地理学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (11): 2210-2222.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201811012

• 生态系统与承载力 • 上一篇    下一篇

“一带一路”沿线地区隐含碳流动研究

姚秋蕙1,2(),韩梦瑶1,2(),刘卫东1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-12-08 出版日期:2018-11-25 发布日期:2018-11-22
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602804);国家自然科学基金项目(41701135);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA20010102)

Tracking embodied carbon flows in the Belt and Road regions

YAO Qiuhui1,2(),HAN Mengyao1,2(),LIU Weidong1,2   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2017-12-08 Online:2018-11-25 Published:2018-11-22
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of China, No.2016 YFA0602804; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41701135; CAS Priority Research Program, No.XDA20010102

摘要:

随着全球各区域的连通性不断增强,碳流动以及碳泄漏在全球碳减排过程中扮演着越来越重要的角色。伴随全球产业跨境转移的过程,发达国家的高碳行业逐渐转移到发展中国家,并从这些国家进口成品用于自身最终消费。基于多区域投入产出分析,本文测算了“一带一路”沿线地区隐含碳流动,分析了生产碳及消费碳强度在全球的空间分布,并以此为基础探讨了“一带一路”沿线地区的生产者及消费者责任。结果显示,“一带一路”沿线地区的生产碳强度大都高于消费碳强度,且两者的差值大多高于“一带一路”区域外发达地区。全球95%以上的隐含碳净流出发生在“一带一路”沿线地区,美国、西欧等发达国家/地区的消费所引发的“一带一路”沿线主要区域直接碳排放占比约为30%。考虑到跨国贸易中的隐含碳排放,“一带一路”沿线地区整体承受了较大的碳排放压力。从消费者责任着手衡量各国家/地区在全球气候变化中的碳排放责任,并以包容性全球化为基础推进“一带一路”气候治理体系构建,可为长期难以达成协议的全球气候治理问题提供有效思路。

关键词: 多区域, 投入产出分析, 隐含碳流动, 消费碳, 一带一路, 气候治理

Abstract:

Due to the high levels of connectivity among countries, carbon flows and leakage play increasingly significant roles in global carbon reduction. In concert with global industrial shifts, high-carbon activities in developed countries have gradually transitioned to developing ones, alongside high imports from the latter for the other countries' final consumption. This work aims to illustrate the transfer flows of embodied carbon emissions among countries and regions whilst quantifying the spatial distribution of production- and consumption-based intensities and the related responsibilities of the Belt and Road regions based on multi-regional input-output modeling. The results of this work reveal that production-based carbon intensities of Belt and Road regions are significantly higher than those of their consumption-based ones, and that differences between these two intensities are much larger than in developed countries. Up to 95% of the net embodied carbon exports are derived from the Belt and Road regions, and about 30% of the consumption-based emissions are from developed countries including the United States and Europe outside the Belt and Road area. In consideration of the cross-border international trade, the Belt and Road regions bear high-level pressure of consumption-based carbon emissions. To provide effective approaches for the mitigation of global climate change, it is necessary to evaluate the environmental responsibilities of the Belt and Road regions from the perspective of consumption and build an inclusive global climate governance system towards regional cooperation and development.

Key words: multi-region, input-output analysis, embodied carbon flows, consumption-based carbon, the Belt and Road Initiative, climate governance