中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的格局及其耦合关系

doi:10.11821/dlxb201706009

地理学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 72 ›› Issue (6): 1063-1077.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201706009

中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的格局及其耦合关系

戈大专^1,^2,³, 龙花楼^1,^3,⁴, 张英男^1,^2,³, 屠爽爽^1,^2,³

1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
3. 中国科学院精准扶贫评估研究中心,北京 100101
4. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京 100049

收稿日期:2016-09-29 修回日期:2017-02-03 出版日期:2017-06-25 发布日期:2017-06-25
作者简介:
作者简介：戈大专(1987-), 男, 江苏新沂人, 博士生, 研究方向为农业地理与乡村转型发展。E-mail: gedz.15b@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家科技支撑计划课题(2014BAL01B05)

Pattern and coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes at county level in China

Dazhuan GE^1,^2,³, Hualou LONG^1,^3,⁴, Yingnan ZHANG^1,^2,³, Shuangshuang TU^1,^2,³

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. Center for Assessment and Research on Targeted Poverty Alleviation, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
4. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2016-09-29 Revised:2017-02-03 Published:2017-06-25 Online:2017-06-25
Supported by:
The National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2014BAL01B05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文构建了中国粮食产量与农业劳动力数量变化的耦合关系模式,初步探讨了县域粮食产量与农业劳动力比重变化的耦合过程。利用全国1991年、2000年和2010年3期分县截面数据,分别建立了粮劳弹性系数和农业劳动力转移效应系数用以分析中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的耦合关系。研究表明：① 中国农业转型发展过程中,县域粮食产量与农业劳动力数量变化的耦合关系呈现多样化并存的格局,1991-2010年中国县域农业劳动力数量减少而粮食产量增加、农业劳动力数量增加而粮食产量也增加和农业劳动力数量减少的同时粮食产量也减少的县域数量占县域总数的比重分别为48.85%、29.11%和19.74%;3种耦合类型分别集中于传统农区、西部欠发达牧区和农牧交错区、东南沿海农业快速转型区。② 中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力比重的耦合曲线呈现阶梯式波动变化,且二者耦合关系的离散趋势不断加强。③ 粮劳弹性系数和农业劳动力转移效应系数的变化表明农业劳动力变化在促进粮食增产中的作用在不断下降。④ “胡焕庸线”是中国粮食产量与农业劳动力变化耦合特征的重要分界线,塑造了二者耦合格局的主体结构。

关键词: 粮食产量, 农业劳动力, 粮劳弹性系数, 农业劳动力转移效应系数, 胡焕庸线, 耦合关系

Abstract:

This paper establishes a model of coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes, and preliminarily discusses the coupling process of the changes of grain yield and agricultural labor proportion at county level. Using county-level statistical data of farmland and agricultural labor in 1991, 2000 and 2010, two coefficients were developed to analyze the coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes, one is grain-labor elasticity coefficient (GLEC), and the other is agricultural labor-transfer effect coefficient (ALTEC). Results showed that: (1) During the process of agricultural development transformation in China, different types of coupling relationship modes between grain yield and agricultural labor changes coexist at the same time. During 1991-2010, the number of counties with three different coupling modes, i.e., grain yield increasing and agricultural labor decreasing, both increasing of grain yield and agricultural labor and both decreasing of grain yield and agricultural labor, account for 48.85%, 29.11% and 19.74% of the total counties in the study area, respectively. Interestingly, the coupling mode of grain yield increasing and agricultural labor decreasing is mainly found in the traditional farming area of China. The coupling mode of both increasing of grain yield and agricultural labor is located in the pastoral areas and agro-pastoral ecotone in the underdeveloped western China, while the coupling mode of both decreasing of grain yield and agricultural labor is distributed in the areas experiencing rapid agricultural development transition, especially in the developed southeastern coastal China. (2) From 1991 to 2010, the number of counties which experienced a decline of agricultural labor proportion was 1961, among which 1452 counties with an increasing of grain yield, accounting for 72.38% of the total number of counties. The coupling curve between grain yield and agricultural labor proportion changes showed a stepped fluctuation, and the discrete trend of the coupling relationship was continually strengthened. (3) The mean of GLEC and ALTEC increased from -0.25 and -2.93 during 1991-2000 to -0.16 and -1.78 during 2000-2010, respectively. The changes of GLEC and ALTEC illustrated that the influence of agricultural labor changes on increasing grain yield is diminishing gradually. (4) "Hu Huanyong Line" is a significant boundary presenting the coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes.

Key words: grain yield, agricultural labor, grain-labor elasticity coefficient, agricultural labor-transfer effect coefficient, Hu Huanyong Line, coupling relationship

戈大专, 龙花楼, 张英男, 屠爽爽. 中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的格局及其耦合关系[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(6): 1063-1077.

Dazhuan GE, Hualou LONG, Yingnan ZHANG, Shuangshuang TU. Pattern and coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes at county level in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(6): 1063-1077.

图/表 9

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表1

1991-2010中国县域农业劳动力转移效应系数分类统计汇总

	$ALTEC$ 值	1991-2000年(%)	2000-2010年(%)	1991-2010年(%)
$ALPR < 0$	$ALTEC ≥ 1$	14.66(294)	18.05(362)	10.72(215)
	$0 ≤ ALTEC < 1$	11.32(227)	13.11(263)	14.66(294)
	$- 1 ≤ ALTEC < 0$	15.55(312)	18.30(367)	20.14(404)
	$ALTEC < - 1$	49.65(996)	44.57(894)	52.24(1048)
$ALPR > 0$	$ALTEC ≥ 1$	5.53(111)	3.49(70)	1.94(39)
	$0 ≤ ALTEC < 1$	0.35(7)	0.25(5)	0.25(6)
	$- 1 ≤ ALTEC < 0$	0.40(8)	0.10(2)	0.00(0)
	$ALTEC < - 1$	2.54(51)	2.14(43)	0.00(0)

表1

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中国县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的格局及其耦合关系

Pattern and coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes at county level in China

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