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地理学报    2017, Vol. 72 Issue (8): 1373-1391     DOI: 10.11821/dlxb201708004
  产业发展 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
中国在美洲OFDI的基本特征与决定因素
王茂军(),徐永平
首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京 100048
China's OFDI in America: Basic features and determinants
WANG Maojun(),XU Yongping
College of Resource Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
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摘要 

利用2004-2014年中国在OFDI(Outward Foreign Direct Investment, 对外直接投资)的4616家企业数据,分析了其行业结构特征、地理分布特征及其变动,建立了东道国的属性特征和东道国—母国的关系特征相融合的OFDI区位决定模型,定量识别了中国在美洲OFDI的国别决定因素及其行业间差异。研究发现:① 中国在美洲OFDI的国家分布高度集中,行业主体是服务业,国有企业为主导投资者,私营企业投资地位不高。但随时间推移,国家分布趋于离散,制造业地位提升、服务业地位下降,私营企业比重上升。② 国内制造业企业是中国在美洲OFDI的投资主体,且投资行业高度集中于批发零售、商务服务、进出口贸易,这是制造业企业构建国际价值增长链,参与全球化的客观表现,印证了其逐步且连续的国际扩张历程。与制造业公司向服务领域的延伸不同,进出口贸易公司、商务服务公司侧重于原有主营业务优势的拓展。③ 关系变量的引入,有效提升了OFDI国家差别的解释力度。出口显著促进了OFDI,符合互补模型的表现,预示着中国在美洲的OFDI仍处于熟悉海外市场的初始阶段。在这一阶段,良好且紧密的政治社会关系能有效促进OFDI,并且民间力量的推动逊色于国家力量的推动。④ 中国在美洲的OFDI,市场寻求动机最为明显,能源获取动机、技术获取动机、降低生产成本的动机,没有获得模型的充分确认。⑤ 与批发零售业、商务服务业、制造业追求市场规模的共性不同,地质勘查与开发业更侧重于资源寻求,并由此决定了良好政治关系以及国有企业的特殊重要性。

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王茂军
徐永平
关键词 OFDI地理分布行业结构决定因素美洲中国 
Abstract

Based on the OFDI data of 4616 Chinese companies in America during the period of 2004-2014, the paper analyzed the characteristics of industrial structures and geographical distributions, as well as their changing trends. Then it built an OFDI location decision model combined with the attributive characters of host country and relationship characters of host country-home country. Finally it quantitatively recognized the country determinant and the discrepancy among different industries. The research found the following conclusions. Firstly, the geographic distribution of China's OFDI in America was highly concentrated, with service industry as the main industry. State-owned enterprises were the main investors of OFDI and private companies were not so active in terms of investment. As time went on, the OFDI distribution in different countries tended to be discrete, with an uptrend of manufacture industry and a downtrend of service industry. Besides, the proportion of private companies involved was increasing. Secondly, the main body of China's OFDI in America was domestic manufacturers, and their investment was highly concentrated on the industries of wholesale & retail, commercial service, import & export trading, etc. The above facts indicated their participation in building international value-added chain and globalization, and verified their gradual and continuous course of international expansion. Unlike the extension of manufacturers to service industry, import & export trading companies and commercial service companies mainly focused on further development of their original main business advantage. Thirdly, the introduction of relational variables effectively promoted the depth of the explanation on OFDI country difference. Export had prominently promoted OFDI, which accorded with the performance of complementary model, and showed that China's OFDI in America was still in the initial stage of understanding overseas markets. At the initial stage, good and close political and social relationships could effectively promote OFDI, and private companies were playing a less important role than state-owned companies. Fourthly, the market seeking motivation was the most obvious motivation for China's OFDI in America, while energy access motivation, technology acquisition motivation and production cost reducing motivation were not fully confirmed by the model. Fifthly, unlike wholesale and retail industries, commercial service industry and manufacturing industry which commonly pursued market scale, the industry of geological exploration and development industries, focused more on resources searching, which determined good political relationships and the special importances of state-owned enterprises.

Key wordsOFDI    geographical distribution    industry structures    determinants    America    China
收稿日期: 2016-08-30      出版日期: 2017-08-23
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41571154)
引用本文:   
王茂军, 徐永平 . 中国在美洲OFDI的基本特征与决定因素[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(8): 1373-1391.
WANG Maojun, XU Yongping . China's OFDI in America: Basic features and determinants[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(8): 1373-1391.
链接本文:  
http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/10.11821/dlxb201708004      或      http://www.geog.com.cn/CN/Y2017/V72/I8/1373
变量 指标 操作层 数据来源
因变量 投资规模 投资企业数量 中国对东道国投资企业数量(家) 中国对外投资和经济合作网
自变量 关系环境因素 经济关系 中国对东道国出口额(亿美元) 中国海关网
政治关系 中国与东道国友好城市对数(对) 中国友好城市联合会网站
社会关系 华侨人数(万人) 新世界百科全书网站
空间关系 中国与东道国航班连接对数(对) 天巡网
生产函数因素 市场规模 东道国GDP(亿美元) 世界银行
城镇人口规模(万人) 世界银行
自然资源 能源使用(人均石油当量kg) 世界银行
技术资源 R&D支出占GDP比重(%) 世界银行
税负 关税及其他进口税占税收总额的比重(%) 世界银行
经济环境 营商环境便利指数 世界银行
政治风险 国家腐败指数 世界银行
外资政策 外国直接投资净流入额(现价,美元) 世界银行
Tab. 1  模型变量及数据来源
Fig. 1  中国对美洲和美国对中国直接投资的行业结构对比
Fig. 2  中国对美洲前10位国家直接投资的行业结构
行业 2005年之前 2006-2010年 2011-2014年
企业数量(家) 比重(%) 企业数量(家) 比重(%) 企业数量(家) 比重(%)
批发零售业 36 22.5 294 21.7 593 19.0
商务服务业 52 31.9 349 25.7 607 19.5
进出口贸易 32 19.6 273 20.1 513 16.6
制造业 17 10.2 174 12.9 470 15.1
研发和试验发展 6 3.9 60 4.4 155 5.0
地质勘查与开发 2 1.0 45 3.4 122 4.1
房地产业 1 0.5 28 2.0 130 4.2
信息传输、计算机服务和软件业 2 1.5 27 2.1 130 4.2
工程承包 2 1.3 14 1.1 70 2.2
交通运输、仓储和邮政业 4 2.3 28 2.1 69 2.2
文化、体育和娱乐业 1 0.5 16 1.0 70 2.2
农林牧渔业 6 3.4 21 1.5 57 1.8
住宿和餐饮业 2 1.5 17 1.3 56 1.8
专业技术服务业 0 0.0 6 0.4 59 1.9
电力、燃气和水的生产和供应业 0 0.0 4 0.3 4 0.1
合计 162 100.0 1355 100.0 3099 100.0
Tab. 2  中国对美洲直接投资的行业结构演变
Fig. 3  境内投资主体与境外企业的行业链接
企业类型 2005年之前 2006-2010年 2011-2014年 合计
企业数量(家) 比重(%) 企业数量(家) 比重(%) 企业数量(家) 比重(%) 企业数量(家) 比重(%)
国有企业 74 45.6 525 38.8 1101 35.5 1700 36.8
有限责任公司 41 25.4 372 27.4 897 29.0 1310 28.4
股份有限公司 13 8.2 169 12.5 448 14.4 630 13.7
私营企业 9 5.4 99 7.3 279 9.0 387 8.4
其他 25 15.4 190 14.0 374 12.1 589 12.8
合计 162 100 1355 100 3099 100 4616 100
Tab. 3  境内投资企业的所有制结构
行业 国有企业 有限责任公司 股份有限公司 私营企业 其他
企业数量 比重(%) 企业数量 比重(%) 企业数量 比重(%) 企业数量 比重(%) 企业数量 比重(%)
批发零售业 268 26.7 305 30.3 255 25.4 85 8.5 92 9.2
进出口贸易 218 27.8 245 31.2 208 26.5 78 9.9 36 4.6
商务服务业 337 35.5 286 30.1 193 20.3 86 9.1 48 5.1
制造业 206 35.0 168 28.6 134 22.8 48 8.2 32 5.4
研发和试验发展 78 40.0 46 23.6 38 19.5 19 9.7 14 7.2
地质勘查与开发 146 78.5 18 9.7 12 6.5 4 2.2 6 3.2
工程承包 98 83.8 8 6.8 6 5.1 3 2.6 2 1.7
Tab. 4  不同行业的境内企业的所有制结构
Fig. 4  中国对美洲直接投资的空间分布
Fig. 5  2004-2014年中国对美洲投资投资的国别集中指数
模型I 模型II
层一 层二 层一 层二
F 51.161 691.760 16.742 70.164
Sig. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
R2 0.897 0.995 0.757 0.956
调整R2 0.879 0.993 0.712 0.942
n 56 56 52 52
Tab. 5  分层回归分析的模型检验
Fig. 6  不同时段新增投资国家的GDP与人口规模
层级 变量 模型I 模型II
标准化回归系数 T Sig. 标准化回归系数 T Sig.
层一 GDP(亿美元) 1.613 10.609 0.000 2.138 2.451 0.018
城镇人口规模(万人) 0.351 2.486 0.017 -1.405 -1.688 0.099
能源使用(人均石油当量kg) 0.025 0.485 0.630 -0.090 -1.075 0.288
关税及其他进口税占总税收比重 -0.031 -0.569 0.572 -0.144 -1.705 0.095
R&D支出占GDP的比重 0.181 1.762 0.085 -0.089 -0.733 0.467
外国直接投资净流入额(Bop,现价美元) -1.303 -5.589 0.000 0.136 0.483 0.632
国家腐败指数 0.124 1.864 0.069 0.012 0.129 0.898
营商环境便利指数 -0.014 -0.226 0.822 -0.053 -0.551 0.585
层二 GDP(亿美元) -1.021 -4.827 0.000 -0.740 -1.629 0.111
城镇人口规模(万人) -0.145 -2.645 0.011 0.851 1.954 0.058
能源使用(人均石油当量kg) 0.006 0.465 0.644 -0.003 -0.089 0.929
关税及其他进口税占总税收比重 -0.017 -1.1311 0.197 -0.074 -1.878 0.068
R&D支出占GDP的比重 -0.001 -0.036 0.971 -0.090 -1.563 0.126
外国直接投资净流入额(Bop,现价美元) 0.142 1.557 0.127 -0.398 -2.146 0.038
国家腐败指数 -0.035 -1.869 -0.069 0.014 0.296 0.769
营商环境便利指数 0.012 0.719 0.476 0.069 1.364 0.180
中国对东道国的出口额(万美元) 0.910 8.595 0.000 0.799 8.511 0.000
华侨数量(人) 0.274 5.641 0.000 0.019 0.347 0.731
友好城市数量 0.595 3.872 0.000 0.586 4.071 0.000
航班链接对 0.267 1.853 0.071 -0.177 -2.643 0.012
Tab. 6  关系要素和生产函数要素对中国在美洲OFDI的影响
制造业 地质勘查与开发业 进出口贸易 批发零售业 商务服务业
层一 层二 层一 层二 层一 层二 层一 层二 层一 层二
F 50.3508 778.413 2.234 9.227 100.610 2399.225 86.824 2212.648 40.947 269.312
Sig. 0.000 0.000 0.033 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
R2 0.896 0.995 0.285 0720 0.945 0.999 0.937 0.998 0.875 0.987
调整R2 0.878 0.994 0.163 0.642 0.935 0.998 0.926 0.998 0.853 0.983
n 56
Tab. 7  分行业分层回归模型的检验
变量 制造业 地质勘查与开发业 进出口贸易 批发零售业 商务服务业
标准化回归系数 T 标准化回归系数 T 标准化回归系数 T 标准化回归系数 T 标准化回归系数 T
层一 GDP(亿美元) 1.482*** 9.033 0.150 0.349 1.592*** 13.340 1.579*** 12.338 1.357*** 7.540
城镇人口规模(万人) 0.159 0.997 0.627 1.499 0.091 0.784 0.078 0.626 0.093 0.532
能源使用(人均石油当量kg) -0.002 -0.043 0.132 0.957 -0.028 -0.735 -0.022 -0.538 0.024 0.415
关税及其他进口税占税收的比重 0.045 0.823 -0.145 -1.005 0.016 0.407 0.032 0.745 0.018 0.295
R&D支出占GDP的比重 -0.195** -2.541 0.358* 1.780 -0.216*** -3.856 -0.213** -3.560 -0.099 -1.173
外国直接投资净流入额(现价美元) -0.707* -2.441 -0.879 -1.159 -0.723** -3.430 -0.688** -3.046 -0.579* -1.879
国家腐败指数 0.161* 2.537 0.164 0.985 0.134** 2.910 0.129** 2.610 0.186** 2.665
营商环境便利指数 -0.020 -0.332 -0.227 -1.427 -0.020 -0.450 -0.006 -0.133 -0.036 -0.537
层二 GDP(亿美元) -0.552*** -489 -2.488** -2.819 -0.037 -0.580 -0.113 -1.681 -0.904*** -4.729
城镇人口规模(万人) -0.133** -2.768 0.302 0.806 -0.119*** -4.330 -0.146*** -0.512 -0.288** -3.539
能源使用 (人均石油当量kg) 0.010 0.804 0.089 0.914 -0.008 -1.123 -0.002 -0.264 0.021 0.976
关税及其他进口税占税收的比重 -0.015 -1.268 -0.089 0.916 -0.019* -2.627 -0.005 -0.705 -0.010 -0.465
R&D支出占GDP的比重 0.022 0.866 0.485** 2.439 -0.029* -1.920 -0.007 -0.483 0.068 1.572
外国直接投资净流入额(现价美元) 0.038 0.493 -0.958 -1.585 -0.092* -2.081 -0.003 -0.072 0.109 0.835
国家腐败指数 -0.021 -1.140 0.065 0.451 -0.014 -1.388 -0.028** -2.561 -0.016 -0.507
营商环境便利指数 -0.001 -0.073 -0.061 -0.556 -0.20** -2.518 -0.005 -0.705 -0.013 -0.465
中国对东道国的出口额(万美元) 0.971*** 9.163 2.586** 3.123 0.788*** 13.026 0.787*** 12.508 0.927*** 5.168
华侨数量(人) -0.011 -0.144 -2.492*** -4.311 0.271*** 6.418 0.253*** 5.575 -0.125 -0.998
友好城市数量(个) 0.424** 2.758 1.095 0.911 0.245** 2.789 0.235** 2.568 0.903** 3.467
航班链接对(对) 0.245** 3.483 1.805** 3.283 -0.069* -1.707 -0.010 -0.229 0.294** 2.471
Tab. 8  不同行业的分层回归结果
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