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地理学报    2018, Vol. 73 Issue (9): 1748-1764     DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201809011
  气候变化与生态环境 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应
杜勤勤(),张明军(),王圣杰,车存伟,邱雪,马转转
西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州 730070
Changes in air temperature of China in response to global warming hiatus
DU Qinqin(),ZHANG Mingjun(),WANG Shengjie,CHE Cunwei,QIU Xue,MA Zhuanzhuan
College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
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摘要 

1998-2012年出现的全球变暖停滞(global warming hiatus)现象,近年来受到各界的广泛关注。基于中国622个气象站的气温数据,研究了全国及三大自然区气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应。结果表明:① 1998-2012年间,中国气温变化率为-0.221 ℃/10 a,较1960-1998年增温率下降0.427 ℃/10 a,存在同全球变暖停滞类似的增温减缓现象,且减缓程度更明显,其中冬季对中国增温减缓的贡献最大,贡献率为74.13%,夏季最小;② 中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应存在显著的区域差异,从不同自然区看,1998-2012年东部季风区和西北干旱区降温显著,其中东部季风区为中国最强降温区,为全国增温减缓贡献了53.79%,并且具有显著的季节依赖性,减缓期冬季气温下降了0.896 ℃/10 a,而夏季上升了0.134 ℃/10 a。青藏高寒区1998-2012年增温率达0.204 ℃/10 a,对全球变暖停滞的响应并不显著;③ 中国增温减缓可能受太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)负相位、太阳黑子数与太阳总辐照减小等因素的影响;④ 1998-2012年中国虽出现增温减缓现象,但2012年之后气温快速升高,且从周期变化看,未来几年可能持续升温。

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杜勤勤
张明军
王圣杰
车存伟
邱雪
马转转
关键词 全球变暖停滞中国三大自然区气温 
Abstract

The global warming hiatus during 1998-2012 has aroused a great public interest in past several years. Based on the air temperature at 622 meteorological stations in China, the response of temperature to global warming hiatus was analyzed on national and regional scales. The main results were as follows: (1) The trend magnitude of air temperature in China was -0.221 ℃/10 a during 1998-2012, which was lower than the long-term trend during 1960-1998 by 0.427 ℃/10 a. There was a warming hiatus in China that was more obvious than the global mean. Winter played a dominant role (contribution rate was 74.13%) in the nationwide warming hiatus, and the contribution of summer was the least among the four seasons. (2) The warming hiatus was spatial incoherent in different climate backgrounds in China. Among the three natural zones in China (the monsoon region of eastern China, the arid region of northwestern China and the high frigid region of Tibetan Plateau), there was a significant cooling in the eastern and northwestern China, especially the eastern China with a contribution rate of 53.79%. In the eastern China, the trend magnitudes were 0.896 ℃/10 a in winter and 0.134 ℃/10 a in summer, respectively. In the Tibetan Plateau, the air temperature has increased by 0.204 ℃/10 a without significant warming hiatus. (3) The warming hiatus in China may be associated with the negative phase of PDO as well as the reduction of sunspot numbers and total solar radiation. (4) Although warming hiatus occurred in China during 1998-2012, the air temperature has rapidly increased after 2012 and is likely to be continuously warming in the next few years.

Key wordsglobal warming hiatus    China    three natural zones    temperature
收稿日期: 2018-02-01      出版日期: 2018-09-19
基金资助:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目(2013CBA01801);西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划项目(NWNU-LKQN-15-8)
引用本文:   
杜勤勤, 张明军, 王圣杰等 . 中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(9): 1748-1764.
DU Qinqin, ZHANG Mingjun, WANG Shengjie et al . Changes in air temperature of China in response to global warming hiatus[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(9): 1748-1764.
链接本文:  
http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/10.11821/dlxb201809011      或      http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/Y2018/V73/I9/1748
Fig. 1  中国气象站点地理位置及分区
气温变化率(℃/10 a)
1951-2012 1998-2012 1998-2014 2000-2014
全球[1] 陆地和海洋 0.117 0.04 0.059 0.116
陆地 0.194 0.039 0.112 0.15
海洋 0.088 0.014 0.038 0.036
中国 陆地 -0.221 -0.094 0.018
Tab. 1  全球[1]和中国不同时段平均气温的线性变化率
Fig. 2  全球、北半球和中国的陆地平均气温距平变化
注:全球和北半球数据来自CRUTEM4[23]、NCEI/NOAA[14]、GISS[24]和Berkeley Earth (http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/global-land),其中未订正的NOAA数据来自于NCEI[14],计算距平的标准期为1961-1990年;阴影部分表示1998-2012年全球变暖停滞期。
Fig. 3  不同时段中国四季平均气温的线性变化率(误差线表示90%的置信区间)
时间段 贡献率(%)
春季 夏季 秋季 冬季
1960-2016年 26.13 18.25 24.5 31.12
1960-2012年 23.93 18.37 24.8 32.9
1960-1998年(加速期) 15.62 8.9 21.46 54.01
1998-2012年(停滞期) 22.87 -22.82 4.73 95.22
1998-2016年 143.5 24.50 55.69 -226.36
2000-2016年 61.39 35.11 73.41 69.81
1998-2012年与1960-1998年(对增温减缓的贡献率) 19.16 -6.59 13.29 74.13
Tab. 2  不同时段中国气温变化的季节贡献率
Fig. 4  1960-2016年中国平均气温的小波分析结果
Fig. 5  1960-2012年中国全年与季节平均气温线性变化率的空间分布
Fig. 6  1998-2012年中国全年与季节平均气温线性变化率的空间分布
Fig. 7  2000-2016年中国全年与季节平均气温线性变化率的空间分布
Fig. 8  不同时段中国与三大自然区平均气温的线性变化率(误差线表示90%的置信区间)
时间段 贡献率(%)
东部季风区 西北干旱区 青藏高寒区
1960-2016年 37.15 35.61 27.24
1960-2012年 36.86 35.75 27.39
1960-1998年(加速期) 37.91 39.58 22.51
1998-2012年(停滞期) 70.89 54.96 25.85
1998-2016年 -7.29 9.84 97.46%
2000-2016年 25.68 25.94 59.25
1998-2012年与1960-1998年(对增温减缓的贡献) 53.79 46.98 -0.77
Tab. 3  不同时段中国气温变化的区域贡献率
时间段 气温变化率(℃/10a)
东部季风区 西北干旱区 青藏高寒区
春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 春季 夏季 秋季 冬季 春季 夏季 秋季 冬季
1960-2016年 0.271 0.153 0.227* 0.316 0.36 0.276 0.334 0.39 0.245 0.272 0.319 0.313
1960-2012年 0.24 0.146 0.217 0.314 0.308* 0.286 0.345 0.388 0.227 0.257 0.302 0.301
1960-1998年 0.145 0.058 0.15 0.461 0.146 0.085 0.269 0.702 0.128 0.148 0.236 0.191
1998-2012年 -0.419 0.134 -0.063 -0.896 -0.061 0.217 -0.059 -1.425 0.213 0.337 -0.046 0.204
1998-2016年 0.04 0.128 0.066 -0.248 0.397 0.054 -0.051 -0.421 0.281 0.324 0.205 0.267
2000-2016年 0.069 0.087 0.277 -0.212 0.325 -0.008 0.129 -0.245 0.596 0.375 0.429 -0.27
Tab. 4  中国三大自然区各季节平均气温的线性变化率
Fig. 9  1960-2016年东部季风区(a1、a2)、西北干旱区(b1、b2)与青藏高寒区(c1、c2)平均气温的小波分析结果
Fig. 10  1900-2016年(a1、a2、a3)与1960-2016年(b1、b2、b3)PDO指数以及中国平均气温距平的变化
Fig. 11  不同时段PDO指数与中国平均气温相关系数的空间分布
Fig. 12  不同时段太阳黑子数、太阳总辐照与中国平均气温距平的变化(a1、a2、b1、b2)以及1998-2012年太阳黑子数、太阳总辐照与中国平均气温距平的相关性(a3、b3)
Fig. 13  1960-2016年太阳黑子数的小波分析结果
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