地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (8): 1045-1054.doi: 10.11821/xb201108004

• 城市研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国城市地价水平及变化影响因素分析

宋佳楠1, 金晓斌1, 唐健2, 张志宏2, 丁宁1, 赵婕1, 周寅康1   

  1. 1. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院, 南京 210093;
    2. 中国土地勘测规划院, 北京 100029
  • 收稿日期:2010-10-26 修回日期:2011-04-20 出版日期:2011-08-20 发布日期:2011-08-20
  • 通讯作者: 金晓斌(1974-), 男, 甘肃兰州人, 博士, 副教授, 主要从事土地资源管理研究。E-mail: jinxb@nju.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:宋佳楠(1986-), 女, 内蒙古赤峰人, 硕士研究生, 主要从事土地资源管理研究。E-mail: 0102040321@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国土地勘测规划院科技项目（201114105055）

Analysis of Influencing Factors for Urban Land Price and Its Changing Trend in China in Recent Years

SONG Jianan1, JIN Xiaobin1, TANG Jian2, ZHANG Zhihong2, DING Ning1, ZHAO Jie1, ZHOU Yinkang1   

  1. 1. College of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
    2. China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2010-10-26 Revised:2011-04-20 Online:2011-08-20 Published:2011-08-20
  • Supported by:

    Technology project of China Land Surveying and Planning Institute, No. 201114105055

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摘要： 城市地价的影响因素众多且复杂,地价水平和地价变化趋势受到社会、经济、政策等多方面因素的共同影响。论文从城市土地供需和宏观政策角度选取房地产投资额、市辖区建设用地面积、耕地占用税等10 项影响因素,采用2008-2010 年全国105 个土地市场较发育城市分季度地价数据,建立地价水平值与地价增长率影响因素的多层线性模型,定量分析了不同行政层次下,各影响因素对城市土地价格和地价增长率的影响程度。研究结论显示,地价水平值与地价增长率的影响因素不尽相同,且主导因素差异显著：在市级地价影响因素中,房地产投资增长是地价上升的直接动力,而地价增长率则主要受城市建设用地面积、房地产投资额的影响较；省级耕地保护政策对平抑地价、控制地价涨速作用显著,其中新增建设用地土地有偿使用费和耕地占用税是省级层次影响最显著的两项政策指标。

关键词: 城市地价, 地价变化, 影响因素, 多层线性模型, 中国

Abstract: There are many factors affecting the level of land price and its changing trends, and these factors may fluctuate from time to time according to social and economic development and people's demands. In this paper, hierarchical linear models were employed to quantitatively measure the influences and interactions of 10 factors which were chosen in three aspects of urban land supply and demand and farmland protection policy, including real estate investment, population density, urban construction land area, new area for land transfer, arable land occupation tax, new construction land use fee. The level-1 and level-2 models constitute an individual development model using quarterly land price data of 105 cities of China with well-developed land markets from 2008 to 2010 and municipal influencing factors data, aiming to explore the way these factors affect the urban land price and its growth rate. The level-2 and level-3 models constitute an organization model, intending to explore contribution degree of the provincial factors chosen in this paper to land price and its growth rate. The results showed that there are multi-level factors affecting urban land price and its growth rate, and the interclass correlation coefficient shows that 12.45% of the difference in urban land price comes from provincial "background effect". Influencing factors of urban land price and its growth rate are different, and their dominant influencing factors have significant difference. Six municipal influencing factors chosen in this paper explained 82.07% of the difference in urban land price altogether, while 62.75% of the difference in urban land price growth rate. This illustrates that changes in land price growth rate is more "rational" than those of land price. Real estate investment explained 79.90% of the difference in urban land price, being the biggest influencing factor of all the municipal factors, which is the direct driving force of land prices rising. Meanwhile, both urban construction land area and real estate investment have a significant influence on land price growth rate. Farmland protection policies have a significant effect on controlling the level of land price and its growth rate. Concretely, new construction land use fee and arable land occupation tax are two of the most notable land price influencing factors at the provincial level.

Key words: urban land price, changing trend, influencing factors, hierarchical linear model, China