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地理学报    2018, Vol. 73 Issue (12): 2364-2377     DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201812007
  城市与区域发展 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
中国县域农业劳动力变化与农业经济发展的时空耦合及其对乡村振兴的启示
马历1,2(),龙花楼1(),张英男1,2,屠爽爽1,3,戈大专4
1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3. 广西师范学院北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室,南宁 530001
4. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京 210023
Spatio-temporal coupling relationship between agricultural labor changes and agricultural economic development at county level in China and its implications for rural revitalization
MA Li1,2(),LONG Hualou1(),ZHANG Yingnan1,2,TU Shuangshuang1,3,GE Dazhuan4
1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Key Laboratory of Environment Change and Resources Use in Beibu Gulf, Guangxi Teachers Education University, the Ministry of Education, Nanning 530001, China
4. College of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
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摘要 

基于中国县域1991年、2000年、2010年3期截面数据,利用定量和GIS空间分析法,研究了在快速城镇化背景下,农业劳动力变化与农业经济发展的耦合特征和时空格局。结果表明:① 1991-2010年中国县域农业劳动力总体呈减少趋势且减少幅度逐渐增加,1991-2000年、2000-2010年分别减少4.91%和15.50%;从空间分布上看,中国农业劳动力数量呈“东减西增”的空间演变特征。② 1991-2010中国县域农业经济呈持续增长态势,总量增长140.13%,但区域差异明显;农业产值占区域GDP的比重逐渐减小,呈现出东低西高的分布特征。③ 产劳弹性系数的耦合类型主要以农业经济、农业劳动力“同增”的增长型和农业经济增长、农业劳动力减少的集约型为主,分别分布在中国的西北和东南部地区;耦合类型为“滞后型”“衰落型”和“衰退型”的区域与中国贫困发生率高的地域较为吻合,1991-2010年各耦合类型整体呈良性发展态势。最后根据产劳弹性系数的耦合类型和空间分布特征,提出促进一二三产融合发展和乡村经济振兴的政策建议。

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马历
龙花楼
张英男
屠爽爽
戈大专
关键词 农业劳动力变化农业经济发展产劳弹性系数时空耦合乡村振兴中国 
Abstract

Based on the 1991, 2000 and 2010 panel data at county level in China, this paper analyzes the coupling characteristics and spatio-temporal pattern of agricultural economic development and agricultural labor changes under rapid urbanization by using the quantitative and GIS spatial analysis methods. The results showed that: (1) During 1991-2010, China's agricultural labor at county level showed a decreasing trend, down 4.91% and 15.50%, respectively, from 1991 to 2000 and 2000 to 2010; from the perspective of spatial distribution, the quantity of agricultural labor in China is characterized by the spatial evolution of "decreasing eastward and increasing westward". (2) During 1991-2010, China's agricultural economy at county level showed a sustained growth trend, with a total increase of 140.13%, but the regional differences were obvious. The proportion of agricultural output in the regional GDP gradually decreased and showed the characteristics of decreasing in the eastern region and increasing in the western region. (3) The coupling types of economic-labor elasticity coefficient are mainly the increasing type and intensive type, representing the growth of agricultural economy and labor, respectively; the growth of agricultural economy and the reduction of agricultural labor were observed in the northwest and southeast of China, respectively. The coupling types of "retarded", "fading" and "declining" regions are more in line with the high incidence of poverty in China; from 1991 to 2010, the coupling types presented a positive trend. Finally, based on the coupling types and spatial distribution of economic-labor elasticity coefficient, some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the integration of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries and the revitalization of rural economy.

Key wordsagricultural labor change    agricultural economic development    economic-labor elasticity coefficient    spatio-temporal coupling    rural revitalization    China
收稿日期: 2017-11-24      出版日期: 2018-12-14
基金资助:国家自然科学基金重点项目(41731286);中国博士后科学基金项目(2018M630197)
引用本文:   
马历, 龙花楼, 张英男等 . 中国县域农业劳动力变化与农业经济发展的时空耦合及其对乡村振兴的启示[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(12): 2364-2377.
MA Li, LONG Hualou, ZHANG Yingnan et al . Spatio-temporal coupling relationship between agricultural labor changes and agricultural economic development at county level in China and its implications for rural revitalization[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(12): 2364-2377.
链接本文:  
http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/10.11821/dlxb201812007      或      http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/Y2018/V73/I12/2364
Fig. 1  农业劳动力变化与农业经济发展的作用机理
类型 ECRmn LCRmn ELECmn 乡村产劳弹性特征
增长型 ECRmn > 0 LCRmn > 0 ELECmn > 1 农业经济发展增速快于劳动力
粗放型 ECRmn > 0 LCRmn > 0 0< ELECmn < 1 农业经济发展增速慢于劳动力
集约型 ECRmn > 0 LCRmn < 0 ELECmn < 0 农业经济发展增加,劳动力减少
滞后型 ECRmn < 0 LCRmn > 0 ELECmn < 0 农业经济发展减少,劳动力增加
衰落型 ECRmn < 0 LCRmn < 0 ELECmn > 1 农业经济发展减速快于劳动力
衰退型 ECRmn < 0 LCRmn < 0 0 < ELECmn < 1 农业经济发展减速慢于劳动力
Tab. 1  乡村产劳弹性系数分类及特征
Fig. 2  1991-2010年中国县域农业劳动力变化的时空格局
Fig. 3  1991-2010年中国县域农业经济发展变化的时空格局
ECR 耦合特征 LCR ELEC 1991-2000年 2000-2010年 1991-2010年
ECR > 0 增长型 LCR > 0 ELEC > 1 701(34.63%) 607(29.99%) 669(33.05%)
粗放型 LCR > 0 0 < ELEC < 1 160(7.91%) 83(4.1%) 34(1.68%)
集约型 LCR < 0 ELEC < 0 980(48.42%) 1257(62.1%) 1292(63.83%)
ECR < 0 滞后型 LCR > 0 ELEC < 0 99(4.89%) 18(0.89%) 9(0.44%)
衰落型 LCR < 0 ELEC > 1 23(1.14%) 22(1.09%) 8(0.4%)
衰退型 LCR < 0 0 < ELEC < 1 61(3.01%) 37(1.83%) 12(0.59%)
Tab. 2  1991-2010年中国县域产劳弹性系数变化情况
Fig. 4  1991-2000年中国县域产劳弹性类型的时空格局
Fig. 5  2000-2010年中国县域产劳弹性类型的时空格局
Fig. 6  1991-2010年中国县域产劳弹性类型的时空格局
2000-2010年(T2) P1 减少量
增长型 粗放型 集约型 滞后型 衰落型 衰退型
1991-2000年(T1)
增长型 13.59 0.64 19.12 0.25 0.40 0.64 34.63 21.05
粗放型 1.88 0.20 5.58 0.05 0.10 0.10 7.91 7.71
集约型 12.15 3.01 31.23 0.44 0.54 1.04 48.42 17.19
滞后型 1.63 0.10 2.96 0.1 0.00 0.05 4.89 4.74
衰落型 0.15 0.05 0.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 1.14
衰退型 0.59 0.10 2.27 0.00 0.05 0.00 3.01 3.01
P2 29.99 4.10 62.10 0.89 1.09 1.83 100
新增量 16.40 3.90 30.88 0.74 1.09 1.83
Tab. 3  1991-2010年中国县域产劳弹性类型转移矩阵(%)
发展类型区 耦合类型 地域分布 基本特征 振兴路径
经济增长区 增长型 主要分布在四川西部、青藏区、甘新区、内蒙古自治区的大部和东北区 自然及地理区位条件相对落后;
产业调整无实质性进展;
有明显的资源依赖性。
加快产业结构转型;
适度引导土地规模经营;
积极培育新型经营主体;
加强农村专业人才队伍建设。
粗放型 集中分布在四川西部、青藏、新疆和黑龙江的部分县域 自然及地理区位条件相对落后;
贫困程度深;
产业发展定位不明确。
加强政策引导和扶持;
明确功能定位突出比较优势;
积极培育农村新业态,支持和鼓励农民就业创业。
集约型 主要分布在黄淮海平原、长三角、珠三角、长江中下游、川渝和黄土高原部分区域 经济发展迅速,城镇化和农业现代化水平高;
经济增长的核心区和人口高密度区。
提升农业发展质量;
开展特色小镇建设;
促进农村“三产”融合发展;
加强基层治理和制度创新。
经济下降区 滞后型 集中分布在西藏自治区的边缘地带 自然和地理区位条件恶劣、
土壤贫瘠不利于农业生产;
贫困程度深;
思想观念落后、劳动力素质低和劳动技能差。
增强帮扶力度;
积极培育新型经营主体;
巩固完善农村基本经营制度;
重视乡村教育,吸引人才返乡。
衰落型
衰退型
Tab. 4  产劳弹性系数的耦合特征及乡村振兴路径
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