山东省近50年来降水事件变化特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb201405009

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 运用山东省121 个气象站1961-2010 年逐日降水观测数据，分析了山东省近50a 来的降水日数和降水强度的气候特征、变化趋势和贡献率、变异场、突变、周期性等特征。结果表明：近50a 山东省年降水日数和强度存在着明显的年代际振荡，降水日数总体呈极显著减少趋势。降水日数和强度呈明显的带状分布，由东南向西北逐渐减少。各地大雨强度较均匀，暴雨日数和强度在鲁中山区南侧较多、较大，北侧则较少、较小。平均年降水日数呈减少变化趋势的站点达116 个，降水强度增强的站点达80 个。大雨日数减少和暴雨强度增强趋势较明显。大雨和暴雨日数占比较小，但对年降水量贡献较大。21 世纪以来大雨和暴雨降水量和降水日数比率增大。平均降水日数及其变异系数在20 世纪60 年代中期、90 年代前后和21 世纪初期年际变化较大。降水事件同一年代际间的变异系数表现出相似的变化特征，同一降水事件不同年代际间的变异系数表现出明显的差异性。平均降水日数和大雨强度分别在1977 和2005年发生了突变。大雨和暴雨日数变化的主周期分别为5a、11a，降水强度则分别为13a、21a。

关键词: 气候变化, 降水强度, 山东省, 降水日数

Abstract: Based on daily precipitation data of 121 weather stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2010, this paper analyzed the features of precipitation days and intensity including climate characteristics, trends, contribution rate, variation field, abrupt change and periodicity. The results indicated that with a significant drop of days, both annual precipitation days and intensity showed an obvious decadal oscillation. Annual precipitation days and intensity presented evident zonal distribution and gradually decreased from southeast to northwest. Precipitation intensity of heavy rainfall in various places were more uniform, meanwhile days and intensity of extreme rainfall were more and higher in mountain area of southern Shandong than in the northern part. There were 116 stations showing a decreasing trend of annual rainfall days and 80 stations presenting an increase of intensity. Furthermore, days of heavy rainfall decreased and intensity of extreme rainfall had become higher apparently. Heavy and extreme rainfall days on a small proportion, however contributed significantly to the annual precipitation. Since the 21st century, the days and precipitation percentage of heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall had an increasing trend. The average rainfall days and variation coefficient changed greatly in the mid-1960s, 1990s and early 21st century. Variation coefficient of different precipitation events showed similar decadal changes, while that of the same precipitation event in different decadal differentiated evidently. The average rainfall days and heavy rainfall intensity mutated in 1977 and 2005 respectively. Heavy rainfall and extreme rainfall days had variation major periods of 5 years and 11 years respectively, while precipitation intensity of different grades had periods of 13 years and 21 years respectively.

Key words: Shandong Province, precipitation days, climatic feature, precipitation intensity

董旭光, 顾伟宗, 孟祥新, 刘焕彬. 山东省近50年来降水事件变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(5): 661-671.

DONG Xuguang, GU Weizong, MENG Xiangxin, LIU Huanbin. Change features of precipitation events in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(5): 661-671.

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