地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (4): 771-783.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201804013

• 区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于演化弹性理论的中国老工业城市经济转型过程比较

关皓明1,2,张平宇1(),刘文新1,李静1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,长春 130102
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2017-05-27 出版日期:2018-04-20 发布日期:2018-04-10
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41571152, 41771179)

A comparative analysis of the economic transition process of China's old industrial cities based on evolutionary resilience theory

GUAN Haoming1,2,ZHANG Pingyu1(),LIU Wenxin1,LI Jing1   

  1. 1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, CAS, Changchun 130102, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2017-05-27 Online:2018-04-20 Published:2018-04-10
  • Supported by:
    [Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41571152, No.41771179]

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摘要：

运用演化弹性理论（evolutionary resilience）采用经济周期模型法和偏离—份额法,从增长和结构两个方面,比较分析沈阳市、重庆市和武汉市3个典型老工业城市改革开放以来经济发展和转型过程。结果发现：① 重庆市和武汉市经济增长能力水平具有显著地以20世纪90年代中期为分界的阶段性特征;沈阳市经济发展过程呈现出适应循环周期特征,目前处于由维持向释放过渡的阶段。② 20世纪90年代以来,沈阳市3次产业结构转换方向具有较大的波动性,第三产业份额的增加主要是第二产业增长放慢的结果。重庆市和武汉市3次产业结构转换方向具有较强的稳定性。③ 20世纪90年代末以后,沈阳市和武汉市制造业结构演替受老路径增长能力变化影响较大,重庆市制造业结构演替是在新老路径都保持较高增长能力背景下稳步推进的。④ 21世纪初以来,沈阳市新路径的演化呈现出低端化特征,而重庆市和武汉市新路径的演化呈现出高端化特征。本文将弹性理论应用到城市经济转型研究,实证了弹性理论的实践应用价值。

关键词: 演化弹性, 城市经济转型, 老工业城市, 经济周期模型法

Abstract:

The 2008 international financial crisis had a severe impact on urban economic development globally, which stimulated a new wave of discussion on the importance of urban economic transformation. Compared to the past, Chinese cities are facing tougher challenges in sustaining economic development through transformation because of the slowdown in economic growth nationally. Previous studies mainly focused on the strategies and countermeasures of urban economic transformation, and ignored how local economies develop, adapt, and transform over time. Moreover, there have been no comparative studies among cities in eastern, central and western China. Drawing on the theory of evolutionary resilience, this study examined three typical old industrial cities (Shenyang, Chongqing and Wuhan) to compare and contrast their transformations since 1978 using economic cycle modeling and shift-share methods. Results showed that: (1) economic growth in Chongqing and Wuhan has been above national average since the mid-1990s, whereas that of Shenyang has fluctuated periodically and shown a periodic oscillation phenomenon. (2) Since the 1990s, the shift of industrial structure in Shenyang has been volatile, and the increase in the relative share of the tertiary industry has been mainly the result of the deceleration of growth in the secondary industry. Chongqing and Wuhan, on the other hand, are more stable in industrial restructuring. (3) Since the end of the 1990s, the transformation of the manufacturing industry of Shenyang and Wuhan has been affected mainly by the upgrading of an old path, whilst the transformation of manufacturing industry of Chongqing has been the result of both old and new paths, which contributes to the higher growth rate. (4) Since the beginning of the 21st century, the evolution of the new path in Shenyang has featured a low-end trend, in contrast the evolution of the new path in Chongqing and Wuhan has shown a high-end trend. In conclusion, this paper illustrates the value of applying the resilience theory to the study of urban economic transition and enriches the practical value of the theory.

Key words: evolutionary resilience, urban economic transition, old industrial city, economic cycle model method