地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (6): 980-992.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201506011
收稿日期:
2014-12-15
修回日期:
2015-04-22
出版日期:
2015-06-20
发布日期:
2015-06-20
作者简介:
作者简介:关伟(1959-), 男, 辽宁岫岩人, 教授, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110003977M), 研究方向为区域经济与产业规划。E-mail:
基金资助:
Received:
2014-12-15
Revised:
2015-04-22
Published:
2015-06-20
Online:
2015-06-20
Supported by:
摘要:
能源生态效率兼顾能源利用中的生态效益与经济效益,是对能源—环境—经济3E系统效率的度量。基于考虑非期望产出的SBM模型对中国1997-2012年省际能源生态效率进行测度,从空间格局规模、格局强度与格局纹理三个方面分析能源生态效率的空间分布特征和演变规律,运用空间计量模型验证中国省际能源生态效率的空间溢出效应及其影响因素。研究表明:① 中国能源生态效率整体偏低,低效率省份约占40%,广东、海南、福建位于能源生态效率值的最前沿,宁夏、甘肃、青海、新疆为主要的低能效地区。全国能源生态效率总体上呈U型演变格局,局部地区主要有增长型、波动型、突变型和平稳型等4种演变类型;② 中国能源生态效率在省际尺度上表现出显著的全局与局部空间集聚特征,高高集聚区主要分布在东部沿海和南部沿海地区,低低集聚区主要分布在西北地区和黄河中游地区。空间格局的变化主要发生在高低集聚区与低高集聚区,其中又以京津冀地区的集聚类型演变最为显著;③ 中国能源生态效率存在着明显的空间效应,某一地区的能源生态效率对相邻地区的空间溢出程度均强于相邻地区的误差冲击对该地区的影响程度;在影响能源生态效率空间效应的诸多因素中,产业结构的影响最大。
关伟, 许淑婷. 中国能源生态效率的空间格局与空间效应[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(6): 980-992.
Wei GUAN, Shuting XU. Study on spatial pattern and spatial effect of energy eco-efficiency in China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(6): 980-992.
表1
1997-2012年中国能源生态效率的全局Moran's I 指数
1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
I | 0.144 | 0.154 | 0.016 | 0.201 | 0.314 | 0.238 | 0.343 | 0.384 | 0.384 | 0.467 | 0.480 | 0.404 | 0.353 | 0.415 | 0.259 | 0.421 |
Z | 1.412 | 1.494 | 0.404 | 1.870 | 2.767 | 2.159 | 2.996 | 3.330 | 3.330 | 3.984 | 4.087 | 3.477 | 3.074 | 3.570 | 2.332 | 3.610 |
P | 0.079 | 0.068 | 0.343 | 0.031 | 0.003 | 0.015 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.010 | 0.000 |
表2
模型回归结果
变量 | 变量含义 | 空间滞后模型 (SLM) | 空间误差模型 (SEM) |
---|---|---|---|
X1 | 经济发展 | 0.074*** | 0.113*** |
X2 | 产业结构 | -0.311*** | -0.302*** |
X3 | 人口数量 | 0.081*** | 0.083*** |
X4 | 城镇化率 | -0.039 | -0.041 |
X5 | 外商投资 | 0.082*** | 0.090*** |
X6 | 对外贸易 | 0.008 | -0.004 |
X7 | 能源投资 | -0.047*** | -0.063*** |
X8 | 交通基础 | -0.083*** | -0.074*** |
空间回归系数 | 0.328*** | ||
空间误差系数 | 0.285*** | ||
R2 | 拟合判定系数 | 0.490 | 0.654 |
log-likelihood | 对数似然比 | 174.376 | 236.070 |
H | Hausman检验 | 27.750*** | 256.572*** |
LM | LM检验 | 39.906*** | 39.906*** |
R-LM | 稳健LM检验 | 11.658*** | 11.658*** |
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