地理学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (4): 567-581.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201504005
收稿日期:
2014-02-17
修回日期:
2014-05-12
出版日期:
2015-04-20
发布日期:
2015-04-20
作者简介:
作者简介:刘涛(1987-), 男, 安徽宿州人, 博士研究生, 研究方向为城镇化、流动人口、城市土地开发。E-mail:
基金资助:
Tao LIU1(), Yuanjing QI2, Guangzhong CAO3(
)
Received:
2014-02-17
Revised:
2014-05-12
Published:
2015-04-20
Online:
2015-04-20
Supported by:
摘要:
基于2000和2010年全国人口普查分县数据,对中国流动人口空间格局的演变特征、形成机制及其城镇化效应进行了系统分析。研究发现,流动人口分布的空间格局具有较强的稳定性,长三角、珠三角和京津冀等沿海城市群仍然是其主要集中地,且沿海集中区有连绵化的趋势,但在城市群内部的空间分布模式差异显著。流动人口向内陆地区的省会等特大城市集中趋势明显,其分布重心出现了明显的北移。省内县际的流动人口规模已接近于省际流动,且有更高的意愿和更强的能力永久居留城镇,省内县际的永久性迁移将成为未来中国人口城镇化的主导模式。中国流动人口迁入地的选择受到政府和市场双重力量的影响,后者的影响力更强。远距离流入东部地区的人口在务工之外,对享受城市生活也开始有所考虑;而中西部地区政府力量在引导人口流动中仍起到重要作用。大规模的人口流动对流出地和流入地的城镇化水平提高均有显著贡献,同时在很大程度上重构了中国城镇体系的等级规模结构和空间布局模式。
刘涛, 齐元静, 曹广忠. 中国流动人口空间格局演变机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(4): 567-581.
Tao LIU, Yuanjing QI, Guangzhong CAO. China's floating population in the 21st century: Uneven landscape, influencing factors, and effects on urbanization[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(4): 567-581.
表1
中国流动人口的集中性(万人, %)
流动人口 | 户籍人口 | 流动人口与 户籍人口比值 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
规模 | 百分比 | 规模 | 百分比 | |||||
2000 | 前10 | 2697.6 | 34.1 | 5011.0 | 4.1 | 53.8 | ||
前23 (1%) | 3592.5 | 45.5 | 9385.1 | 7.6 | 38.3 | |||
前100 | 5345.6 | 67.7 | 20447.8 | 16.6 | 26.1 | |||
全国 | 7900.8 | 100.0 | 123425.6 | 100.0 | 6.4 | |||
2010 | 前10 | 5485.1 | 32.2 | 7740.3 | 5.8 | 70.9 | ||
前23 (1%) | 7785.7 | 45.6 | 11842.6 | 8.8 | 65.7 | |||
前100 | 12033.2 | 70.6 | 23560.7 | 17.5 | 51.1 | |||
全国 | 17056.1 | 100.0 | 134552.5 | 100.0 | 12.7 |
表2
中国流动人口的地带分异
东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 全国 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
流动人口总量(万人) | 2000 | 5110.4 | 1237.8 | 1552.6 | 7900.8 |
2010 | 10987.1 | 2661.9 | 3407.1 | 17056.1 | |
10年增长率(%) | 115.0 | 115.1 | 119.4 | 115.9 | |
流动人口占全国比重(%) | 2000 | 64.7 | 15.7 | 19.7 | 100.0 |
2010 | 64.4 | 15.6 | 20.0 | 100.0 | |
比重变化(%) | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | |
流动户籍比(%) | 2000 | 11.1 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 6.4 |
2010 | 22.1 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 12.7 | |
比值变化(%) | 11.0 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 6.3 |
表4
变量基本统计信息
变量 | 符号 | 样本量 | 均值 | 标准差 | 最小值 | 最大值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
流动人口(对数) | lnfltpop | 2211 | 9.46 | 1.47 | 5.14 | 16.20 |
城镇工资水平(对数) | Lnwage | 2211 | 10.23 | 0.24 | 8.98 | 11.18 |
非农从业人数(对数) | lnempna | 2211 | 11.21 | 1.14 | 7.50 | 16.29 |
固定资产投资(人均) | FAI | 2211 | 1.83 | 1.66 | 0.04 | 21.20 |
人均财政支出(对数) | lnpcfinex | 2211 | 8.23 | 0.53 | 5.35 | 10.56 |
直辖市和省会 | provcap | 2211 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
地级市 | prefecture | 2211 | 0.12 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
县级市 | city | 2211 | 0.16 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
表5
计量模型估计结果
全部样本 | 分区域模型 | 分等级模型 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
市场 | 政府 | 综合 | 东部 | 中部 | 西部 | 市辖区 | 县市 | |||
lnwage | 1.784*** | 1.152*** | 0.564*** | 1.179*** | 0.492*** | 0.687*** | 1.152*** | |||
(20.14) | (13.25) | (3.27) | (8.77) | (3.38) | (5.10) | (12.03) | ||||
lnempna | 0.884*** | 0.766*** | 0.970*** | 0.570*** | 0.710*** | 1.031*** | 0.769*** | |||
(53.15) | (32.48) | (22.91) | (8.43) | (18.50) | (26.96) | (28.07) | ||||
FAI | 0.133*** | 0.038*** | -0.038 | 0.064** | 0.095*** | 0.041** | 0.036*** | |||
(9.65) | (3.36) | (-1.54) | (2.15) | (5.63) | (2.18) | (2.86) | ||||
lnpcfinex | 0.146*** | 0.491*** | 0.890*** | 0.516*** | 0.131** | 0.111 | 0.553*** | |||
(3.19) | (9.94) | (10.34) | (3.73) | (2.02) | (1.31) | (10.10) | ||||
provcap | 5.280*** | 1.768*** | 0.932*** | 2.421*** | 2.171*** | 0.440*** | ||||
(38.61) | (15.35) | (4.33) | (7.91) | (13.08) | (4.81) | |||||
prefecture | 2.717*** | 1.042*** | 0.617*** | 1.365*** | 1.023*** | |||||
(38.08) | (16.60) | (5.53) | (8.64) | (11.62) | ||||||
city | 1.249*** | 0.421*** | 0.391*** | 0.312*** | 0.739*** | 0.421*** | ||||
(19.37) | (8.41) | (4.99) | (4.03) | (7.54) | (8.20) | |||||
_cons | -18.952*** | 7.667*** | -15.237*** | -14.567*** | -13.762*** | -4.815*** | -9.490*** | -15.779*** | ||
(-20.79) | (20.55) | (-17.93) | (-10.81) | (-7.26) | (-2.86) | (-7.59) | (-16.08) | |||
N | 2211 | 2211 | 2211 | 628 | 703 | 880 | 286 | 1925 | ||
adj. R2 | 0.688 | 0.539 | 0.760 | 0.842 | 0.729 | 0.715 | 0.865 | 0.550 | ||
F | 1514.00 | 769.66 | 1729.06 | 700.72 | 430.93 | 946.36 | 592.47 | 414.67 |
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