20世纪90年代以来世界能源安全时空格局演化过程

doi:10.11821/dlxb201712004

地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (12): 2166-2178.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201712004

20世纪90年代以来世界能源安全时空格局演化过程

徐玲琳^1,²(), 王强¹(), 李娜³, 杜雪⁴, 伍世代^1,⁵, 田兰蓝¹, 吴琛璐¹, 丁哲澜⁶

1. 福建师范大学地理科学学院,福州 350007
2. 莱斯布里奇大学地理系,莱斯布里奇 T1K6T5,加拿大
3. 集美大学财经学院,厦门 361021
4. 吉林省城乡规划设计研究院,长春 130012
5. 福建师范大学旅游学院,福州 350108
6. 浙江省发展规划研究院,杭州 310000

收稿日期:2016-10-08 修回日期:2017-08-16 出版日期:2017-12-25 发布日期:2017-12-25
作者简介:
作者简介：徐玲琳(1990-), 女, 福建福州人, 硕士, 主要研究方向为人文地理与区域可持续发展。E-mail: sherlyn_x@hotmail.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41671126, 41201171);福建省科技厅公益类科研院所专项资金(2016R1032-5)

Spatial-temporal evolution of global energy security since 1990s

Linglin XU^1,²(), Qiang WANG¹(), Na LI³, Xue DU⁴, Shidai WU^1,⁵, Lanlan TIAN¹, Chenlu WU¹, Zhelan DING⁶

1. School of Geographical Science, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350007, China
2. Department of Geography, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge T1K6T5, Canada
3. Collage of Finance and Economics, Jimei University, Xiamen 361021, China
4. Jilin Province City & Town Planning & Designing Institute, Changchun 130012, China;
5. College of Tourism, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350108, China
6. Zhejiang Development & Planning Institute, Hangzhou 310000, China;

Received:2016-10-08 Revised:2017-08-16 Published:2017-12-25 Online:2017-12-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41671126, No.41171147;Special Funds for Scientific Research Institutes from Science & Technology Department of Fujian Province, No.2016R1032-5

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于全球158个国家能源供给、传输、使用以及社会发展数据,从能源供给—传输安全、使用安全和社会发展环境三个维度,并借助主、客观赋权方法,构建了能源安全评价模型,对近20年来世界能源安全格局时空演变特征、形成机制及其对中国能源安全表现的政策启示进行了系统分析。研究发现：① 20世纪90年代以来,全球能源安全整体格局呈现出恶化特征,危险型与较危险型国家数量之和呈现增长的态势。② 从世界能源安全空间格局演变过程来看,安全型和较安全型国家空间格局具有较强的稳定性,安全型国家持续集中分布在西欧和北美经济发达地区,而较安全型国家主要分布在安全型国家的外围——欧洲中南部、南美洲和欧亚地区;一般安全型国家主要分布于亚洲、非洲和欧洲南部等地区,是影响世界能源安全格局恶化的关键类型区;较危险型和危险型国家集中分布在亚洲、非洲、欧亚地区和中美洲,整体呈现“东进南拓”的空间演化特征。③ 近20年来,世界能源安全格局的形成机制由“一维主导型驱动”转变为“双维复合型驱动”,影响区域能源安全水平的主要因素日益多元化。④ 在世界能源安全格局中,中国自20世纪90年代以来,其能源安全形势一直处于世界一般水平,且呈现出能源使用安全指数持续降低的态势,能源消费过程中的环境可持续问题日益突出。

关键词: 能源安全, 时空演化, 主客观赋权法, 世界

Abstract:

Based on the energy supply-delivery, consumption and social development data of 158 countries across the world in 1992, 2000 and 2012, this paper develops an energy security evaluation model from three dimensions (energy supply-delivery security, energy consumption, and social-political-economic environment), with the aid of the integrated application of subjective and objective weight allocation technique. Then we use this model to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of global energy security pattern and its formation mechanism. The results are shown as follows: (1) since the 1990s, the spatial patterns of global energy security show a deteriorating trend, the sum of countries in 'dangerous' type and 'relatively dangerous' type presents a growth trend. (2) From the point of spatial evolution, the spatial distribution of countries with 'secure' energy system has strong stability, and these countries are concentrated persistently in Western Europe and North America. The spatial evolution of countries with 'relatively secure' energy system also presents a strong stability, which are mainly distributed in the periphery of the 'secure' ones, namely Central and Southern Europe, South America and Eurasia, while countries with 'general' energy system are mainly distributed in Asia, Africa and Southern Europe, and the spatial-temporal evolution of this type is the main cause for the deterioration of world energy security pattern. Countries with 'dangerous' and 'relatively dangerous' energy system are mainly concentrated in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Asia, rendering spatial extension to the east and south. (3) In the past 20 years, the mechanism for world's energy security pattern formation gradually transforms from the 'unitary dimension-dominated' to the 'binary dimension-dominated', and the main factors influencing the global energy security pattern become more diverse. (4) In the pattern of world's energy security, China's performance on energy security has been the world average since the 1990s, and shows a decreasing trend in energy consumption security index. This finding indicates the sustainable environment problem is increasingly prominent in the process of energy consumption.

Key words: energy security, spatial-temporal evolution, subjective-objective weight allocation method, the globe

徐玲琳, 王强, 李娜, 杜雪, 伍世代, 田兰蓝, 吴琛璐, 丁哲澜. 20世纪90年代以来世界能源安全时空格局演化过程[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(12): 2166-2178.

Linglin XU, Qiang WANG, Na LI, Xue DU, Shidai WU, Lanlan TIAN, Chenlu WU, Zhelan DING. Spatial-temporal evolution of global energy security since 1990s[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(12): 2166-2178.

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目标层	维度层	度量层	指标层	单位	权重
					维度层	度量层	指标层
					维度层	度量层	1992年	2000年	2012年
能源安全综合指数(ESI)	供应—传输安全维度(SESD)	能源供给(Sup)	一次能源生产量与消费量之比	-	0.40	0.30	0.045	0.042	0.068
			能源供应多样性系数	-			0.106	0.114	0.069
			电力多样性系数	-			0.039	0.039	0.054
			原油储备量	亿桶			0.064	0.058	0.064
			天然气储备量	万亿立方英尺			0.045	0.046	0.045
		能源传输(Del)	运输电损率	%		0.10	0.100	0.100	0.100
	使用安全维度(SUSD)	能源服务公平(Ser)	通电率	%	0.40	0.15	0.051	0.049	0.046
			汽油零售价格	美元/升			-0.012	-0.007	-0.032
			人均电力消费量	Kwh/人			0.060	0.058	0.080
			非固态燃料获得率	%			0.051	0.050	0.057
		能源消费环境与经济效应(Env)	化石能源占能源消费总量的比重	%		0.25	0.186	0.149	0.039
			可再生能源发电占全社会用电量的比重	%	0.173			0.171	0.106
			碳排放因子	t/t油当量	0.158			0.111	0.084
			能源效率	千美元/t油当量(已转换为2011年不变价)	-0.266			-0.182	0.021
	社会发展环境维度(SPED)	管理能力(Gov)	政治稳定性	-	0.20	0.20	0.028	0.031	0.029
			管理水平	-			0.035	0.035	0.035
			政府效率	-			0.032	0.030	0.032
			法律角色	-			0.035	0.034	0.035
			腐败控制	-			0.031	0.033	0.035
			人均GDP	美元(已转换为2011年不变价)			0.039	0.037	0.034

20世纪90年代以来世界能源安全时空格局演化过程

Spatial-temporal evolution of global energy security since 1990s

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本文评价

类型区	1992年	2000年	2012年	各阶段变化
类型区	1992年	2000年	2012年	2012-1992年	2000-1992年	2012-2000年
安全型	9	11	17	8	2	6
较安全型	36	34	27	-9	-2	-7
一般安全型	64	48	37	-27	-16	-11
较危险型	36	42	57	21	6	15
危险型	13	23	20	7	10	-3

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