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### “胡焕庸线”的稳定性及其两侧人口集疏模式差异

1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
2. 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
• 收稿日期:2014-03-13 修回日期:2014-10-15 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-04-20
• 作者简介:

作者简介：戚伟(1989-), 男, 江苏泰州人, 博士研究生, 中国地理学会会员(S110007891A), 主要从事城市地理与人口集疏研究。E-mail: cc7v@163.com

• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41271174);国家自然科学重点基金项目(41230632)

### Study on the stability of Hu Line and different spatial patterns of population growth on its both sides

Wei QI1,2(), Shenghe LIU1(), Meifeng ZHAO1,2

1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
• Received:2014-03-13 Revised:2014-10-15 Published:2015-04-20 Online:2015-04-20
• Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41271174;Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41230632

“胡焕庸线”是反映中国人地关系的重要地理发现之一。在当今中国经济社会背景下,“胡焕庸线”所表达地理意义及其对城镇化发展的指导作用受到广泛关注。在GIS的支持下,构建了改革开放以来4次人口普查的县级空间数据库,提出人口时空扩张的识别方法,对“胡焕庸线”两侧的人口数量、集疏格局进行统计、分析,主要得出以下结论：① “胡焕庸线”两侧人口数量94:6的大数一直相对稳定,但东南半壁人口持续微减、西北半壁人口持续微增。得益于较高的自然增长率,西北半壁具有较高的人口增长速度。② “胡焕庸线”两侧呈现出迥然不同的人口集疏模式。东南半壁人口集中化程度提升较快,负增长区在“秦岭—淮河”以南、东北等地区大面积扩张、人口正增长优势逐步极化到长三角、珠三角、京津等少数地区,呈现“马太效应”式的集疏模式。主要是由于东南半壁内部区域经济差异及快速城镇化带来的剧烈人口流动。③ 西北半壁则呈现“相对均势”的人口集疏模式,多数地区的人口普遍表现为正增长,但是空间分布广袤、增长不集中,人口集中化程度提升缓慢。主要是由于少数民族“多分散、少聚居”造成了自然增长优势的不集中。然而均势是相对而不是绝对的,同样存在一定的负增长区,主要分布在“胡焕庸线”和“新欧亚大陆桥”两条带上。④ 未来时期,“胡焕庸线”两侧的人口分布及集疏格局将进一步演化,东南半壁应关注内陆腹地及中小城镇对人口的吸纳作用,西北半壁应关注将分散的人口增长优势向少数城镇进行集聚,以期为人口地理学研究以及城镇化发展提供参考。

Abstract:

The Hu Line for population distribution in China has been regarded as one of the greatest geographical discoveries in China because it reveals the significant spatial characteristics of China's human-land relationship. Thus, the stability and significance for spatial development of Hu Line have become a major concern after the dramatic economic and social changes since China's reform and opening-up in 1978. With the support of GIS, this paper conducts a statistical analysis and systematic investigation on the stability and spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of Hu Line by constructing the spatial database of China's census data from 1982 to 2010 and initiating a new method for identifying the spatial patterns of population growth. The findings are as follows: (1) The Hu Line has been rather stable, while a new tendency of population change has emerged. On the whole, the ratio of population on both sides of Hu Line has roughly been kept at 94:6 (the southeastern side: the northwestern side) in the last 30 years. However, the proportion of population on the southeastern side of Hu Line has been slightly decreasing, while that on the northwestern side of Hu Line has been slightly increasing, which is benefited from its higher rate of natural population growth. (2) The spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of Hu Line were quite different. The agglomeration degree of population distribution on the southeastern side of Hu Line increased greater. The areas with negative population growth rate have rapidly expanded, mainly located south of the Qinling Mountains - Huaihe River line and the northeastern China, while the areas with the fast population growth rate concentrated in the areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin metropolitan region. Thus, the spatial pattern of population growth on the southeastern side of Hu Line presented an aggregating and diffusion mode of Matthew effect. (3) The spatial pattern of population growth on the northwestern side of Hu Line could be referred as the relative balance type. In this region, the positive rate of population growth and the lower agglomeration degree of population have been identified. There were lots of ethnic groups located on the northwestern side of Hu Line, and they generally lived dispersedly but with a higher rate of natural population growth due to preferential population policy. However, there were also some areas with negative rate of population growth on the northwestern side of Hu Line and they were mainly distributed close to the Hu Line and new Eurasia Land Bridge. (4) In the future, the spatial patterns of population growth on both sides of Hu Line will continue to change. On the southeastern side of Hu Line, the capacity of population agglomeration for those small and medium-sized cities and towns should be enhanced. As for the northwestern side of Hu Line, the emphasis should be placed on promoting its urbanization and enhancing the capacity of population agglomeration for major cities.