地理学报

地理学报 ›› 1994, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (4): 307-316.doi: 10.11821/xb199404003

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运用系统动力学方法研究绿洲经济－生态系统──以玛纳斯绿洲为例

韩德林, 陈正江   

  1. 中国科学院新疆地理研究所
  • 收稿日期:1993-08-01 修回日期:1994-01-01 出版日期:1994-07-15 发布日期:1994-07-15
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金

A STUDY ON THE OASIS ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL SYSTEM BY USING THE METHOD OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS──TAKING THE MANAS OASIS AS AN EXAMPLE

Han Delin, Chen Zhengjiang   

  1. Xinjiang Institute of Geography. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011
  • Received:1993-08-01 Revised:1994-01-01 Online:1994-07-15 Published:1994-07-15

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被引次数

9

摘要： 本文运用系统论的观点和系统动力学（ＳＤ）方法，剖析了干旱区绿洲经济－生态系统的特点及基本反馈结构；探讨了绿洲经济增长的内部机制及其与主要政策变量间的关系。应用模型的仿真结果，就玛纳斯绿洲经济发展的若干问题及人口承载力作了分析。

关键词: 绿洲, 经济－生态系统, 动力学模型, 承载力

Abstract: This research is intended to examine the internal cause of the development of oasis economyecology system, as well as the interaction between oasis and its environments in arid area by using the current theories, viewpoints and methods of system science, to explore a method to assess the loading capacity of oasis’ ecological system, to enlighten the relations between the evolutions of oasis and human behavior on society and economy. to test and choose a best way to control an oasis system by means of a Dynamic model of oasis sytem.Thearticle consists of four parts:1 The economy-ecology system of oasis and its basic feedback structure The genearal concept of oasis and oasis economy-ecology system is presented first, then its characters as well as feedback structure are analysed.2 The practice to establish a Dynamic model of oasis In this part, the problem is to establish a Dynamic model of oasis system.3 The main situation of the development of the economy-ecology system and the relations between it and main policies in the Manas oasis.In this part, some problems about the oasis development, such as the population and economy growth. Alloting invests. planting structure, water resources, optimal accumulation are studied by Model simulating.4 The loading capacity of land resources in the Manas Oasis In this part, the loading capacity of land resources in the Manas Oasis is roughly estimated by its possible living productions that are presented by the model simulating results. It is about 1-0.1. 2 and 1. 4 millions people in 2000. 2010 and 2020 respectively. 

Key words: Oasis, Economy-ecology system, Dynamic model of ststem, loading capacity