地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (6): 1078-1090.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201706010
李小云1,2(), 杨宇1,2(
), 刘毅1,2(
), 刘慧1,2
收稿日期:
2016-07-14
修回日期:
2017-01-09
出版日期:
2017-06-25
发布日期:
2017-06-25
作者简介:
作者简介:李小云(1987-), 女, 河南新乡人, 博士生, 从事人地关系与区域发展研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Xiaoyun LI1,2(), Yu YANG1,2(
), Yi LIU1,2(
), Hui LIU1,2
Received:
2016-07-14
Revised:
2017-01-09
Published:
2017-06-25
Online:
2017-06-25
Supported by:
摘要:
气候变化背景下干旱等极端天气事件频发给农业生产带来巨大挑战,明确农户是否采取相关应对措施及政府对其采取措施的影响,是进一步完善相关政策和引导农户增强自身响应能力建设的基础和关键。以华北平原为例,基于农户问卷调查数据,运用计量经济学方法,分析气候变化导致干旱频发背景下微观农户的响应行为,评估政府预警和政策支持是否影响农户响应行为以及其他因素如何影响其响应行为。结果表明:① 农户响应干旱态度积极,随干旱程度加深,农户选择采取响应措施的可能性增大。② 政府调控影响农户响应行为,但仅部分调控手段效果显著。政府提供预警信息能增加农户采取响应措施的可能性,然而只有当灾前及灾中、灾后同时预警时效果才显著;电视是目前最主要的预警媒介,但其并不显著改变农户响应行为,通过两种及以上形式的媒介传播预警信息效果最显著。此外,政府(尤其是乡镇及村级机构)的政策支持对农户旱灾响应行为有一定影响,但其效果在灾害年不如正常年明显;资金补贴的调控手段能明显促进农户采取响应措施的积极性,但绝大多数农户未获得任何机构支持。政府调控的结构及力度均有待提升及完善。③ 不同特质农户的响应行为不同。灌区内的农户,家庭耕地细碎度越小的农户,家庭农业成员越多的农户,更倾向于采取响应措施。本研究可为干旱化背景下制定相关调控政策提供科学参考。
李小云, 杨宇, 刘毅, 刘慧. 政府调控对华北平原农户抗旱行为的影响及效应[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(6): 1078-1090.
Xiaoyun LI, Yu YANG, Yi LIU, Hui LIU. Effect of governmental regulation on farmers' response behavior of drought resistance: An empirical study of North China Plain[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(6): 1078-1090.
表2
农户获取预警信息情况
是否获取 预警信息 | 灾前 | 灾中、灾后 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
正常年 | 灾害年 | 正常年 | 灾害年 | |||||||
农户数 | 占比(%) | 农户数 | 占比(%) | 农户数 | 占比(%) | 农户数 | 占比(%) | |||
否 | 292 | 65.32 | 291 | 56.84 | 282 | 63.66 | 286 | 55.75 | ||
是 | 155 | 34.68 | 221 | 43.16 | 161 | 36.34 | 227 | 44.25 | ||
获取 信息 途径 数 | 1种 | 132 | 29.53 | 185 | 36.13 | 140 | 31.60 | 188 | 36.65 | |
2种 | 21 | 4.70 | 33 | 6.45 | 19 | 4.29 | 34 | 6.63 | ||
3种 | 1 | 0.22 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 0.23 | 4 | 0.78 | ||
4种 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 0.19 | ||
合计 | 447 | 100 | 512 | 100 | 443 | 100 | 513 | 100 |
表5
农户响应措施回归模型(因变量:采取=1,不采取=0)
自变量 | 模型一 | 模型二 | 模型三 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数 | Exp(B) | 系数 | Exp(B) | 系数 | Exp(B) | |||
内部因素 | ||||||||
家里总人口数(人) | -0.063 | 0.939 | -0.061 | 0.941 | -0.062 | 0.940 | ||
户主年龄(岁) | -0.01 | 0.99 | -0.01 | 0.99 | -0.012 | 0.988 | ||
户主受教育程度 | 0.028 | 1.028 | 0.026 | 1.026 | 0.018 | 1.018 | ||
家庭耕地面积(亩) | -0.051** | 0.951 | -0.049** | 0.953 | -0.040* | 0.961 | ||
耕地细碎程度(亩/块) | -0.119** | 0.888 | -0.119** | 0.887 | -0.082 | 0.922 | ||
住宅总价值(万元) | 0.004 | 1.004 | 0.004 | 1.004 | 0.006 | 1.006 | ||
是否参加合作组织(是=1,否=0) | 0.221 | 1.247 | 0.184 | 1.202 | 0.023 | 1.023 | ||
亲戚中有无村干部(有=1,无=0) | -0.329* | 0.719 | -0.344* | 0.709 | -0.523** | 0.593 | ||
外部因素 | ||||||||
地形(平原=1,非平原=0) | 19.523 | 3.012 | 19.595 | 3.236 | 19.538 | 3.056 | ||
是否在灌区(是=1,否=0) | 0.727*** | 2.07 | 0.699*** | 2.012 | 0.809*** | 2.246 | ||
平均地下水位(m) | 0.001 | 1.001 | 0.002 | 1.002 | 0.003 | 1.003 | ||
是否灾害年(是=1,否=0) | 0.410** | 1.507 | 0.412** | 1.51 | 0.426** | 1.532 | ||
政策因素 | ||||||||
是否获预警信息(是=1,否=0) | 0.412** | 1.51 | ||||||
仅灾前获得 | 0.076 | 1.079 | ||||||
仅灾后获得 | 0.216 | 1.241 | ||||||
灾前、灾后均获得 | 0.615*** | 1.85 | ||||||
仅电视一种途径 | -0.342 | 0.711 | ||||||
仅电视外的一种途径 | 0.499 | 1.646 | ||||||
两种及以上途径 | 0.491** | 1.633 | ||||||
村是否组织抗灾(是=1,否=0) | 0.326* | 1.386 | 0.321* | 1.379 | 0.223 | 1.250 | ||
是否获政府支持(是=1,否=0) | 0.374* | 1.454 | ||||||
乡镇及以下机构支持 | 0.667** | 1.949 | ||||||
仅技术指导 | 0.197 | 1.218 | ||||||
仅资金补贴 | 2.057** | 7.821 | ||||||
仅物资补贴 | 0.019 | 1.019 | ||||||
仅人力支持 | 0.744 | 2.105 | ||||||
两种及以上支持 | 1.100 | 3.003 | ||||||
乡镇以上机构支持 | 0.308 | 1.361 | ||||||
常量 | 1.025 | 2.786 | 1.043 | 2.838 | 1.400** | 4.057 | ||
预测正确率(%) | 79.10 | 79.20 | 78.80 | |||||
自由度 | 15 | 18 | 21 | |||||
样本数 | 1070 | 1070 | 936 |
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