The global warming hiatus during 1998-2012 has aroused a great public interest in past several years. Based on the air temperature at 622 meteorological stations in China, the response of temperature to global warming hiatus was analyzed on national and regional scales. The main results were as follows: (1) The trend magnitude of air temperature in China was -0.221 ℃/10 a during 1998-2012, which was lower than the long-term trend during 1960-1998 by 0.427 ℃/10 a. There was a warming hiatus in China that was more obvious than the global mean. Winter played a dominant role (contribution rate was 74.13%) in the nationwide warming hiatus, and the contribution of summer was the least among the four seasons. (2) The warming hiatus was spatial incoherent in different climate backgrounds in China. Among the three natural zones in China (the monsoon region of eastern China, the arid region of northwestern China and the high frigid region of Tibetan Plateau), there was a significant cooling in the eastern and northwestern China, especially the eastern China with a contribution rate of 53.79%. In the eastern China, the trend magnitudes were 0.896 ℃/10 a in winter and 0.134 ℃/10 a in summer, respectively. In the Tibetan Plateau, the air temperature has increased by 0.204 ℃/10 a without significant warming hiatus. (3) The warming hiatus in China may be associated with the negative phase of PDO as well as the reduction of sunspot numbers and total solar radiation. (4) Although warming hiatus occurred in China during 1998-2012, the air temperature has rapidly increased after 2012 and is likely to be continuously warming in the next few years.
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WANG Shengjie et al
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IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution to Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. , USA: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
JevrejevaS, Moore JC, GrinstedA.How will sea level respond to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100? , 2010, 37: L07703. doi: 10.1029/2010GL042947.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL042947/pdf
Using an inverse statistical model we examine potential response in sea level to the changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings by 2100. With six IPCC radiative forcing scenarios we estimate sea level rise of 0.6-1.6 m, with confidence limits of 0.59 m and 1.8 m. Projected impacts of solar and volcanic radiative forcings account only for, at maximum, 5% of total sea level rise, with anthropogenic greenhouse gasses being the dominant forcing. As alternatives to the IPCC projections, even the most intense century of volcanic forcing from the past 1000 years would result in 10-15 cm potential reduction of sea level rise. Stratospheric injections of SOequivalent to a Pinatubo eruption every 4 years would effectively just delay sea level rise by 12-20 years. A 21st century with the lowest level of solar irradiance over the last 9300 years results in negligible difference to sea level rise.
ZhaoL, DingR, Moore JC.The High Mountain Asia glacier contribution to sea-level rise from 2000 to 2050. , 2016, 57(71): 223-231.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260305500000239/type/journal_article
We estimate all the individual glacier area and volume changes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) by 2050 based on Randolph Glacier Inventory (RGI) version 4.0, using different methods of assessing sensitivity to summer temperatures driven by a regional climate model and the IPCC A1B radiative forcing scenario. A large range of sea-level rise variation comes from varying equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) sensitivity to summer temperatures. This sensitivity and also the glacier mass-balance gradients with elevation have the largest coefficients of variability (amounting to ~50%) among factors examined. Prescribing ELA sensitivities from energy-balance models produces the highest sea-level rise (9.2 mm, or 0.76% of glacier volume a0900091), while the ELA sensitivities estimated from summer temperatures at Chinese meteorological stations and also from 100°x100° gridded temperatures in the Berkeley Earth database produce 3.6 and 3.8 mm, respectively. Different choices of the initial ELA or summer precipitation lead to 15% uncertainties in modelled glacier volume loss. RGI version 4.0 produces 20% lower sea-level rise than version 2.0. More surface mass-balance observations, meteorological data from the glaciated areas, and detailed satellite altimetry data can provide better estimates of sea-level rise in the future.
Carter B. There is a problem with global warming…it stopped in 1998. ,2016(9).http://classicalliberal.homestead.com/There_IS_a_problem_with_global_warming_April_2006.doc
For many years now, human-caused climate change has been viewed as a large and urgent problem. In truth, however, the biggest part of the problem is neither environmental nor scientific, but a self-created political fiasco. Consider the simple fact, drawn from the
KnightJ, Kenneby JJ, FollandC, et al.Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions? , 2009, 90(8): 22-23.
Kerr RA.What happened to global warming? Scientists say just wait a bit. , 2009, 326(5949): 28-29.http://europepmc.org/abstract/med/19797631
Roberts CD, Palmer MD, McNeall D, et al. Quantifying the likelihood of a continued hiatus in global warming. , 2015, 5(4): 337-342.http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2531
The probability of a hiatus in global warming is calculated, with a 10-year event having a probability of [sim]10%, but a 20-year event less than 1%. The current 15-year event is found to have up to 25% chance of continuing for another 5 years.
Yan XH, BoyerT, TrenberthK, et al.The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution? Earth's , 2016, 4(11): 472-482.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000417/pdf
Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report.
MedhaugI, Stolpe MB, Fischer EM, et al.Reconciling controversies about the 'global warming hiatus'. , 2017, 545(7652): 41-47.http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature22315
Between about 1998 and 2012, a time that coincided with political negotiations for preventing climate change, the surface of Earth seemed hardly to warm. This phenomenon, often termed the ‘global warming hiatus’, caused doubt in the public mind about how well anthropogenic climate change and natural variability are understood. Here we show that apparently contradictory conclusions stem from different definitions of ‘hiatus’ and from different datasets. A combination of changes in forcing, uptake of heat by the oceans, natural variability and incomplete observational coverage reconciles models and data. Combined with stronger recent warming trends in newer datasets, we are now more confident than ever that human influence is dominant in long-term warming.
CowtanK, Way RG.Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends. , 2014, 140(683): 1935-1944.http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2014.140.issue-683
Abstract Incomplete global coverage is a potential source of bias in global temperature reconstructions if the unsampled regions are not uniformly distributed over the planet's surface. The widely used Hadley Centre limatic Reseach Unit Version 4 (HadCRUT4) dataset covers on average about 84% of the globe over recent decades, with the unsampled regions being concentrated at the poles and over Africa. Three existing reconstructions with near-global coverage are examined, each suggesting that HadCRUT4 is subject to bias due to its treatment of unobserved regions. Two alternative approaches for reconstructing global temperatures are explored, one based on an optimal interpolation algorithm and the other a hybrid method incorporating additional information from the satellite temperature record. The methods are validated on the basis of their skill at reconstructing omitted sets of observations. Both methods provide results superior to excluding the unsampled regions, with the hybrid method showing particular skill around the regions where no observations are available. Temperature trends are compared for the hybrid global temperature reconstruction and the raw HadCRUT4 data. The widely quoted trend since 1997 in the hybrid global reconstruction is two and a half times greater than the corresponding trend in the coverage-biased HadCRUT4 data. Coverage bias causes a cool bias in recent temperatures relative to the late 1990s, which increases from around 1998 to the present. Trends starting in 1997 or 1998 are particularly biased with respect to the global trend. The issue is exacerbated by the strong El Ni o event of 1997 1998, which also tends to suppress trends starting during those years.
Karl TR, ArguezA, HuangB, et al.Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus. , 2015, 348(6242): 1469-1472.http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aaa5632
Abstract Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
HuangJ, ZhangX, ZhangQ, et al.Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend. , 2017, 7(12): 875-879.http://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0009-5
The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated. Although various physical processeshave been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area. As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATsand a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT datasetthrough employing the `data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions' method. Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 C per decade, instead of 0.05 C per decade from IPCC AR5, for 1998-2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.
Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Fasullo JT, et al.Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. , 2011, 1(7): 360-364.http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1229
There have been decades, such as 2000-2009, when the observed globally averaged surface-temperature time series shows little increase or even a slightly negative trend (a hiatus period). However, the observed energy imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere for this recent decade indicates that a net energy flux into the climate system of about 1Wm(refs , ) should be producing warming somewhere in the system. Here we analyse twenty-first-century climate-model simulations that maintain a consistent radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere of about 1Wmas observed for the past decade. Eight decades with a slightly negative global mean surface-temperature trend show that the ocean above 300m takes up significantly less heat whereas the ocean below 300m takes up significantly more, compared with non-hiatus decades. The model provides a plausible depiction of processes in the climate system causing the hiatus periods, and indicates that a hiatus period is a relatively common climate phenomenon and may be linked to La Ni a-like conditions.
ZhaoSongqiao.A new scheme for comprehensive physical regionalization in China. , 1983, 38(1): 1-10.
[赵松乔. 中国综合自然地理区划的一个新方案. , 1983, 38(1): 1-10.]
Vinnikov KY, Groisman PY, Lugina KM.Empirical data on contemporary global climate changes (temperature and precipitation). , 1990, 3(6): 662-677.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%281990%29003%3C0662%3AEDOCGC%3E2.0.CO%3B2
New data are presented on the changes of mean global surface air temperature and annual precipitation over extratropical continents of the Northern Hemisphere. Global warming occurred during the last century with a mean trend of 0.5°C/100 years. It is shown that for the same period the annual precipitation over the land in the 35°-70°N zone increased by 6%. The observed variations of precipitation coincide with the results of general circulation modeling of doubled COequilibrium climate change by sign but contradict by scale.
JiMingxia.Response and interact between atmospheric circulation and temperature of Eurasian [D]. , 2009.
[季明霞. 欧亚大气环流与地表气温之间的反馈和相互作用[D]. , 2009.]
Trenberth KE, Fasullo JT, BranstatorG, et al.Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming. , 2014, 4(10): 911-916.http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2341
Factors involved in the recent pause in the rise of global mean temperatures are examined seasonally. For 1999 to 2012, the hiatus in surface warming is mainly evident in the central and eastern Pacific. It is manifested as strong anomalous easterly trade winds, distinctive sea-level pressure patterns, and large rainfall anomalies in the Pacific, which resemble the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These features are accompanied by upper tropospheric teleconnection wave patterns that extend throughout the Pacific, to polar regions, and into the Atlantic. The extratropical features are particularly strong during winter. By using an idealized heating to force a comprehensive atmospheric model, the large negative anomalous latent heating associated with the observed deficit in central tropical Pacific rainfall is shown to be mainly responsible for the global quasi-stationary waves in the upper troposphere. The wave patterns in turn created persistent regional climate anomalies, increasing the odds of cold winters in Europe. Hence, tropical Pacific forcing of the atmosphere such as that associated with a negative phase of the PDO produces many of the pronounced atmospheric circulation anomalies observed globally during the hiatus.
Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century(1,2), challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming(3-6), but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Nina-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.
SchneiderN, Cornuelle BD.The forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. , 2005, 18(21): 4355-4373.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3527.1
The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, is a widely used index for decadal variability. It is shown that the PDO can be recovered from a reconstruction of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies based on a first-order autoregressive model and forcing by variability of the Aleutian low, El Ni01±o09“Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and oceanic zonal advection anomalies in the Kuroshio09“Oyashio Extension. The latter results from oceanic Rossby waves that are forced by North Pacific Ekman pumping. The SST response patterns to these processes are not orthogonal, and they determine the spatial characteristics of the PDO. The importance of the different forcing processes is frequency dependent. At interannual time scales, forcing from ENSO and the Aleutian low determines the response in equal parts. At decadal time scales, zonal advection in the Kuroshio09“Oyashio Extension, ENSO, and anomalies of the Aleutian low each account for similar amounts of the PDO variance. These results support the hypothesis that the PDO is not a dynamical mode, but arises from the superposition of sea surface temperature fluctuations with different dynamical origins.
LiuChao.Study on influence of the PDO on sea level rise in the Pacific [D]. , 2016.
[刘超. PDO对海平面变化趋势的影响[D]. , 2016.]
Hoyt DV, Schatten KH.New York: Oxford University Press, 1997.
Lean JL.Cycles and trends in solar irradiance and climate. , 2010, 1(1): 111-122.http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/wcc.18
How - indeed whether - the Sun's variable energy outputs influence Earth's climate has engaged scientific curiosity for more than a century. Early evidence accrued from correlations of assorted solar and climate indices, and from recognition that cycles near 11, 88 and 205 years are common in both the Sun and climate.[ 1 ][ 2 ] But until recently, an influence of solar variability on climate, whether through cycles or trends, was usually dismissed because climate simulations with (primarily) simple energy balance models indicated that responses to the decadal solar cycle would be so small as to be undetectable in observations.[ 3 ] However, in the past decade modeling studies have found both resonant responses and positive feedbacks in the ocean-atmosphere system that may amplify the response to solar irradiance variations.[ 4 ][ 5 ] Today, solar cycles and trends are recognized as important components of natural climate variability on decadal to centennial time scales. Understanding solar-terrestrial linkages is requisite for the comprehensive understanding of Earth's evolving environment. The attribution of present-day climate change, interpretation of changes prior to the industrial epoch, and forecast of future decadal climate change necessitate quantitative understanding of how, when, where, and why natural variability, including by the Sun, may exceed, obscure or mitigate anthropogenic changes. Copyright 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website .
CoddingtonO, Lean JL, PilewskieP, et al.A solar irradiance climate data record. , 2016, 97(7): 1265-1282.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00265.1
We present a new climate data record for total solar irradiance and solar spectral irradiance between 1610 and the present day with associated wavelength and time-dependent uncertainties and quarterly updates. The data record, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration090005s (NOAA) Climate Data Record (CDR) program, provides a robust, sustainable, and scientifically defensible record of solar irradiance that is of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity for use in studies of climate variability and climate change on multiple time scales and for user groups spanning climate modeling, remote sensing, and natural resource and renewable energy industries. The data record, jointly developed by the University of Colorado090005s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), is constructed from solar irradiance models that determine the changes with respect to quiet sun conditions when facular brightening and sunspot darkening features are present on the solar disk where the magnitude of the changes in irradiance are determined from the linear regression of a proxy magnesium (Mg) II index and sunspot area indices against the approximately decade-long solar irradiance measurements of the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE). To promote long-term data usage and sharing for a broad range of users, the source code, the dataset itself, and supporting documentation are archived at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). In the future, the dataset will also be available through the LASP Interactive Solar Irradiance Data Center (LISIRD) for user-specified time periods and spectral ranges of interest.
Friis-ChristensenE, LassenK.Length of the solar cycle: An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. , 1991, 254(5032): 698-700.http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.254.5032.698
It has recently been suggested that the solar irradiance has varied in phase with the 80- to 90-year period represented by the envelope of the 11-year sunspot cycle and that this variation is causing a significant part of the changes in the global temperature. This interpretation has been criticized for statistical reasons and because there are no observations that indicate significant changes in the solar irradiance. A set of data that supports the suggestion of a direct influence of solar activity on global climate is the variation of the solar cycle length. This record closely matches the long-term variations of the Northern Hemisphere land air temperature during the past 130 years.
HassaniH, HuangX, GuptaR, et al.Does sunspot numbers cause global temperatures? A reconsideration using non-parametric causality tests. , 2016, 460: 54-65.https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378437116301352
RathodM, GuptaM, Shrivastava AK.Long-term variation of solar flare indices in relation to sunspot numbers from Solar Cycle 20 to 24. , 2017, 7(9): 339-347.http://physics-journal.org/detail-physics-journal-d.php.php?abid=288
CohenJ, BarlowM, SaitoK.Decadal fluctuations in planetary wave forcing modulate global warming in late boreal winter. , 2009, 22(16): 4418-4426.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2931.1
The warming trend in global surface temperatures over the last 40 yr is clear and consistent with anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Over the last 2 decades, this trend appears to have accelerated. In contrast to this general behavior, however, here it is shown that trends during the boreal cold months in the recent period have developed a marked asymmetry between early winter and lat...
SeagerR, KushnirY, NakamuraJ, et al.Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10. , 2010, 37: L14703. doi: 10.1029/2010GL043830.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL043830/full
Winter 2009/10 had anomalously large snowfall in the central parts of the United States and in northwestern Europe. Connections between seasonal snow anomalies and the large scale atmospheric circulation are explored. An El Ni o state is associated with positive snowfall anomalies in the southern and central United States and along the eastern seaboard and negative anomalies to the north. A negative NAO causes positive snow anomalies across eastern North America and in northern Europe. It is argued that increased snowfall in the southern U.S. is contributed to by a southward displaced storm track but further north, in the eastern U.S. and northern Europe, positive snow anomalies arise from the cold temperature anomalies of a negative NAO. These relations are used with observed values of NINO3 and the NAO to conclude that the negative NAO and El Ni o event were responsible for the northern hemisphere snow anomalies of winter 2009/10.
CattiauxJ, VautardR, CassouC, et al.Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate. , 2010, 37: L20704. doi: 10.1029/2010GL044613.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL044613/full
The winter of 2009/2010 was characterized by record persistence of the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which caused several severe cold spells over Northern and Western Europe. This somehow unusual winter with respect to the most recent ones arose concurrently with public debate on climate change, during and after the Copenhagen climate negotiations. We show however that the cold European temperature anomaly of winter 2010 was (i) not extreme relative to winters of the past six decades, and (ii) warmer than expected from its record-breaking seasonal circulation indices such as NAO or blocking frequency. Daily flow-analogues of winter 2010, taken in past winters, were associated with much colder temperatures. The winter 2010 thus provides a consistent picture of a regional cold event mitigated by long-term climate warming. Citation: Cattiaux, J., R. Vautard, C. Cassou, P. Yiou, V. Masson-Delmotte, and F. Codron (2010), Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L20704, doi:10.1029/2010GL044613.
Hong CC, LiT.The extreme cold anomaly over Southeast Asia in February 2008: Roles of ISO and ENSO. , 2009, 22(13): 3786-3801.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2009JCLI2864.1
A record-breaking, long-persisting extreme cold anomaly (ECA) over Southeast Asia, accompanied by an intraseasonal convection over the Maritime Continent, is identified during the La Ni09a mature phase in February 2008. The cause of the ECA, in particular the role of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and El Ni09o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the ECA, is investigated by diagnosing observations...
WenM, YangS, KumarA, et al.An analysis of the large-scale climate anomalies associated with the snowstorms affecting China in January 2008. , 2009, 137(3): 1111-1131.http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008MWR2638.1
DaiA, Fyfe JC, Xie SP, et al.Decadal modulation of global surface temperature by internal climate variability. , 2015, 5(6): 555-559.http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2605
Despite a steady increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), global-mean surface temperature (T) has shown nodiscernible warming since about 2000, in sharp contrast to model simulations, which on average project strongwarming1–3.The recent slowdown in observed surface warming has been attributed to decadal cooling in the tropical Pacific1,4,5, intensifying trade winds5, changes in El Ni09o activity6,7, increasing volcanic activity8–10 and decreasing solar irradiance7.Earlier periods of arrested warming have been observed but received much less attention than the recent period, and their causes are poorly understood. Here we analyse observed and model-simulated global T fields to quantify the contributions of internal climate variability (ICV) to decadal changes in global-mean T since 1920. We show that the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) has been associated with large T anomalies over both ocean and land. Combined with another leading mode of ICV, the IPO explains most of the dierence between observed and model-simulated rates of decadal change in global-mean T since 1920, and particularlyover the so-called ‘hiatus’ period since about2000. We conclude that ICV, mainly through the IPO, was largely responsible for the recent slowdown, as well as for earlier slowdowns and accelerations in global-mean T since 1920, with preferred spatial patterns dierent from those associated with GHG-inducedwarming or aerosol-induced cooling. Recent history suggests that the IPO could reverse course and lead to accelerated global warming in the coming decades.
LiJ, SunC, Jin FF.NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability. , 2013, 40(20): 5497-5502.http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2013GL057877
The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971-2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012-2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.
DouvilleH, VoldoireA, GeoffroyO.The recent global warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability? , 2015, 42(3): 880-888.http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2014GL062775
Abstract The observed global mean surface air temperature (GMST) has not risen over the last 1565years, spurring outbreaks of skepticism regarding the nature of global warming and challenging the upper range transient response of the current-generation global climate models. Recent numerical studies have, however, tempered the relevance of the observed pause in global warming by highlighting the key role of tropical Pacific internal variability. Here we first show that many climate models overestimate the influence of the El Ni09o–Southern Oscillation on GMST, thereby shedding doubt on their ability to capture the tropical Pacific contribution to the hiatus. Moreover, we highlight that model results can be quite sensitive to the experimental design. We argue that overriding the surface wind stress is more suitable than nudging the sea surface temperature for controlling the tropical Pacific ocean heat uptake and, thereby, the multidecadal variability of GMST. Using the former technique, our model captures several aspects of the recent climate evolution, including the weaker slowdown of global warming over land and the transition toward a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Yet the observed global warming is still overestimated not only over the recent 1998–2012 hiatus period but also over former decades, thereby suggesting that the model might be too sensitive to the prescribed radiative forcings.
Yao SL, HuangG, Wu RG, et al.The global warming hiatus: A natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation. , 2016, 123(1/2): 349-360.http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-014-1358-x
DeserC, GuoR, LehnerF.The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus. , 2017, 44(15): 7945-7954.http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2017GL074273