CFSR气象数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性评价——以灞河流域为例

doi:10.11821/dlxb201609009

地理学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 71 ›› Issue (9): 1571-1587.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201609009

CFSR气象数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性评价——以灞河流域为例

胡胜¹(), 曹明明¹, 邱海军¹, 宋进喜¹, 吴江¹, 高宇², 李京忠¹, 孙克红²

1. 西北大学城市与环境学院,西安 710127
2. 陕西省土地工程建设集团,西安 710175

收稿日期:2016-03-17 修回日期:2016-04-22 出版日期:2016-11-25 发布日期:2016-11-25
作者简介:
作者简介：胡胜(1988-), 湖北枣阳人, 博士生, 主要从事水文水资源与地质灾害研究。E-mail: husheng198800@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41401602);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2014JQ2-4021);陕西省重点科技创新团队计划项目(2014KCT-27);西北大学研究生自主创新项目(YZZ15011)

Applicability evaluation of CFSR climate data for hydrologic simulation: A case study in the Bahe River Basin

Sheng HU¹(), Mingming CAO¹, Haijun QIU¹, Jinxi SONG¹, Jiang WU¹, Yu GAO², Jingzhong LI¹, Kehong SUN²

1. College of Urban and Environmental Science, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China
2. Shaanxi Provincial Land Engineering Construction Group, Xi'an 710175, China

Received:2016-03-17 Revised:2016-04-22 Published:2016-11-25 Online:2016-11-25
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41401602;The Project Supported by Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China, No.2014JQ2-4021;Key Scientific and Technological Innovation Team Plan of Shaanxi Province, No.2014KCT-27;Graduate Student Innovation Project of Northwest University, No.YZZ15011

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来,全球再分析气象数据已经越来越多地被运用到世界各地的水文建模中,但是其模拟的效果有很大差异。为探讨CFSR再分析数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性问题,本文以灞河流域为研究区,使用两种气象数据（传统气象数据和CFSR气象数据）构建SWAT水文模型,并从年和月尺度分别进行灞河流域2001-2012年的径流模拟,利用回归分析、纳什效率系数NSE和百分比偏差PBIAS等评价方法对两种数据的模拟效果进行对比。最后,提出了CFSR气象数据订正的方法。结果表明：① CFSR气象数据在灞河流域水文模拟中有一定的适用性,模拟结果的拟合优度R²>0.50,NSE>0.33,|PBIAS|<14.8,纳什效率系数NSE偏低。尽管CFSR气象数据质量存在一定问题,但是经过降雨数据订正后能够取得比较满意的模拟效果。② CFSR气象数据模拟流量比实测流量偏高,这主要是由于CFSR逐日降水数据估算的降雨天数较多、雨强较大,一般会导致该数据在水量平衡方面能够模拟出较高的基流和洪峰流量（个别年份除外）。③ 灞河流域CFSR降水数据（x）与实测降水数据（y）之间的关系大致可用幂指数方程表达：y = 1.4789x^0.8875（R²= 0.98,P<0.001）,每个CFSR站点的拟合方程略微不同,此方程为CFSR降水数据的订正提供了理论基础。

关键词: CFSR, 气象数据, 水文模拟, 适用性评价, SWAT模型, 灞河流域

Abstract:

To discuss the applicability of CFSR reanalysis data in the hydrologic simulation of watersheds, taking the Bahe River Basin as a case, this paper uses two types of weather data to establish SWAT hydrologic model, and carries out the runoff simulation from 2001 to 2012 of the Bahe River Basin on yearly and monthly scales, and makes use of such evaluation methods as repression analysis, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Percent Bias (PBIAS) to compare the simulation effect of both data. At last it puts forward CFSR weather data correction method. The research results show: (1) To some extent, CFSR climate data has applicability for hydrologic simulation in the Bahe River Basin, the R² value of the simulated results is above 0.50, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency is above 0.33, and |Percent Bias (PBIAS)| is below 14.8. Although the quality of the CFSR weather data has some problems, it basically achieves a satisfactory result in the hydrologic simulation of the Bahe River Basin after rainfall data correction. (2) The simulated flow of the CFSR weather data is higher than the observed flow, the reason may be that there are more rainy days and the rainfall intensity is much stronger according to the estimation of day-to-day rainfall data by CFSR, which usually leads to the fact that the data will simulate a higher base flow and flood peak discharge in terms of the Water Balance, except for individual years. (3) The relation between the CFSR rainfall data and the observed rainfall data of the Bahe River Basin can be displayed by a power exponent equation: y=1.4789x^{0. 8875}(R²= 0.98, P <0.001); the fitted equation of each CFSR station varies slightly from others. The equation just lays a theoretical basis for correction of the CFSR rainfall data.

Key words: CFSR, weather data, hydrologic simulation, applicability evaluation, SWAT model, Bahe River Basin

胡胜, 曹明明, 邱海军, 宋进喜, 吴江, 高宇, 李京忠, 孙克红. CFSR气象数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性评价——以灞河流域为例[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(9): 1571-1587.

Sheng HU, Mingming CAO, Haijun QIU, Jinxi SONG, Jiang WU, Yu GAO, Jingzhong LI, Kehong SUN. Applicability evaluation of CFSR climate data for hydrologic simulation: A case study in the Bahe River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(9): 1571-1587.

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站点名称	编号	年均降水量(mm)	海拔高程(m)	控制子流域
灞源站^a	P01	773.9	1144	Sub13~14/17
穆家堰站^c	P02	896.3	794	Sub3~4/7~8/19/21
牧护关站^b	P03	649.9	1200	Sub25~28
蓝桥站^b	P04	676.7	1768	Sub22~23
罗李村站^c,e	P05	830.4	544	Sub12/15~16/18/20
葛牌镇站^a	P06	853.6	1145	Sub32~33
玉川站^a	P07	891.2	1117	Sub29~31
龙王庙站^c	P08	806.2	1352	Sub34~35
辋川站^a	P09	904.2	985	Sub24
蟠桃湾站^a	P10	655.5	495	Sub2/5~6/9~11
马渡王站^c,e	P11	637.2	431	Sub1
西渠站^c	P12	582.8	402	Sub1
CFSR1^d	p3391094	1223.5	1590	Sub27/29~31/33~35
CFSR2^d	p3391097	1271.0	1142	Sub28/32
CFSR3^d	p3421091	437.0	470	Sub1/5
CFSR4^d	p3421094	645.2	680	Sub2/6~12/15~16/18~20/22~24
CFSR5^d	p3421097	983.7	1385	Sub3~4/13~14/17/25~26

尺度	水文站	传统气象数据		CFSR气象数据
尺度	水文站	NSE	PBIAS	NSE	PBIAS
月尺度	罗李村	0.708	31.841	0.428	-4.260
月尺度	马渡王	0.718	28.640	0.372	-14.401
年尺度	罗李村	0.151	31.840	0.339	-4.523
年尺度	马渡王	0.182	28.587	0.370	-14.783

研究者	年份	是否涉及数据订正	订正方法	说明
Dile等^[6]	2014	否	-	将CFSR气象数据引入SWAT水文模型模拟中,但没有进行CFSR气象数据的订正研究
Fuka等^[5]	2014	否	-	将CFSR气象数据引入SWAT水文模型模拟中,但没有进行CFSR气象数据的订正研究
Worqlul等^[13]	2014	否	-	发现MPEG和CFSR两种数据产品的预估值和实际更为符合,但是CFSR的降水数据存在高估或低估的情况
Blacutt等^[14]	2015	否	-	侧重CFSR气象数据与传统气象数据的数学统计特征比较,忽视了二者在月尺度的相关性
Zhao等^[4]	2015	否	-	进行了TRMM卫星数据与实测降雨的一元线性回归,发现二者的拟合度高,但没有给出站点的拟合方程
于宴民等^[12]	2015	是	误差比率法	定义了改正系数=实测年降水量/CFSR年降水量,但仅用2005年1年的年尺度改正系数订正1990-2000年10年的逐日日尺度降水数据,修正尺度过大

CFSR气象数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性评价——以灞河流域为例

Applicability evaluation of CFSR climate data for hydrologic simulation: A case study in the Bahe River Basin

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