地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (8): 938-948.doi: 10.11821/xb201008005

• 城市地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于垄断竞争的大都市商业空间结构动态模拟

薛领1, 翁瑾2   

  1. 1. 北京大学政府管理学院,北京100871;
    2. 复旦大学旅游学系,上海200433
  • 收稿日期:2009-09-29 修回日期:2010-03-05 出版日期:2010-08-20 发布日期:2010-08-20
  • 作者简介:薛领(1969-), 男, 博士, 副教授, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110006688M), 主要研究方向为空间经济学、地理计算等。E-mail: paulsnow@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40671046; 40301012)

Dynamic Simulation on Spatial Structure of Metropolitan Commerce Based on Monopolistic Competition Model

XUE Ling1, WENG Jin2   

  1. 1. School of Government, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;
    2. Department of Tourism, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
  • Received:2009-09-29 Revised:2010-03-05 Online:2010-08-20 Published:2010-08-20
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.40671046; No.40301012

PDF (PC)

赞

被引次数

83 | 13

摘要：

本文构建了一个基于垄断竞争、规模经济、交通成本、消费者多样化偏好以及商品和服务差异化的大都市两区域商业空间结构模型。提出了经济学演绎模型与基于agent 的计算实验相结合的研究路径,通过对商家、消费者等大量微观自主体(agent) 的相互作用来“动态地”观察和讨论大都市新、老城区宏观商业空间结构的微观基础、影响因素和演化过程。研究结果表明,①在商品和服务替代性、购物交通成本设定的情形下,新、老城区商业固定成本投入差距越大,则商业空间分布越不均衡,越易形成核心-边缘结构。② 由于居民的消费存在多样化偏好,因此强化区域间的差异性有助于改变商业的市场份额。③ 商业往往集聚在具有区位优势、人口规模优势以及固定成本优势的地区,而且交通条件的改善将加速商业的空间集聚。研究认为,空间经济学演绎模型与推导→基于agent 的地理计算→实证分析与计量检验是一个值得探索的技术路线。

关键词: 大都市, 商业空间结构, 垄断竞争, 基于agent的建模, 动态模拟

Abstract:

Since the 1990s, cities in China have experienced a period of rapid growth. In face of the increasing complexity of the urban sprawl, many big cities are planning to build new towns to avoid over-intensive population and infrastructure construction and to ease the pressure on urban centers. In fact, commerce is one of the most important functions in a city. There is a both-way choice process between the commerce and residence, and the interaction of the two is the foundation of the multi-center structure in metropolitan areas. This paper builds a deductive economic model of spatial structure of metropolitan commerce in two-region scenario based on monopolistic competition, scale economy, spatial cost, preference for variety, and product/service differentiations. However, this kind of traditional mathematic model is based on over-simplifying assumptions, such as heterogeneity irrelevant, fully-rational agents, no interactions among economic agents, unable to adapt and evolve. In addition, the equilibrium analysis is not adapted for dynamic research. To overcome the weakness of traditional deductive model and equilibrium analysis, the paper puts forward a research approach to integrate economic deductive model with agent-based computational experiments for better understanding the evolutional process of metropolitan commerce. By using agent-based modeling and simulation, the spatial structure of metropolitan commerce can be observed dynamically in different scenarios. Therefore, instead of making nonlinear systems tractable by modeling complex building blocks with few interactions, we can make them understandable by modeling simple building blocks with many interactions among different agents in different districts based on our deductive economic model. Dynamic simulations show that (1) With fixed substitution of goods and services and the shopping transport cost, the greater the gap of commercial fixed input between the new and old urban areas is, the more imbalanced commercial space distribution would be, and more easily to form the core-periphery structure. (2) Because of the diversified consumption preferences, to strengthen contribution of inter-regional differences to changes in business market share. (3) Commerce tends to gather in the place with location, population and fixed cost advantages, and improvements in traffic condition will accelerate the commercial spatial concentration. The related methodological issue such as integrating traditional economic model with agent-based geographical computation as well as empirical analysis and econometric test is also discussed.

Key words: metropolis, spatial structure of commerce, monopolistic competition, agent-based modeling, dynamic simulation