政府调控对华北平原农户抗旱行为的影响及效应

doi:10.11821/dlxb201706010

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化背景下干旱等极端天气事件频发给农业生产带来巨大挑战,明确农户是否采取相关应对措施及政府对其采取措施的影响,是进一步完善相关政策和引导农户增强自身响应能力建设的基础和关键。以华北平原为例,基于农户问卷调查数据,运用计量经济学方法,分析气候变化导致干旱频发背景下微观农户的响应行为,评估政府预警和政策支持是否影响农户响应行为以及其他因素如何影响其响应行为。结果表明：① 农户响应干旱态度积极,随干旱程度加深,农户选择采取响应措施的可能性增大。② 政府调控影响农户响应行为,但仅部分调控手段效果显著。政府提供预警信息能增加农户采取响应措施的可能性,然而只有当灾前及灾中、灾后同时预警时效果才显著;电视是目前最主要的预警媒介,但其并不显著改变农户响应行为,通过两种及以上形式的媒介传播预警信息效果最显著。此外,政府（尤其是乡镇及村级机构）的政策支持对农户旱灾响应行为有一定影响,但其效果在灾害年不如正常年明显;资金补贴的调控手段能明显促进农户采取响应措施的积极性,但绝大多数农户未获得任何机构支持。政府调控的结构及力度均有待提升及完善。③ 不同特质农户的响应行为不同。灌区内的农户,家庭耕地细碎度越小的农户,家庭农业成员越多的农户,更倾向于采取响应措施。本研究可为干旱化背景下制定相关调控政策提供科学参考。

关键词: 政府调控, 干旱, 农户, 响应行为, 华北平原

Abstract:

Agricultural production will be confronted with more serious challenges under climate change. Understanding households' adaptive behaviors and the influence of government policies on them is the fundamental step to improve relevant policies for enhancing farmers' ability of adaptation against drought. The econometrics method is used in this study to evaluate the farmers’ adaptive behaviors and their influencing factors, especially the regulation of government policies, like early-warning and policy supports, based on a household and village survey in three provinces of the North China Plain (NCP). The results show that: (1) Most of households are apt to take adaptive measures when facing drought; and the more serious droughts are, the more the adaption measures will be taken. (2) The adaptation behaviors of farmers are affected by the regulation of government policies. The enthusiasm to take adaptations of households can be enhanced obviously by the governments' early-warning information and relevant policy supports, especially when the warning information is released by multiple channels and the subsides or multiple supports are provided by the township government and the village. However, most of the households have no support from governments at all levels. Besides, TV as the present main channel has very little effect on the farmers' hehaviors. (3) Adaptive behaviors vary along with households' characteristics. Farmers who live in irrigated areas, and who have more agricultural members in the family with larger cultivated land block acreage, are more inclined to take adaptive measures. These findings can provide references for the government to take measures to combat drought.

Key words: governmental regulation, drought, household, response behavior, North China Plain

李小云, 杨宇, 刘毅, 刘慧. 政府调控对华北平原农户抗旱行为的影响及效应[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(6): 1078-1090.

Xiaoyun LI, Yu YANG, Yi LIU, Hui LIU. Effect of governmental regulation on farmers' response behavior of drought resistance: An empirical study of North China Plain[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(6): 1078-1090.

图/表 9

图1

表1

图2

表2

图3

表3

图4

表4

表5

农户响应措施回归模型(因变量：采取=1,不采取=0)

自变量	模型一			模型二			模型三
自变量	系数		Exp(B)		系数	Exp(B)	系数	Exp(B)
内部因素
家里总人口数(人)	-0.063	0.939		-0.061	0.941		-0.062	0.940
户主年龄(岁)	-0.01	0.99		-0.01	0.99		-0.012	0.988
户主受教育程度	0.028	1.028		0.026	1.026		0.018	1.018
家庭耕地面积(亩)	-0.051^**	0.951		-0.049^**	0.953		-0.040^*	0.961
耕地细碎程度(亩/块)	-0.119^**	0.888		-0.119^**	0.887		-0.082	0.922
住宅总价值(万元)	0.004	1.004		0.004	1.004		0.006	1.006
是否参加合作组织(是=1,否=0)	0.221	1.247		0.184	1.202		0.023	1.023
亲戚中有无村干部(有=1,无=0)	-0.329^*	0.719		-0.344^*	0.709		-0.523^**	0.593
外部因素
地形(平原=1,非平原=0)	19.523	3.012		19.595	3.236		19.538	3.056
是否在灌区(是=1,否=0)	0.727^***	2.07		0.699^***	2.012		0.809^***	2.246
平均地下水位(m)	0.001	1.001		0.002	1.002		0.003	1.003
是否灾害年(是=1,否=0)	0.410^**	1.507		0.412^**	1.51		0.426^**	1.532
政策因素
是否获预警信息(是=1,否=0)	0.412^**	1.51
仅灾前获得				0.076	1.079
仅灾后获得				0.216	1.241
灾前、灾后均获得				0.615^***	1.85
仅电视一种途径							-0.342	0.711
仅电视外的一种途径							0.499	1.646
两种及以上途径							0.491^**	1.633
村是否组织抗灾(是=1,否=0)	0.326^*	1.386		0.321^*	1.379		0.223	1.250
是否获政府支持(是=1,否=0)	0.374^*	1.454
乡镇及以下机构支持				0.667^**	1.949
仅技术指导							0.197	1.218
仅资金补贴							2.057^**	7.821
仅物资补贴							0.019	1.019
仅人力支持							0.744	2.105
两种及以上支持							1.100	3.003
乡镇以上机构支持				0.308	1.361
常量	1.025	2.786		1.043	2.838		1.400^**	4.057
预测正确率(%)	79.10			79.20			78.80
自由度	15			18			21
样本数	1070			1070			936

表5

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采取措施种类数		正常年		灾害年
采取措施种类数		采取农户数	占比(%)	采取农户数	占比(%)
不采取		133	24.63	93	17.22
采取,其中：		407	75.37	447	82.78
	1种措施	263	48.70	185	34.26
	2种措施	112	20.74	112	20.74
	3种措施	29	5.37	95	17.59
	4种措施	3	0.56	42	7.78
	5种措施	0	0.00	13	2.41
合计		540	100.00	540	100.00
方差分析	F值	9.011
方差分析	Sig.	0.003

是否获取预警信息		灾前					灾中、灾后
		正常年			灾害年		正常年		灾害年
		农户数		占比(%)	农户数	占比(%)	农户数	占比(%)	农户数	占比(%)
否		292	65.32	291	56.84		282	63.66	286	55.75
是		155	34.68	221	43.16		161	36.34	227	44.25
获取信息途径数	1种	132	29.53	185			36.13	140	31.60	188	36.65
	2种	21	4.70	33	6.45		19	4.29	34	6.63
	3种	1	0.22	2	0.39		1	0.23	4	0.78
	4种	1	0.22	1	0.20		1	0.23	1	0.19
合计		447	100	512	100	443	100	513	100

是否获得机构支持	采取措施的农户比例(%)
是否获得机构支持	正常年	灾害年
未获得	72.17	81.39
获得	85.07	86.86
技术指导	100.00	87.50
资金补贴	85.29	86.96
物资补贴	83.02	88.00
人力支持	100.00	100.00