中国流动人口空间格局演变机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201504005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2000和2010年全国人口普查分县数据,对中国流动人口空间格局的演变特征、形成机制及其城镇化效应进行了系统分析。研究发现,流动人口分布的空间格局具有较强的稳定性,长三角、珠三角和京津冀等沿海城市群仍然是其主要集中地,且沿海集中区有连绵化的趋势,但在城市群内部的空间分布模式差异显著。流动人口向内陆地区的省会等特大城市集中趋势明显,其分布重心出现了明显的北移。省内县际的流动人口规模已接近于省际流动,且有更高的意愿和更强的能力永久居留城镇,省内县际的永久性迁移将成为未来中国人口城镇化的主导模式。中国流动人口迁入地的选择受到政府和市场双重力量的影响,后者的影响力更强。远距离流入东部地区的人口在务工之外,对享受城市生活也开始有所考虑;而中西部地区政府力量在引导人口流动中仍起到重要作用。大规模的人口流动对流出地和流入地的城镇化水平提高均有显著贡献,同时在很大程度上重构了中国城镇体系的等级规模结构和空间布局模式。

关键词: 流动人口, 空间格局, 城镇化, 城镇体系, 城市群, 人口普查, 中国

Abstract:

China has witnessed unprecedented urbanization over the past decades. The rapid expansion of urban population has been dominated by the floating population from rural areas, of which the spatiotemporal patterns, driving forces, and multidimensional effects have been scrutinized and evaluated by voluminous empirical studies. However, the urban and economic development mode has been reshaped by the globalization and marketization processes and the socioeconomic space has been restructured as a consequence. How has the spatial pattern of floating population evolved against these backdrops? How has the evolution been driven by the interaction of state and market forces? What have been the contribution of population mobility to the urbanization of origin and destination regions and the evolution of China's urban system? The latest national censuses conducted in 2000 and 2010 offer the opportunity to systematically answer these questions. Analysis based on the county-level data comes to conclusions as follows. (1) The spatial pattern of floating population remained stable over the first decade of the 21st century. Three coastal mega-city regions, namely the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, were major concentration areas. As the emergence and rapid development of other coastal mega-city regions, the coastal concentration area of floating population tended to geographically united as a whole, whereas the spatial distribution within each region variegated significantly. (2) Floating population gradually moved into provincial capitals and other big cities in interior regions and its distribution center of gravity moved northward around 110 km during the study period. (3) Compared with extensively investigated inter-provincial migrants, intra-provincial migrants had higher intention and ability to permanently live in cities they worked in and thus might become the main force of China's urbanization in the coming decades. (4) The spatial pattern of floating population was shaped jointly by the state and market forces in transitional China. While the impacts of state forces have been surpassed by market forces in the country as a whole, they are still important in shaping the development space of central and western China. (5) The massive mobility of population contributed a large proportion to the increase of urbanization levels of both origin and destination regions and reshaped China's urban system in terms of its hierarchical organization and spatial structure.

Key words: floating population, spatial pattern, urbanization, urban system, urban agglomeration, census, China

刘涛, 齐元静, 曹广忠. 中国流动人口空间格局演变机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(4): 567-581.

Tao LIU, Yuanjing QI, Guangzhong CAO. China's floating population in the 21st century: Uneven landscape, influencing factors, and effects on urbanization[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(4): 567-581.

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		流动人口		户籍人口			流动人口与户籍人口比值
		规模	百分比	规模		百分比
2000	前10	2697.6	34.1	5011.0	4.1		53.8
	前23 (1%)	3592.5	45.5	9385.1	7.6		38.3
	前100	5345.6	67.7	20447.8	16.6		26.1
	全国	7900.8	100.0	123425.6	100.0		6.4
2010	前10	5485.1	32.2	7740.3	5.8		70.9
	前23 (1%)	7785.7	45.6	11842.6	8.8		65.7
	前100	12033.2	70.6	23560.7	17.5		51.1
	全国	17056.1	100.0	134552.5	100.0		12.7

		东部	中部	西部	全国
流动人口总量(万人)	2000	5110.4	1237.8	1552.6	7900.8
	2010	10987.1	2661.9	3407.1	17056.1
	10年增长率(%)	115.0	115.1	119.4	115.9
流动人口占全国比重(%)	2000	64.7	15.7	19.7	100.0
	2010	64.4	15.6	20.0	100.0
	比重变化(%)	-0.3	-0.1	0.3	0.0
流动户籍比(%)	2000	11.1	3.0	4.4	6.4
	2010	22.1	5.8	8.8	12.7
	比值变化(%)	11.0	2.8	4.4	6.3

	省内流动	省际流动	卡方(p值)
希望定居城镇比例	61.65	48.83	26.58 (0.000)
计划在城镇购房比例	29.23	21.54	13.21 (0.000)
计划在农村建房比例	23.50	27.78	3.95 (0.047)

变量	符号	样本量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
流动人口(对数)	lnfltpop	2211	9.46	1.47	5.14	16.20
城镇工资水平(对数)	Lnwage	2211	10.23	0.24	8.98	11.18
非农从业人数(对数)	lnempna	2211	11.21	1.14	7.50	16.29
固定资产投资（人均）	FAI	2211	1.83	1.66	0.04	21.20
人均财政支出(对数)	lnpcfinex	2211	8.23	0.53	5.35	10.56
直辖市和省会	provcap	2211	0.01	0.12	0.00	1.00
地级市	prefecture	2211	0.12	0.32	0.00	1.00
县级市	city	2211	0.16	0.37	0.00	1.00

	全部样本			分区域模型			分等级模型
	市场	政府	综合	东部	中部	西部	市辖区	县市
lnwage	1.784^***		1.152^***	0.564^***	1.179^***	0.492^***	0.687^***	1.152^***
	(20.14)		(13.25)	(3.27)	(8.77)	(3.38)	(5.10)	(12.03)
lnempna	0.884^***		0.766^***	0.970^***	0.570^***	0.710^***	1.031^***	0.769^***
	(53.15)		(32.48)	(22.91)	(8.43)	(18.50)	(26.96)	(28.07)
FAI	0.133^***		0.038^***	-0.038	0.064^**	0.095^***	0.041^**	0.036^***
	(9.65)		(3.36)	(-1.54)	(2.15)	(5.63)	(2.18)	(2.86)
lnpcfinex		0.146^***	0.491^***	0.890^***	0.516^***	0.131^**	0.111	0.553^***
		(3.19)	(9.94)	(10.34)	(3.73)	(2.02)	(1.31)	(10.10)
provcap		5.280^***	1.768^***	0.932^***	2.421^***	2.171^***	0.440^***
		(38.61)	(15.35)	(4.33)	(7.91)	(13.08)	(4.81)
prefecture		2.717^***	1.042^***	0.617^***	1.365^***	1.023^***
		(38.08)	(16.60)	(5.53)	(8.64)	(11.62)
city		1.249^***	0.421^***	0.391^***	0.312^***	0.739^***		0.421^***
		(19.37)	(8.41)	(4.99)	(4.03)	(7.54)		(8.20)
_cons	-18.952^***	7.667^***	-15.237^***	-14.567^***	-13.762^***	-4.815^***	-9.490^***	-15.779^***
	(-20.79)	(20.55)	(-17.93)	(-10.81)	(-7.26)	(-2.86)	(-7.59)	(-16.08)
N	2211	2211	2211	628	703	880	286	1925
adj. R²	0.688	0.539	0.760	0.842	0.729	0.715	0.865	0.550
F	1514.00	769.66	1729.06	700.72	430.93	946.36	592.47	414.67