地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (7): 1101-1113.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201507007
收稿日期:
2015-01-18
修回日期:
2015-03-29
出版日期:
2015-07-20
发布日期:
2015-07-20
作者简介:
作者简介:张健(1980-), 男, 陕西大荔人, 博士, 讲师, 地理学博士后在站, 主要研究方向为历史地理及其信息技术、气候变化与社会响应、环境史等。E-mail:
基金资助:
Jian ZHANG1,2(), Zhimin MAN3, Jinxi SONG1, Tongsheng LI1
Received:
2015-01-18
Revised:
2015-03-29
Published:
2015-07-20
Online:
2015-07-20
Supported by:
摘要:
基于清代黄河流域水位志桩设置与报汛制度运作情况考证,梳理出清代陕州(陕县,今三门峡市)“万锦滩”水位志桩水尺记录数据,重建了黄河中游1765-2010年5-10月面降雨量变化序列。累积距平法分析显示,面降雨量变化具有较明显阶段性,3个降雨趋增阶段为1816-1863年、1902-1918年、1938-1989年;3个降雨趋减阶段为1765-1815年、1864-1901年、1919-1937年;Morlet小波分析显示,面降雨有5种时间尺度的周期特征,平均周期分别为72.7年,46.8年,30.3年,22.5年和11.2年;滑动t-检验显示面降雨序列存在1824-1826年、1856-1874年和1933-1937年3处突变时段最显著。通过与其他代用指标反映降雨序列及外部因子比对,在1810s、1840-1850s、1880-1900s、1920s、1970s及1990s等几个时段,各序列十年尺度变化趋势比较吻合,显示出基于历史文献和自然指标等不同代用资料重建结果基本一致,亦反映了历史气候变化研究中的不确定性特征。
张健, 满志敏, 宋进喜, 李同昇. 1765-2010年黄河中游5-10月面降雨序列重建与特征分析[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(7): 1101-1113.
Jian ZHANG, Zhimin MAN, Jinxi SONG, Tongsheng LI. Sequence reconstruction and characteristics diagnosis of areal precipitation in the middle Yellow River from May to October during 1765-2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(7): 1101-1113.
[1] | [EB/OL], 2015-01-05. |
[2] | Zhang De'er, Liu Yuewei, Liang Youye, et al. Reconstruction of annual and seasonal precipitation series of Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou during the 18th century. Quaternary Sciences, 2005, 25(2): 21-128. |
[张德二, 刘月巍, 梁有叶, 等. 18世纪南京、苏州和杭州年、季降水量序列的复原研究. 第四纪研究, 2005, 25(2): 121-128.] | |
[3] | Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixin, Ge Quansheng.The changes of precipitation over the middle and lower reach of the Yellow River during the past 300 years. Science in China: Series D, 2005, 35(8): 765-774. |
[郑景云, 郝志新, 葛全胜.黄河中下游地区过去300年降水变化. 中国科学D辑, 2005, 35(8): 765-774.] | |
[4] | Ge Quansheng, Guo Xifeng, Zheng Jingyun, et al.Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2007, 52(23): 2792-2797. |
[葛全胜, 郭熙凤, 郑景云, 等. 1736年以来长江中下游梅雨变化.科学通报, 2007, 52(23): 2792-2797.] | |
[5] | Man Zhimin, Li Zuolun, Yang Yuda.Characteristics of Meiyu during A D 1867-1872 in Wuhan and Changsha areas recorded in Wang Wenshao Diary. Journal of Palaeogeography, 2007, 9(4): 431-438. |
[满志敏, 李卓仑, 杨煜达. 《王文韶日记》记载的1867-1872年武汉和长沙地区梅雨特征. 古地理学报, 2007, 9(4): 431-438.] | |
[6] | Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Ge Quansheng.Climate change and harves tin Xi’an since 1736: the high-resolution data derived from the archives in the Qing Dynasty. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(5): 735-742. |
[郝志新, 郑景云, 葛全胜. 1736年以来西安气候变化与农业收成的相关性分析. 地理学报, 2003, 58(5): 735-742.] | |
[7] | Zhang Dian, Zhan Zhiyong, Lin Chusheng, et al.The relationship for climate change and war, social unrest and dynasty changes in Chinese history. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2004, 49(23): 2468-2474. |
[章典, 詹志勇, 林初升, 等. 气候变化与中国的战争、社会动乱和朝代变迁. 科学通报, 2004, 49(23): 2468-2474.] | |
[8] | Fang Xiuqi, Ye Yu, Zeng Zaozao.The relationships for extreme climatic event, Immigration reclamation and policy: Immigration reclamation on the response of flood and drought disaster from 1661 to 1680 in northeastern China. Science in China: Series D, 2006, 36(7): 680-688. |
[方修琦, 叶瑜, 曾早早. 极端气候事件—移民开垦—政策管理的互动: 1661-1680年东北移民开垦对华北水旱灾的异地响应. 中国科学D辑, 2006, 36(7): 680-688.] | |
[9] | Guo Shenglian, Wang Jinxing, Xiong Lihua, et al.A macro-scale and semi-distributed monthly water balance model to predict climate change impacts in China. Journal of Hydrology, 2002, 268: 1-15. |
[10] | Gao Qi, Xu Ming, Li Wujie, et al.Researches and applications on area precipitation in China. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology, 2014(2): 66-69. |
[高琦, 徐明, 李武阶, 等. 我国面雨量研究及业务应用进展. 气象科技进展, 2014(2): 66-69.] | |
[11] | Zhang Jian.The climate change research in the Middle Yellow River since Qing Dynasty [D]. Shanghai: Fudan University, 2012: 141-146. |
[张健. 清代以来黄河中游气候变化研究. 上海: 复旦大学, 2012: 141-146.] | |
[12] | China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research. Historical Archives in the Yellow River Basin in Qing Dynasty. Beijing: Zhonghua Book Company, 1993. |
[水利电力部水管司科技司, 水利水电科学院. 清代黄河流域洪涝档案史料. 北京: 中华书局, 1993.] | |
[13] | The textual research and analysis on historical flood information recording in the Yellow River in Qing Dynasty. Hydrology, 1992(2): 30-31. |
[赵文骏, 杨新才. 黄河青铜峡(硖口)清代洪水考证及分析. 水文, 1992, (2): 30-31.] | |
[14] | Wang Qiaonian.Main idea of river engineering. Stereotype Edition, 1918: 13. |
[王乔年. 河工要义(铅印本), 1918: 13.] | |
[15] | Gao Zhiding, Ma Guian.Construction and variation of the regional rainstorm grade series for Hekouzhen-Shanmenxia basin of the Yellow River in the last 200 years. Advances in Water Science, 1993, 4(1): 17-22. |
[高治定, 马贵安. 黄河中游河三区间近200年区域性暴雨研究: 等级指标系列的建立和演变规律.水科学进展, 1993, 4(1): 17-22.] | |
[16] | Gong Gaofa, Zhang Piyuan, Wu Xiangding, et al.The Research Methods of Historical Climate Change. Beijing: Science Press, 1983: 205-211. |
[龚高法, 张丕远, 吴祥定, 等. 历史时期气候变化研究方法. 北京: 科学出版社, 1983: 205-211.] | |
[17] | Wei Fengying.Modern Climate Statistics Diagnosis and Prediction Technology. 2nd ed. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007: 49-50, 57-70. |
[魏风英. 现代气候统计诊断预测技术. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007: 49-50, 57-70.] | |
[18] | Xu Yueqing, Li Shuangcheng, Cai Yunlong.The research on precipitation change in Hebei Plain based on wavelet analysis. Science in China (Series D), 2004, 34(12):1176-1183. |
[许月卿, 李双成, 蔡运龙. 基于小波分析的河北平原降水变化规律研究. 中国科学(D辑), 2004, 34(12): 1176-1183.] | |
[19] | Shao Xiaomei, Xu Yueqing, Yan Changrong.Wavelet analysis of rainfall variation in the Yellow River basin. Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis, 2006, 42(4): 503-509. |
[邵晓梅, 许月卿, 严昌荣. 黄河流域降水序列变化的小波分析. 北京大学学报(自然科学版), 2006, 42(4): 503-509.] | |
[20] | Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS. Fluvial Geomorphology in the Lower Weihe River. Beijing: Science Press, 1983: 88. |
[中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所渭河研究组. 渭河下游河流地貌. 北京: 科学出版社, 1983: 88.] | |
[21] | Wang Guoan, Shi Fucheng, Zheng Xiuya, et al.Natural annual runoff estimation from 1470 to 1918 for Sanmenxia gauge station of Yellow River. Advances in Water Science, 1999, 10(2): 170-176. |
[王国安, 史辅成, 郑秀雅, 等. 黄河三门峡水文站1470-1918年年径流量的推求. 水科学进展, 1999, 10(2): 170-176.] | |
[22] | Pan Wei, Zheng Jingyun, Xiao Lingbo, et al.The relationship of nature runoff changes in flood-season of middle Yellow River and Yongding River, 1766-2004. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(7): 975-982. |
[潘威, 郑景云, 萧凌波, 等. 1766年以来黄河中游与永定河汛期径流量的变化. 地理学报, 2013, 68(7): 975-982.] | |
[23] | Lu Xiujuan, Zhang Yaocun, Wang Guogang.Analysis of runoff and precipitation at representative hydrographic stations along the Yellow River. Scientia Meteorologica Sinica, 2003, 23(2): 192-199. |
[卢秀娟, 张耀存, 王国刚. 黄河流域代表水文站径流和降水量变化的初步分析. 气象科学, 2003, 23(2): 192-199.] | |
[24] | Zhang Jian, Man Zhimin, Xiao Weiwei, et al.Research on sequence reconstruction and characteristics diagnosis of droughts and floods in the Middle Yellow River since the Qing Dynasty during AD1644-2009. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(9): 1579-1590. |
[张健, 满志敏, 肖薇薇, 等. 1644-2009年黄河中游旱涝序列重建与特征诊断. 地理研究, 2013, 32(9): 1579-1590.] | |
[25] | Guo Qiyun, Cai Jingning, Shao Xuemei, et al.Interdecadal variability of East-Asian summer monsoon and its impact on the climate of China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(4): 569-576. |
[郭其蕴, 蔡静宁, 邵雪梅, 等. 东亚夏季风的年代际变率对中国气候的影响. 地理学报, 2003, 58(4): 569-576.] | |
[26] | Zhang Pingzhong, Cheng Hai, Lawrence Edwards R, et al.A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-year Chinese cave record. Science, 2008, 322: 940-942. |
[27] | Tan Liangcheng, Cai Yanjun, Cheng Hai, et al.Summer monsoon precipitation variations in central China over the past 750 years derived from a high-resolution absolute-dated stalagmite. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology, 2009, 280: 432-439. |
[28] | Guo Qiyun, Cai Jingning, Shao Xuemei, et al.Studies on the variations of East-Asian summer monsoon during A D 1873-2000. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 2004, 28: 206-215. |
[郭其蕴, 蔡静宁, 邵雪梅, 等. 1873-2000年东亚夏季风变化的研究. 大气科学, 2004, 28: 206-215.] | |
[29] | McGregor S, Timmermann A, Timm O. A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650. Climate of the Past, 2010, (6): 1-17. |
[30] | Hao Zhixin, Zheng Jingyun, Wu Guofeng, et al.1876-1878 severe drought in North China: Facts, impacts and climatic background. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2010, 55: 2321-2328. |
[郝志新, 郑景云, 伍国凤, 等. 1876-1878年华北大旱: 史实、影响及气候背景. 科学通报, 2010, 55: 2321-2328.] | |
[31] | Man Zhimin. Climatic background of the severe drought in 1877. Fudan Journal (Social Sciences Edition), 2000(6): 28-35. |
[满志敏. 光绪三年北方大旱的气候背景. 复旦学报(社会科学版), 2000(6): 28-35.] | |
[32] | Zhang Jian, Zhang Junhui, Lv Zhuomin.Research on the relationship of rivers overflow and climate oscillation in the middle and lower Yellow River in the Qing Dynasty (A D 1751-1911). Journal of northwest university (Natural Science Edition), 2014, 44(6): 993-996. |
[张健, 张俊辉, 吕卓民. 1751-1911年黄河中下游决溢与气候波动. 西北大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 44(6): 993-996.] | |
[33] | Yan Zhongwei, Li Zhaoyuan, Wang Xiaochun.An analysis of decade-to-century-scale climatic jumps in history. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 1993, 17(6): 663-672. |
[严中伟, 李兆元, 王晓春. 历史上10年-100年尺度气候跃变的分析. 大气科学, 1993, 17(6): 663-672.] | |
[34] | Fu Congbin, Wang Qiang.In-phase of South Asian summer monsoon abruption and global rapid warming. Science in China: Series B, 1991, 35(6): 666-671. |
[符淙斌, 王强. 南亚夏季风长期变化中的突变现象及其与全球迅速增暖的同步性. 中国科学B辑, 1991, 35(6): 666-671.] | |
[35] | Liu Yu, Park W K, Cai Qiufang, et al.Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D.1840: Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea. Science in China (Series D), 2003, 33(6): 543-549. |
[刘禹, Park W K, 蔡秋芳, 等. 公元1840年以来东亚夏季风降水变化. 中国科学(D辑), 2003, 33(6): 543-549.] | |
[36] | Ge Quansheng, Wang Shaowu, Fang Xiuqi.An uncertainty analysis of understanding on climate change. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(2): 191-203. |
[葛全胜, 王绍武, 方修琦. 气候变化研究中若干不确定性的认识问题. 地理研究, 2010, 29(2): 191-203.] |
[1] | 高海东, 吴曌. 黄河头道拐—潼关区间植被恢复及其对水沙过程影响[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5): 1206-1217. |
[2] | 黄春长. 若尔盖盆地河流古洪水沉积及其对黄河水系演变问题的启示[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(3): 612-625. |
[3] | 郭付友, 佟连军, 仇方道, 李一鸣. 黄河流域生态经济走廊绿色发展时空分异特征与影响因素识别[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(3): 726-739. |
[4] | 程亦菲, 夏军强, 周美蓉, 王英珍. 黄河下游游荡段排沙比对水沙条件与断面形态的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 127-138. |
[5] | 刘清兰, 陈俊卿, 陈沈良. 调水调沙以来黄河尾闾河道冲淤演变及其影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(1): 139-152. |
[6] | 王彦君, 吴保生, 钟德钰. 黄河下游主槽断面形态对水沙变化响应过程的模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(7): 1494-1511. |
[7] | 张俊华, 李国栋, 王岩松, 朱连奇, 赵文亮, 丁亚鹏. 黄河泥沙冲/沉积区土壤有机碳不同组分空间特征及变异机制[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(3): 558-570. |
[8] | 陆大道, 孙东琪. 黄河流域的综合治理与可持续发展[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(12): 2431-2436. |
[9] | 王彦君, 吴保生, 申冠卿. 1986-2015年小浪底水库运行前后黄河下游主槽调整规律[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(11): 2411-2427. |
[10] | 何磊,叶思源,袁红明,薛春汀. 黄河三角洲利津超级叶瓣时空范围的再认识[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(1): 146-161. |
[11] | 高超,王随继. 1990年以来黄河第一湾齐哈玛河段砾质网状河的演变特征[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(7): 1352-1364. |
[12] | 孙倩,于坤霞,李占斌,李鹏,张晓明,龚珺夫. 黄河中游多沙粗沙区水沙变化趋势及其主控因素的贡献率[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(5): 945-956. |
[13] | 潘威, 郑景云, 满志敏. 1766-2000年黄河上中游汛期径流量波动特征及其与PDO关系[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(11): 2053-2063. |
[14] | 包为民, 沈丹丹, 倪鹏, 周俊伟, 孙逸群. 滑动平均差检测法的提出及验证[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(11): 2075-2085. |
[15] | 叶红,张廷斌,易桂花,李景吉,别小娟,刘栋,罗琳玲. 2000-2014年黄河源区ET时空特征及其与气候因子关系[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(11): 2117-2134. |