地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (12): 1569-1580.doi: 10.11821/xb201012012

• 碳排放与低碳经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

低碳经济政策对区域发展格局演进的影响——基于动态多区域CGE模型的模拟分析

李娜1,2, 石敏俊1,2, 袁永娜1,2   

  1. 1. 中国科学院研究生院，北京100049;
    2. 中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心，北京100190
  • 收稿日期:2010-06-18 修回日期:2010-10-13 出版日期:2010-12-20 发布日期:2010-12-20
  • 通讯作者: 石敏俊(1964-), 男, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要研究方向为绿色经济与区域发展。E-mail: mjshi@gucas.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:李娜(1983-), 女, 助理研究员, 中国地理学会会员(S110006690A), 主要研究方向为多区域CGE模型与能源环境政策模拟。E-mail: lina@gucas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金委创新群体项目(70921061); 中国科学院创新团队国际合作伙伴计划; 北京大学-林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心《中国环境税项目》

Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on Regional Development in China: A Dynamic Simulation Based on a Multi-regional CGE Model

LI Na1,2, SHI Minjun1,2, YUAN Yongna1,2   

  1. 1. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS, Beijing 100049;
    2. ChinaResearch Center on Fictitious Economy & Data Science, CAS, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2010-06-18 Revised:2010-10-13 Online:2010-12-20 Published:2010-12-20
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Fund of China, No.70921061; CAS' Grant for Overseas Collaboration Group; Project of Chinese Environmental Tax of Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy

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摘要： 利用中国动态多区域可计算一般均衡(CGE) 模型，模拟了低碳经济时代实施碳税政策对中国区域发展格局演进的影响。模拟结果显示，如果各地区实施同一碳税政策，对区域经济的影响存在着区域差异，能源富集地区尤其是欠发达地区的经济损失较大，对发达地区则产生正面的影响，因而将扩大区域经济差异。如果实施差别碳税，对能源富集地区和欠发达地区的影响有所减轻，有利于缩小区域经济差异。针对不同区域制定差异化的低碳经济发展政策，有利于兼顾公平和效率，使中国走上低碳发展和区域经济协调的双赢之路。

关键词: 中国动态多区域CGE模型, 低碳经济, 碳税, 区域经济差异, 区域发展格局

Abstract: Low-carbon economy has become a worldwide trend. This paper applies a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct research into the impacts of carbon tax policy on regional economic development in China based on a China Interregional Input-Output Table 2002. Simulation results show that different regions endure different impacts when a uniform carbon tax policy is implemented. It exerts negative influences on less developed regions and positive economic influences on coastal areas, which will widen regional economic disparity. Regional differentiated carbon tax policies may alleviate differences of impacts of CO2 emission reduction on regional economy and then help to marrow regional economic gap. Therefore, regional differentiated carbon tax policies, from the viewpoint of efficiency and equality, may be a win-win choice for developing low-carbon economy and promoting harmonious development of regional economy in China.

Key words: China, dynamic multi-regional CGE model, low-carbon economy, carbon tax, regional economic disparity, spatial structure of regional economy