地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (2): 271-282.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201502008

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城市经济脆弱性模拟评估系统的构建及其应用

袁海红1,2(), 牛方曲1, 高晓路1   

  1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京 100101
    2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2013-12-12 修回日期:2014-06-01 出版日期:2015-02-20 发布日期:2015-02-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:袁海红(1986-), 女, 博士, 主要从事灾害风险、经济地理方面的研究。E-mail: haihongyuan321@126.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41101119);国家科技支撑计划项目 (2011BAK07B02);中科院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-06)

Establishment and application of an urban economic vulnerability evaluation system

Haihong YUAN1,2(), Fangqu NIU1, Xiaolu GAO1   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2013-12-12 Revised:2014-06-01 Online:2015-02-20 Published:2015-02-20
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41101119;National Science and Technology Support Program of China, No.2011BAK07B02;The Key Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZZD-EW-06

摘要:

经济脆弱性评价是风险评估的重要步骤和制定有效防灾减灾规划的前提条件,是应急管理和灾后恢复的重要依据。本文提出了一个微观尺度的城市经济脆弱性评估模型,从各类企业的空间布局及其行业经济特征入手,综合考虑企业属性、产业易损性、产业重要性、经济密度等因素,并在此基础上构建了城市经济脆弱性模拟评估系统,以北京市海淀区为案例区对上述模型方法进行了检验。结果表明,城市经济脆弱性评估方法及系统的构建有利于决策者准确把握城市经济脆弱性的分布状况,甄别风险地区和确定风险级别,为城市灾害风险管理提供了可靠依据。系统的运行取得了良好的效果,在辅助决策方面有很好的应用前景,也为城市灾害管理的信息化提供了有益的探索。

关键词: 经济脆弱性, 评估方法, 模拟评估系统, 海淀区

Abstract:

Cities in China face high and rapidly increasing exposure to disaster risk, calling for effective countermeasures. Reducing disaster vulnerability is a direct and effective way to reduce disaster risk, which requires first and foremost the identification and assessment of vulnerabilities of societies, economies, etc. Economic vulnerability assessment is a significant step in risk evaluation, a prerequisite for effective disaster prevention planning and an important base for emergency management and recovery plan. This paper develops a model for the economic vulnerability assessment, which takes into account of scale of enterprises, vulnerability of industrial sectors, importance of industrial sectors and economic density. Based on the economic vulnerability assessment model, this paper develops an urban economic vulnerability evaluation system, and conducts a case study of Haidian District in Beijing using this system. According to the results, we can identify how many and which blocks are at the level of high and very high economic vulnerability, which can provide useful and practical information for pre-disaster prevention planning, emergency response and recovery plan. Therefore, this evaluation system proves to be effective for economic vulnerability assessment. The economic vulnerability assessment model and the establishment of economic vulnerability assessment system in this paper make it possible for the government to quickly evaluate the economic vulnerability and identify the spatial distribution of vulnerable areas, in all, they are useful explorations into the construction of disaster management information system and will have good application prospects in the area of decision support.

Key words: economic vulnerability, assessment model, evaluation system, Haidian District