地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (11): 1948-1966.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201611007
何宝忠1,2(), 丁建丽1,2(
), 张喆1,2, 阿布都瓦斯提·吾拉木3
收稿日期:
2016-05-21
修回日期:
2016-09-09
出版日期:
2016-11-25
发布日期:
2016-11-25
作者简介:
作者简介:何宝忠(1989-), 男, 重庆人, 博士生, 从事盐渍化监测与提取植被物候信息研究。E-mail:
基金资助:
Baozhong HE1,2(), Jianli DING1,2(
), Zhe ZHANG1,2, Ghulam Abduwasit3
Received:
2016-05-21
Revised:
2016-09-09
Published:
2016-11-25
Online:
2016-11-25
Supported by:
摘要:
基于MODIS-NDVI数据,提取新疆2005-2015年植被覆盖度(FVC)。通过依据海拔和植被覆盖度的指标划分出山地、绿洲、平原、荒漠等11个子系统。通过斜率、变异系数、线性回归模型等方法来对全疆和不同生态分区的现状和未来发展趋势进行分析,并用BP人工神经网络来预测新疆2016-2020年的植被覆盖度的时空变化和分析2005-2020年时空动态变化趋势。主要结论为:① 新疆植被覆盖度总体为上升趋势,从西北向东南逐渐下降;山地呈逐年上升趋势,荒漠呈不显著退化趋势。植被覆盖度的变化主要是由降水量的变化引起;② 在整个新疆的荒漠和绿洲边缘构成了一个“绿洲—荒漠改善过渡带”,绿洲呈明显的改善趋势;③ 2009年是研究期内多数分区植被覆盖度的历史最低点;④ 在山脉的冰川积雪、湖泊周围的变异性很大,范围在150%~316%之间,这主要是由于气候变化、冰川消融和湖泊水位的波动变化所致;⑤ 北疆生态明显好于东疆与南疆,其绿洲区域呈现明显的改善趋势。伊犁地区的植被覆盖度相比于其他3个分区的变幅很大,山地区域呈明显的逐年退化趋势。伊犁地区植被覆盖度的局部最低点是在2008年,比其他分区的2009年提前了一年,相应的存在“实时”(伊犁)和“滞后”(东疆、南疆和北疆)的效应,主要是由于降水量和气温的变化所致。
何宝忠, 丁建丽, 张喆, 阿布都瓦斯提·吾拉木. 新疆植被覆盖度趋势演变实验性分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(11): 1948-1966.
Baozhong HE, Jianli DING, Zhe ZHANG, Ghulam Abduwasit. Experimental analysis of spatial and temporal dynamics of fractional vegetation cover in Xinjiang[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(11): 1948-1966.
表1
新疆不同生态区植被覆盖度趋势变化统计表
生态分区 | 2005-2015年 | 2016-2020年 | 2005-2020年 |
---|---|---|---|
新疆 | |||
全疆 | 不显著增加趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 | 显著增加趋势 |
荒漠 | 不显著下降趋势 | 微弱显著增加趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 |
绿洲 | 显著增加趋势 | 不显著下降趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 |
山地 | 不显著增加趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 |
东疆 | |||
荒漠 | 不显著下降趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 |
绿洲 | 不显著增加趋势 | 显著下降趋势 | 不显著下降趋势 |
山地 | 不显著增加趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 | 显著增加趋势 |
南疆 | |||
荒漠 | 不显著下降趋势 | 显著增加趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 |
绿洲 | 不显著增加趋势 | 显著下降趋势 | 不显著下降趋势 |
山地 | 不显著增加趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 |
北疆 | |||
荒漠 | 不显著下降趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 | 不显著下降趋势 |
绿洲 | 显著增加趋势 | 不显著下降趋势 | 显著增加趋势 |
山地 | 不显著增加趋势 | 不显著下降趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 |
伊犁 | |||
平原 | 不显著增加趋势 | 显著下降趋势 | 不显著增加趋势 |
山地 | 不显著下降趋势 | 不显著下降趋势 | 不显著下降趋势 |
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