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地理学报    2018, Vol. 73 Issue (12): 2329-2344     DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201812005
  城市与区域发展 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
中国县域土地城镇化的区域差异及其影响因素
高金龙1,2(),包菁薇3,刘彦随1(),陈江龙2
1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
2. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室,南京 210008
3. 河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心,开封 475001
Regional disparity and the influencing factors of land urbanization in China at the county level, 2000-2015
GAO Jinlong1,2(),BAO Jingwei3,LIU Yansui1(),CHEN Jianglong2
1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China
3. Center for Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, Henan, China
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摘要 

中国经历了史无前例的快速城镇化进程,与之相伴随的是更加迅猛的土地城镇化过程。基于2000年和2015年中国土地利用现状遥感监测数据,综合运用空间分析、多元回归和地理加权回归的方法,深入分析了中国县域土地城镇化的区域特征及其影响因素。结果表明:① 中国县域土地城镇化率年均增长2.77%,其中近40%的区县城镇化率年均增长大于3%;在空间上呈现出不同于人口城镇化的扩散趋势。② 中国县域土地城镇化的南北分异规律较东西分异更为明显。土地城镇化的高值区域始终集中在胡焕庸线的东南半壁,而围绕主要的城市群地区则形成“组团式”增长的热点区,地区间差异趋于收敛。③ 人口集聚、经济发展、产业结构、城市特性与地理区位等要素对县域土地城镇化空间分异格局的影响较为显著、稳定,各要素对土地城镇化的影响均具有明显的时空依赖特征。分析揭示县域土地城镇化的时空特征及其动力机制,对于科学认识新型城镇化和实施城乡融合、乡村振兴战略,具有重要的理论价值与现实意义。

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高金龙
包菁薇
刘彦随
陈江龙
关键词 土地城镇化新型城镇化人地协调乡村振兴中国 
Abstract

In the unprecedented urbanization process in China, urbanized land has expanded quickly at the same pace or even faster than the growth of the urban population. Employing both the ordinary least square and geographical weighted regression, we analyzed the spatial patterns and factors influencing land urbanization at the county level in 2000 and 2015. This analysis was assisted by land-use data for China acquired from the resource and environment data cloud platform. The research reveals the following points: (1) The annual growth rate of land urbanization experienced 2.77 percentages on average from 2000 to 2015. About 40% of the counties witnessed an annual increase of 3% or above. Land urbanization was manifested in a pattern of diffusion, which differed from the continued spatial polarization of demographic urbanization in China. (2) Geographically, the north-south differentiation of land urbanization was clearer than the east-west differentiation. And the high-value regions tended to be located to the southeast of "Hu Line". Counties surrounding those metropolitan areas were detected as hotspots of land urbanization. In general, there was a convergent trend of land urbanization among regions in China. (3) The factors of population growth, economic development, industrial structure, city/county features, and geographical location have played significant roles in the spatial disparities of land urbanization at the county level. Besides, the spatio-temporal dependence of their influences were also explored. This study on land urbanization and its influencing factors at the county level advances our theoretical and practical understandings of the new-type urbanization, urban and rural integration, and rural revitalization strategies in contemporary China.

Key wordsland urbanization    new-type urbanization    coordination between human and land    rural revitalization    China
收稿日期: 2018-05-17      出版日期: 2018-12-14
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41701193, 41571169, 41601172);“全球乡村计划—中国乡村振兴”项目;国土资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室开放基金项目(2017CZEPK04)
引用本文:   
高金龙, 包菁薇, 刘彦随等 . 中国县域土地城镇化的区域差异及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(12): 2329-2344.
GAO Jinlong, BAO Jingwei, LIU Yansui et al . Regional disparity and the influencing factors of land urbanization in China at the county level, 2000-2015[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(12): 2329-2344.
链接本文:  
http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/10.11821/dlxb201812005      或      http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/Y2018/V73/I12/2329
Fig. 1  中国土地城镇化的影响分析框架
类型 自变量 计算方法
人口规模 人口城镇化率(DUrban) 城镇人口/年末常住人口
经济水平 人均地区生产总值(PGDP) 地区生产总值/年末常住人口
固定资产投资(FInvest) 固定资产投资总额/地区生产总值
财政收入(Finance) 公共财政收入/地区生产总值
产业结构 工业化水平(Indust) 二三产业增加值之和/地区生产总值
工业集约化(ADSIndust) 规模以上工业总产值/地区生产总值
服务业发展(Service) 第三产业增加值/二三产业增加值之和
城市特性 行政等级(Admin) 直辖市辖区、副省级城市辖区、省会城市辖区、一般区、县(县级市)取值5~1
人口密度(PDen) 年末常住人口/辖区土地面积
地理区位 地形起伏(Terrain) 参照封志明等测算方法[47]
年降水量(Precipit) 县域全年平均降水量
路网密度(Roads) 公路总里程/辖区土地面积
中部地区(Central) 虚拟变量,中部地区县域取1,其他区域取0
西部地区(West) 虚拟变量,西部地区县域取1,其他区域取0
东北地区(NEast) 虚拟变量,东北地区县域取1,其他区域取0
Tab. 1  县域土地城镇化影响因素的指标选择
Fig. 2  2000年中国县域土地城镇化水平洛伦兹曲线
Fig. 3  2000年中国县域土地城镇化格局
Fig. 4  2015年中国县域土地城镇化水平洛伦兹曲线
Fig. 5  2015年中国县域土地城镇化格局
地区 2000年 2015年 2000-2015 年均增速
东部地区 31.26 43.25 11.99 2.19
中部地区 20.74 34.57 13.83 3.47
西部地区 23.64 42.22 18.58 3.94
东北地区 25.03 30.59 5.56 1.35
Tab. 2  2000-2015年中国县域土地城镇化水平区域差异(%)
Fig. 6  2000-2015中国县域土地城镇化变化空间格局
Fig. 7  2000-2015年中国土地城镇化水平发展变化类型
自变量 2000年 2015年
系数 标准化系数 Sig. VIF 系数 标准化系数 Sig. VIF
常数项 -0.397 0.069 -0.356 0.047
DUrban 0.052 0.062 0.000 1.376 0.035 0.036 0.117 1.008
PGDP 0.069 0.078 0.004 1.990 0.108 0.121 0.000 1.446
FInvest 0.057 0.062 0.266 1.204 0.098 0.099 0.047 1.219
Finance 0.098 0.099 0.001 1.200 0.063 0.067 0.000 1.112
Indust 0.263 0.147 0.001 1.793 0.144 0.154 0.000 1.859
ADSIndust -0.011 -0.014 0.668 1.306 -0.098 -0.104 0.000 1.720
Service -0.060 -0.045 0.029 1.240 -0.021 -0.021 0.401 1.508
Admin 0.104 0.010 0.000 1.065 0.206 0.062 0.030 1.131
PDen -0.098 -0.122 0.000 1.417 -0.110 -0.120 0.000 1.700
Terrain -0.124 -0.168 0.000 1.488 -0.129 -0.153 0.000 1.410
Precipit 0.190 0.241 0.000 1.116 0.240 0.278 0.000 1.086
Roads 0.002 0.007 0.036 1.005 0.047 0.047 0.052 1.335
Central 0.063 0.028 0.358 1.798 0.038 0.019 0.040 1.926
West 0.044 0.021 0.044 2.590 0.021 0.014 0.002 2.527
NEast -0.369 -0.103 0.000 1.572 -0.339 -0.103 0.000 1.498
R2 0.412 0.542
调整R2 0.405 0.536
F-statistics 14.357 21.951
Sig. 0.000 0.000
Tab. 3  中国县域土地城镇化的OLS模型回归结果
模型参数 2000年 2015年
Bandwidth 409698.3931 632626.0808
AICc 330.593928 10.434024
R2 0.713215 0.783086
调整R2 0.674371 0.764637
Tab. 4  中国县域土地城镇化的GWR模型拟合结果
自变量 最小值 上分位数 中位数 下分位数 最大值 平均值 正值比(%) 负值比(%)
DUrban*** -0.398 0.029 0.137 0.287 1.079 0.190 79.71 20.30
PGDP*** -0.594 -0.018 0.107 0.155 0.635 0.074 72.06 27.94
FInvest*** -0.563 -0.025 0.117 0.230 0.761 0.107 70.94 29.06
Finance*** -4.794 -1.031 -0.047 0.482 3.870 -0.234 48.39 51.61
ADSIndust*** -0.864 -0.283 -0.165 -0.066 0.457 -0.173 10.21 89.79
Service*** -0.918 -0.299 -0.190 -0.068 0.267 -0.187 11.90 88.10
PDen*** -0.895 -0.271 -0.119 0.021 1.039 -0.116 29.96 70.04
Terrain*** -0.240 -0.051 0.020 0.203 0.393 0.071 57.46 42.54
Roads*** -0.129 -0.003 0.001 0.006 0.041 0.002 59.69 40.31
Precipit*** -0.240 -0.051 0.020 0.203 0.393 0.071 56.82 43.18
Tab. 5  2000年GWR模型系数值统计结果
自变量 最小值 上分位数 中位数 下分位数 最大值 平均值 正值比(%) 负值比(%)
DUrban*** -0.264 -0.091 0.010 0.020 0.244 0.012 58.31 41.69
PGDP*** -0.242 0.088 0.155 0.199 0.506 0.138 90.70 9.30
FInvest -0.083 -0.030 -0.001 0.031 0.137 0.001 48.61 51.39
Finance*** -0.056 0.021 0.064 0.114 0.310 0.073 87.00 13.00
ADSIndust*** -0.750 -0.320 -0.247 -0.133 0.474 -0.226 5.67 94.33
Service*** -0.878 -0.234 -0.171 -0.105 0.348 -0.179 6.42 93.58
PDen*** -0.526 -0.290 -0.130 -0.018 0.422 -0.147 21.32 78.68
Terrain*** -0.131 -0.064 -0.020 0.125 0.419 0.037 46.86 53.14
Roads*** -0.370 -0.022 0.019 0.061 1.003 0.026 62.38 37.62
Precipit*** -0.483 -0.008 0.018 0.063 0.187 0.024 65.51 34.49
Tab. 6  2015年GWR模型系数值统计结果
Fig. 8  2000年和2015年中国土地城镇化影响因素回归系数分布
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