Predictive analysis of passenger and goods flow of Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel
SUN Dongqi1(),LU Dadao1(),WANG Zhenbo1,XU Jianbin2,SHEN Xiaoyan3,WANG Xixi3,WANG Zedong3,SUN Zhongchao3,SUN Fenghua4
1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China 2. School of Geography and Planning, SunYat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, China 3. School of Resources & Environmental Engineering, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China 4. Development Research Center of the Region Encircling the Bohai Sea, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China
On the basis of collecting and sorting related statistical yearbook data and actual survey data of 26 years during 1990-2015, 26 indicators are selected. Guided by the economic geography and communication geography and with the axis of the regional population, economic deveoplment and urbanization trend, the prediction is made for passengers, goods and traffic flow of the Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel (hereafter referred to as "BSCC") for the future. The prediction covers province, nation and world (international trade) involved and gives high, middle and low solution respectively. Seven characteristic years are set due to a long predicting time (2017-2050). With the technology platform of EXCEL 2013, SPSS 22.0, ArcGIS 10.2, MATLABR2011b, etc., the prediction is made by organic combination of multiple methods, such as the time series curve estimation method, building passenger, goods and traffic flow exponential model, building GRNN model, traffic accessibility research method, etc., based on which the following analysis is made: (1) passengers, goods and traffic flow of the BSCC during 2020-2050 and its development trend; (2) passengers, goods and traffic flow structure of the BSCC during 2020-2050 and its development trend; (3) transportation capacity of both passengers and goods of the BSCC during 2020-2050; (4) feasibility and infeasibility of the BSCC construction; (5) future economic benefit of the BSCC construction. The prediction result shows that "catastrophic losses resulting from the extraordinarily large-scale project" will occur if the BSCC is to be built before 2050. In that case, it will also have devastating effects on sea transportation of the BSCC and cause huge losses. There is no need to build BSCC before 2040. Whether we build it in 2050 or not depends on actual social and economic development conditions before and after 2050.
. 渤海海峡跨海通道客货流量预测分析[J]. 地理学报,
2017, 72(8): 1486-1507.
WANG Zhenbo et al
. Predictive analysis of passenger and goods flow of Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,
2017, 72(8): 1486-1507.
This paper presents the background and significance of the research. The data used in this study was mainly collected from 1991-2009 Statistical Yearbooks and the actual survey. The logistics volume index model has been established on the basis of modern regional theory and gravity model theory. By using the model, the land logistics volume of 31 provinces of China in 2008 is calculated. Then the situations of land logistics interflow among 31 provinces and between the three northeastern provinces (logistics regions of Northeast China) and other provinces are analyzed. The potential logistics volume through Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway is also calculated. With the unary linear regression model, land logistics interflow volume among the 31 provinces in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 is predicted. According the logistics interflow volume between the three northeastern provinces and other provinces through Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 is calculated with Arcgis 9.2 software system. On this basis, the paper analyzes the influence of the development of China's regional logistics flow on the construction of Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway. Results show that the construction of Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway can strengthen the logistics exchange volume between the three provinces in Northeast China and other provinces/other logistics regions, which saves capital and time as well as energy resources to a large extent, hence its potential benefits are enormous.
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