的关系划分为5种耦合类型。结果表明:中国出境旅游流位序规模关系符合幂函数规律,并且向高位序目的地聚集程度不断增强;从2001年到2015年,绝对领先与绝对落后型的目的地占比均超过45%,亚太地区接待中国游客普遍处于领先地位,而欧美和中东地区接待中国游客大多处于落后地位;对于游客总规模较大的目的地,绝对落后型数量大于绝对领先型,而对于游客总规模较小的目的地,绝对领先型数量大于绝对落后型。本研究为分析出境旅游流量流向提供新的分析视角,进而为国家旅游业发展中的市场政策制定与旅游产业国际化布局等决策提供理论参考。

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蒋依依
温晓金
刘焱序
关键词 中国出境旅游目的地入境旅游位序规模耦合类型 
Abstract

The size of China's outbound tourism has expanded rapidly since the mid-1990s, and has presented a remarkably imbalanced distribution between different destinations. This study built a database on China's outbound tourism and destination's inbound tourism between 2001 and 2015, and validated that China's outbound tourists flow is in compliance with the hypothesis of law similar to the rank-size distribution theory. The coupling rank-size relationship between Chinese inbound tourists and the total number of inbound tourists received by the destinations has been divided into 5 types. The results show that the relation of the rank-size distribution of China's outbound tourism is consistent with the law of power function, and gathering to the high-ordered destinations. From 2001 to 2015, both the absolute leading and absolute lagging types exceed 45% of the total number of destinations. The Asian-Pacific countries receiving Chinese tourists are generally in the leading type, with destinations in Europe, America and Middle East lagging behind. Destinations with more tourists are more likely in the absolute lagging type than in the leading type, while those with fewer tourists are more likely in the absolute leading type than in the lagging. This study provides a new perspective for the analysis of outbound travel flow, and could serve as theoretical references for decision-making on market policy formulation and internationalized tourism industry layout.

Key wordsChina's outbound tourism    destination's inbound tourism    rank-size    coupled types
收稿日期: 2017-12-08      出版日期: 2018-12-14
基金资助:国家“万人计划”青年拔尖人才支持计划;国家社科基金重点项目(17AJY22)
引用本文:   
蒋依依, 温晓金, 刘焱序 . 2001-2015年中国出境旅游流位序规模演化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(12): 2468-2480.
JIANG Yiyi, WEN Xiaojin, LIU Yanxu . Evolutionary characteristics of China's outbound tourism flow in rank-size distribution from 2001 to 2015[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(12): 2468-2480.
链接本文:  
http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/10.11821/dlxb201812014      或      http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/Y2018/V73/I12/2468
Fig. 1  2001-2015年全球目的地接待中国游客与接待总入境游客位序规模分布的双对数拟合
年份 绝对
领先
相对
领先
绝对
落后
相对
落后
持平
均衡
年份 绝对
领先
相对
领先
绝对
落后
相对
落后
持平
均衡
2001 46.5 4 45.5 2 2 2009 47.5 1 46.5 1.5 3.5
2002 43.5 4.5 47 3.5 1.5 2010 48.5 1 46.5 0 4
2003 44.5 3 46.5 2.5 3.5 2011 47 0.5 50 0.5 2
2004 46 3.5 45.5 3 2 2012 48.5 0 51 0 0.5
2005 44.5 2.5 48 2 3 2013 52.5 0 45.5 0 2
2006 45.5 2 48.5 0.5 3.5 2014 48 0.5 50.5 0.5 0.5
2007 46 2 46.5 2.5 3 2015 49 0 50 0 1
2008 45.5 1.5 47.5 1.5 4
Tab. 1  不同耦合类型的目的地数量占比(%)
Fig. 2  前十位目的地的位序规模耦合占比比较
Fig. 3  2001-2015年各大洲目的地接待的中国游客与总入境游客的耦合类型
绝对
领先I
绝对
落后I
其他I 绝对
领先II
绝对
落后II
其他II 绝对
领先III
绝对
落后III
其他III 绝对
领先IV
绝对
落后IV
其他
IV
2001 18 22 0 29 24 0 31 32 7 15 13 9
2002 13 16 1 20 23 1 33 34 4 21 21 13
2003 21 23 2 34 34 2 24 29 4 10 7 10
2004 21 26 0 32 32 1 28 28 7 11 5 9
2005 17 24 0 24 27 3 32 33 4 16 12 8
2006 15 19 2 23 23 1 33 35 6 20 20 3
2007 16 19 2 22 24 2 35 40 6 19 10 5
2008 23 22 3 30 34 1 23 26 6 15 13 4
2009 22 25 2 35 33 0 24 24 7 14 11 3
2010 18 22 2 27 25 0 36 31 4 16 15 4
2011 22 27 3 32 38 1 23 24 2 17 11 0
2012 23 25 0 34 39 0 21 26 1 19 12 0
2013 18 17 0 26 20 3 36 34 1 25 20 0
2014 23 24 1 29 37 0 26 28 2 18 12 0
2015 22 24 0 34 39 0 24 26 2 18 11 0
Tab. 2  2001-2015年各规模等级耦合类型
Fig. 4  目的地接待中国游客及其入境游客位序规模耦合规律空间演化
Fig. 5  2015年全球目的地接待中国(a)游客数量与(b)消费水平位序规模分布的双对数拟合
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