1765-2010年黄河中游5-10月面降雨序列重建与特征分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201507007

地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (7): 1101-1113.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201507007

1765-2010年黄河中游5-10月面降雨序列重建与特征分析

张健^1,²(), 满志敏³, 宋进喜¹, 李同昇¹

1. 西北大学城市与环境学院,西安 710127
2. 西北大学西北历史研究所,西安 710069
3. 复旦大学历史地理研究中心,上海 200433

收稿日期:2015-01-18 修回日期:2015-03-29 出版日期:2015-07-20 发布日期:2015-07-20
作者简介:
作者简介：张健(1980-), 男, 陕西大荔人, 博士, 讲师, 地理学博士后在站, 主要研究方向为历史地理及其信息技术、气候变化与社会响应、环境史等。E-mail: zhangjian@nwu.edu.cn
基金资助:
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(13YJC770064);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(13JJD770019);陕西省重点科技创新团队计划(2014KCT-27);中国博士后科学基金项目(2015M572587);陕西省教育厅科学研究计划项目(13JK0042)

Sequence reconstruction and characteristics diagnosis of areal precipitation in the middle Yellow River from May to October during 1765-2010

Jian ZHANG^1,²(), Zhimin MAN³, Jinxi SONG¹, Tongsheng LI¹

1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University, Xi'an 710127, China
2. Research Institute for History of Northwest China, Northwest University, Xi'an 710069, China
3. Center for Historical Geography Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China

Received:2015-01-18 Revised:2015-03-29 Published:2015-07-20 Online:2015-07-20
Supported by:
Humanity and Social Research Project of Education Ministry to Young Scholars, No.13YJC770064;Key Project of Chinese Ministry of Education, No.13JJD770019;Key scientific & technological innovation team plan of Shaanxi province, No.2014KCT-27;Postdoctoral Foundation of China, No.2015M572587;Scientific Research Project of Education Department of Shaanxi Province, No.13JK0042

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于清代黄河流域水位志桩设置与报汛制度运作情况考证,梳理出清代陕州（陕县,今三门峡市）“万锦滩”水位志桩水尺记录数据,重建了黄河中游1765-2010年5-10月面降雨量变化序列。累积距平法分析显示,面降雨量变化具有较明显阶段性,3个降雨趋增阶段为1816-1863年、1902-1918年、1938-1989年;3个降雨趋减阶段为1765-1815年、1864-1901年、1919-1937年;Morlet小波分析显示,面降雨有5种时间尺度的周期特征,平均周期分别为72.7年,46.8年,30.3年,22.5年和11.2年;滑动t-检验显示面降雨序列存在1824-1826年、1856-1874年和1933-1937年3处突变时段最显著。通过与其他代用指标反映降雨序列及外部因子比对,在1810s、1840-1850s、1880-1900s、1920s、1970s及1990s等几个时段,各序列十年尺度变化趋势比较吻合,显示出基于历史文献和自然指标等不同代用资料重建结果基本一致,亦反映了历史气候变化研究中的不确定性特征。

关键词: 历史气候, 径流量, 面降雨, 万锦滩, 黄河

Abstract:

Based on the records of water level at hydrological points and flood report in the Yellow River Basin during the Qing Dynasty, we reorganized the data record of Wanjintan water level concerning Shanxian County (named Shanzhou in the Qing Dynasty, presently Sanmenxia City now), and rebuilt the areal precipitation change sequence in the middle Yellow River from May to October between 1765 and 2010. In this study, accumulative anomaly methods, wavelet analysis, and moving t-test technique were used to examine the characteristics of flood in different phases, periodicities, and mutability of precipitation in the past 246 years. Results showed that precipitation increased rapidly from 1816 to 1863, 1902 to 1918, and 1938 to 1989; the precipitation decreased from 1765 to 1815, 1864 to1901, and 1919 to 1937. According to the wavelet analysis, five types of time scales of the areal precipitation were identified, with the average periods being 72.7a, 46.8a, 30.3a, 22.5a and 11.2a, respectively. By the method of moving t-test technique, three periods of the abrupt change were found in the sequence of areal precipitation, namely 1824-1826, 1856-1874, and 1933-1937. The sequence tendency of a decadal areal precipitation coincided with other alternative indicators, which reflected the precipitation sequence alignment and external factors. The corresponding period including different phases, such as the 1810s, 1840-1850s, 1880-1900s, 1920s, 1970s and 1990s. It is shown that the reconstruction results were consistent on the basis of proxy data from historical documents and natural indicators, and that there were a lot of uncertainties in historical climate change.

Key words: historical climate, areal precipitation, annual runoff, Wanjintan, the middle Yellow River

张健, 满志敏, 宋进喜, 李同昇. 1765-2010年黄河中游5-10月面降雨序列重建与特征分析[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(7): 1101-1113.

Jian ZHANG, Zhimin MAN, Jinxi SONG, Tongsheng LI. Sequence reconstruction and characteristics diagnosis of areal precipitation in the middle Yellow River from May to October during 1765-2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(7): 1101-1113.

图/表 13

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

表1

旱涝等级转化为降雨量的标准

级别	降雨量	备注
1级	$R ? - 1.17 σ$	$σ = ∑ i = 1 n (R i - R ?) 2 n - 1$
2级	$R ? - 0.33 σ$
3级	$R ?$
4级	$R ? + 0.33 σ$
5级	$R ? + 1.17 σ$

表1

图6

图7

图8

图9

图10

图11

图12

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1765-2010年黄河中游5-10月面降雨序列重建与特征分析

Sequence reconstruction and characteristics diagnosis of areal precipitation in the middle Yellow River from May to October during 1765-2010

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