近50 年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征

doi:10.11821/xb201109003

地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (9): 1179-1190.doi: 10.11821/xb201109003

近50 年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征

贺晋云, 张明军, 王鹏, 王圣杰, 王兴梅

西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 兰州 730070

收稿日期:2011-04-15 修回日期:2011-06-03 出版日期:2011-09-20 发布日期:2011-11-04
通讯作者: 张明军(1975-), 男, 教授, 博导, 中国地理学会会员(S110007775M), 主要从事气候变化与冰川研究。E-mail: mjzhang2004@163.com E-mail:mjzhang2004@163.com
作者简介:贺晋云(1986-), 女, 硕士研究生, 主要从事全球变化与可持续发展研究。E-mail: hejinyun300@163.com
基金资助:
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-10-0019); 国家自然科学基金项目(41161012); 陇原青年创新人才扶持计划项目; 西北师范大学知识与科技创新工程创新团队项目(NWNU-KJCXGC-03-66)

Climate Characteristics of the Extreme Drought Events in Southwest China during Recent 50 Years

HE Jinyun, ZHANG Mingjun, WANG Peng, WANG Shengjie, WANG Xingmei

Geography and Environment College of Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Received:2011-04-15 Revised:2011-06-03 Online:2011-09-20 Published:2011-11-04
Supported by:
Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University by the Education Ministry of China, No.NCET-10-0019;National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41161012; Foundation for Young Innovative Scientists in Gansu Province; Knowledge and Technological Innovation Project of Northwest Normal University, No.NWNU-KJCXGC-03-66

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用中国气象局整编的1960-2009 年西南地区108 站逐日气温、降水等资料,计算年、月地表湿润指数,并进行标准化,统计极端干旱发生频率,对年际、年代际、季风期和非季风期的极端干旱变化特征进行分析,得出结论：(1) 整体上,四川盆地西南部、横断山区南端、广西南部沿海和贵州北部是近50 年来年极端干旱发生频率明显增加的地区;年代际变化上,20 世纪60-80 年代极端干旱呈逐渐减少趋势,高发区交替出现在东南—西北—东,90 年代下降明显,整个地区都转湿,进入21 世纪后,极端干旱距平呈现正距平,且增幅较大,区域间差异却显著减小。(2) 季风期与非季风期的极端干旱变化有很大差异,季风期极端干旱频率在不断增加,多发生在四川盆地周边海拔较高的山区、广西大部和“帚形山脉”地带,海拔对季风期极端干旱发生频率有一定影响;非季风期缓慢下降,整体偏湿。(3) 通过滑动t 检验和小波分析发现,季风期西南极端干旱在2003 年发生突变,非季风期在1989 年突变,年极端干旱发生频率是季风期和非季风期的突变叠加的结果;年极端干旱存在准5年和准12 年的周期变化。

关键词: 西南地区, 极端干旱, 季风期, 非季风期, 时空特征

Abstract: Based on the daily data of temperature and precipitation of 108 meteorological stations in Southwest China from 1960 to 2009, we calculated the surface humid indexes of months and years, as well as the extreme drought frequency. According to the data, the temporal and spatial characteristics of the extreme drought frequency in inter-annual, inter-decadal, summer monsoon and winter monsoon has been analyzed. The results are indicated as follows: (1) In general, the southwest of Sichuan Basin, the southern part of Hengduan Mountains, southern coast of Guangxi and north of Guizhou are the areas in which the extreme drought frequency has significantly increased in the past 50 years. For the decadal change, from the 1960s to the 1980s the extreme drought frequency has presented a decreasing trend, and the high frequency area appeared alternately in the southeast - northwest - east of Southwest China; the 1990s is the most wettest decade and it is wet over the whole area. In the 2000s, the extreme drought frequency rises quickly, but the regional differences reduce. (2) In summer monsoon, the extreme drought frequency is growing, which generally happens in the high mountains around the Sichuan Basin, most parts of Guangxi and "the broom-shaped mountains". It is obvious that the altitude has impacts on the extreme drought frequency of summer monsoon; in winter monsoon, the area is relatively wet and the extreme drought frequency is decreasing. (3) In summer monsoon, the abrupt change happened in 2003, while the abrupt change of winter monsoon happened in 1989, and the joint abrupt changes in different periods lead to the extreme drought frequency variation. The departure sequence vibration of annual extreme drought frequency is quasi 5 years and quasi 12 years.

Key words: Southwest China, extreme drought, summer monsoon, winter monsoon, temporal and spatial characteristics

贺晋云, 张明军, 王鹏, 王圣杰, 王兴梅. 近50 年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(9): 1179-1190.

HE Jinyun, ZHANG Mingjun, WANG Peng, WANG Shengjie, WANG Xingmei. Climate Characteristics of the Extreme Drought Events in Southwest China during Recent 50 Years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(9): 1179-1190.

参考文献

[1] Changnon S A, Roger A, Pielke Jr et al. Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2000, 81(3): 437-442.

[2] Easterling D R, Evans J L, Groismman P Ya et al. Observed variability and trends in extreme climate events: A brief review.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2000, 81(3): 417-425.

[3] Karl T R, Kulda G, Razuvayev V N et a1. Global warming: Evidence for asymmetric diurnal temperature change.Geophysical Research Letters, 1991, 18: 2253-2256.

[4] Mantou M J, Della-Marta P M, Hayl℃k M R et a1. Trend in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia andthe South Pacific: 1961-1998. International Journal of Climatology, 2001, (l): 269-284．

[5] EasterIing, D R, Horton B et a1. Recent trends in maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe. Science, 1997,277: 364-367.

[6] Plummer N et al. Changes in climate extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the twentieth century.Climatic Change, 1999, 42: 183-202.

[7] Heino R, Brazdil R, Forland E et a1. Progress in the study of climatic extremes in Northern and Central Europe. ClimateChange, 1999, 42: 151-181.

[8] Yan Zhongwei, Yang Chi. Geographic patterns of extreme climate changes in China during 1951-1997. Climatic andEnvironment Research, 2000, 5(3): 267-272. [严中伟, 杨赤. 近几十年中国极端气候变化格局. 气候与环境研究, 2000, 5(3): 267-272.]

[9] Zhang Ning. An analysis on change of trend coefficient of extreme climate events in China [D]. Nanjing: NanjingUniversity of Information Science & Technology, 2007. [张宁. 中国极端气温和降水趋势变化研究[D]. 南京: 南京信息工程大学, 2007. ]

[10] Zhai Panmao, Pan Xiaohua. Change in extreme temperature and precipitation over northern China during the second halfof the 20th century. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(suppl.): 1-10. [翟盘茂, 潘晓华. 中国北方近50 年温度和降水极端事件变化. 地理学报, 2003, 58(增刊): 1-10.]

[11] Ma Zhuguo, Fu Congbin, Ren Xiaobo et al. Trend of annual extreme temperature and its relationship to regional warmingin northern China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(suppl.): 11-20. [马柱国, 符淙斌, 任小波等. 中国北方年极端温度的变化趋势与区域增暖的联系. 地理学报, 2003, 58(增刊): 11-20.]

[12] Qian Weihong, Fu Jiaolan, Zhang Weiwei et al. Changes in mean climate and extreme climate in China during the last 40years. Advances in Earth Science, 2007, 22(7): 673-684. [钱维宏, 符娇兰, 张玮玮等. 近40 年中国平均气候与极值气候变化的概述. 地球科学进展, 2007, 22(7): 673-684.]

[13] Ren Zhaoxia, Yang Dayuan. Study on trends of extreme climate change in the arid region of northwest China in resent 40years. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007, 21(4): 10-13. [任朝霞, 杨达源. 近40a 西北干旱区极端气候变化趋势研究. 干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(4): 10-13. ]

[14] Yang Lianmei. Climate change of extreme precipitation in Xinjiang. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(4): 577-583. [杨莲梅. 新疆极端降水的气候变化. 地理学报, 2003, 58(4): 577-583.]

[15] Yang Xia, Zhao Yizhou, Li Yuanyuan et al. Extreme weather events in Urumqi and their relation with regional climatechange. Arid Land Geography, 2009, 32(6): 867-873. [杨霞, 赵逸舟, 李圆圆等. 乌鲁木齐极端天气事件及其与区域气候变化的联系. 干旱区地理, 2009, 32(6): 867-873.]

[16] Zhang Ting, Wei Fengying. Probability distribution of precipitation extremes during raining seasons in South China. ActaMeteorologica Sinica, 2009, 67(3): 442-451. [张婷, 魏凤英. 华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征. 气象学报, 2009,67(3): 442-451.]

[17] Su Buda, Marco Gemmer, Jiang Tong et al. Probability distribution of precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basinduring 1960-2005. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2007, 3(4): 208-213. [ 苏布达, Marco Gemmer, 姜彤等.1960-2005 年长江流域降水极值概率分布特征. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(4): 208-213.]

[18] Xiao Yan. Research on the temporal and spatial features of extreme precipitation event in Xiangjiang River Basin in recent48 years [D]. Changsha: Hunan Normal University, 2010. [肖艳. 近48 年来湘江流域极端强降水事件的时空特征分析[D]. 长沙: 湖南师范大学, 2010.]

[19] Hu Haoran, Mao Xiaoliang, Liang Ling. Temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation events of flood seasonover Sichuan Basin in last 50 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(3): 278-288. [胡豪然, 毛晓亮, 梁玲. 近50 年四川盆地汛期极端降水事件的时空演变. 地理学报, 2009, 64(3): 278-288.]

[20] Ye Xiang. Analysis of anomaly characteristics on extreme temperature and extreme precipitation over Chongqing during1961-2006 [D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, 2008. [叶香. 重庆近46a 极端气温和极端降水异常特征分析[D]. 南京: 南京信息工程大学, 2008.]

[21] Cui Linli, Shi Jun, Zhou Weidong. Characteristics of extreme temperature variations and their response to urbanization inShanghai. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2009, 29(1): 93-97. [崔林丽, 史军, 周伟东. 上海极端气温变化特征及其对城市化的响应. 地理科学, 2009, 29(1): 93-97.]

[22] Chen Xiaoguang, Declan Conway, Chen Xiaojuan et al. Trends of extreme precipitation events in Ningxia during1961-2005. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2008, 4(3): 156-160. [陈晓光, Declan Conway, 陈晓娟等. 1961-2005年宁夏极端降水事件变化趋势分析. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(3): 156-160.]

[23] Ma Zhuguo, Hua Lijuan, Ren Xiaobo. The extreme dry/wet events in northern China during recent 100 years. ActaGeographica Sinica, 2003, 58 (suppl.): 69-74. [马柱国, 华丽娟, 任小波. 中国近代北方极端干湿事件的演变规律. 地理学报, 2003, 58(增刊): 69-74.]

[24] Mao Fei, Zhang Guangzhi, Xu Xiangde. Several methods of calculating the reference evapotranspiration and comparisonof their results. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 2000, 11(suppl.): 128-136. [毛飞, 张光智, 徐祥德. 参考作物蒸散量的多种计算方法及其结果的比较. 应用气象学报, 2000, 11(增刊): 128-136.]

[25] Ji Zhongping, Gu Dejun, Xie Jiongguang. Multiple time scales analysis of climate variation in Guangzhou during the last100 years. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 1999, 15(1): 48-55. [纪忠萍, 谷德军, 谢炯光. 广州近百年来气候变化的多时间尺度分析. 热带气象学报, 1999, 15(1): 48-55.]

[26] Hao Chunfeng, Jia Yangwen. Analysis on characteristics and rules of climate change of Haihe River Basin in recent 50years. Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, 2010, 8(1): 39-43, 51. [郝春沣, 贾仰文.海河流域近50 年气候变化特征及规律分析. 中国水利水电科学研究院学报, 2010, 8(1): 39-43, 51. ]

[27] Jiang Dabang, Wang Huijun. Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century.Chinese Science Bulletin, 2005, 50(17): 1923-1929.

[28] Wang B, Ding Q H. Changes in global monsoon precipitation over the past 56 years. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006,33, L06711, doi: 10.1029/2005 GL025347.

[29] Li Jianping, Zeng Qingcun. A new monsoon index and the geographical distribution of the global monsoons. Advances inAtmospheric Sciences, 2003(20): 299-302.

[30] Wang Huijun. The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the rnd of 1970's. Advances in AtmosphericSciences, 2001, 18: 376-386.

[31] Wang Huijun. Instability of the East Asian summer monsoon-ENSO relations. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2002, 19: 1-11.

[32] Yang Xunlin, Zhang Pingzhong, Chen Fahu et al. Modern stalagmite oxygen isotopic composition and its implications ofclimatic change from a high-elevation cave in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over the past 50 years. Chinese ScienceBulletin, 2007, 52 (9): 1238-1247.

[33] He Yaoqi, Wang Yongjin, Kong Xinggong et al. High resolution stalagmite δ18O record over the past 1000 year fromDongge Cave in Guizhou. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2005, 50(10): 1003-1008.

[34] Fleitmann D, Burns S J, Neff U et al. Palae℃limatic interpretation of high-resolution oxygen isotope profiles derived fromannually laminated speleothems from southern Oman. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2004, 23: 935-945.

[35] Zeng Hongling, Gao Xinquan. Analyses on interdecadal change characteristics of global winter and summer sea surfacepressure field and 500 hPa height field in recent twenty years. Plateau Meteorology, 2002, 21(1): 66-73. [曾红玲, 高新全.近20 年全球冬、夏季海平面气压场和500hPa 高度场年代际变化特征分析. 高原气象, 2002, 21(1): 66-73.]

[36] Zhao Ji. Chinese Physical Geography. 3rd ed. Beijing: Higher Education Press, 1997. [赵济. 中国自然地理. 3 版. 北京: 高等教育出版社, 1997.]

[37] Shi Yafeng, Shen Yongping, Hu Ruji. Preliminary study on signal, impact and foreground of climatic shift from warm-dryto warm-humid in Northwest China. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2002, 24(3): 219-226. [施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号影响和前景初步探讨. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(3): 219-226. ]

近50 年西南地区极端干旱气候变化特征

Climate Characteristics of the Extreme Drought Events in Southwest China during Recent 50 Years

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

[1]	张学珍, 赵彩杉, 董金玮, 葛全胜. 1992-2017年基于荟萃分析的中国耕地撂荒时空特征[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(3): 411-420.
[2]	周春山,金万富,张国俊,黎明,王少剑. 中国国有建设用地供应规模时空特征及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(1): 16-31.
[3]	刘纪远,宁佳,匡文慧,徐新良,张树文,颜长珍,李仁东,吴世新,胡云锋,杜国明,迟文峰,潘涛,宁静. 2010-2015年中国土地利用变化的时空格局与新特征[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(5): 789-802.
[4]	张英男,龙花楼,戈大专,屠爽爽,曲艺. 黄淮海平原耕地功能演变的时空特征及其驱动机制[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(3): 518-534.
[5]	叶红,张廷斌,易桂花,李景吉,别小娟,刘栋,罗琳玲. 2000-2014年黄河源区ET时空特征及其与气候因子关系[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(11): 2117-2134.
[6]	符文颖,吴艳芳. 德国在华知识密集制造业投资进入方式的时空特征及区位影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(8): 1361-1372.
[7]	何凡能,李美娇,刘浩龙. 北宋路域耕地面积重建及时空特征分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(11): 1967-1978.
[8]	王冀,何丽烨,张雪梅. 华北农牧交错带冬季降雪时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(9): 1363-1374.
[9]	王振波, 方创琳, 许光, 潘月鹏. 2014年中国城市PM_2.5浓度的时空变化规律[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(11): 1720-1734.
[10]	姚晓军, 刘时银, 李龙, 孙美平, 罗晶, 冯娅娅. 近40 年可可西里地区湖泊时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(7): 886-896.
[11]	赵爱芳, 张明军, 孙美平, 汪宝龙, 王圣杰, 王琼. 1960-2010年中国西南地区0 ℃层高度变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(7): 994-1006.
[12]	黄晓燕, 曹小曙, 李涛. 中国城市私人汽车发展的时空特征及影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(6): 745-757.
[13]	李均力, 陈曦, 包安明. 2003-2009 年中亚地区湖泊水位变化的时空特征[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(9): 1219-1229.
[14]	李强子, 闫娜娜, 张飞飞, 常胜, 吴炳方. 2010年春季西南地区干旱遥感监测及其影响评估[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(7): 771-780.
[15]	蒋兴文, 李跃清. 西南地区冬季气候异常的时空变化特征及其影响因子[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65(11): 1325-1335.