地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (12): 1507-1521.doi: 10.11821/xb201012007

• 物流与区域发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国物流发展对渤海海峡跨海通道建设的影响

孙峰华1,2,3, 陆大道4, 柳新华5, 顾九春1, 王振波4,6   

  1. 1. 鲁东大学交通学院, 烟台264025;
    2. 鲁东大学地理与规划学院，烟台264025;
    3. 山西师范大学城市与环境科学学院, 临汾041004;
    4. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
    5. 鲁东大学环渤海发展研究中心, 烟台264025;
    6. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院, 南京210093
  • 收稿日期:2009-09-06 修回日期:2010-11-01 出版日期:2010-12-20 发布日期:2010-12-20
  • 通讯作者: 陆大道(1940-), 男, 中国科学院院士, 原中国地理学会理事长。E-mail: ludd@igsnrr.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:孙峰华(1957-), 男, 山东单县人, 教授, 中国地理学会会员(S110000079M), 主要从事交通物流经济地理的教学与研究。E-mail: sfhaaa@sina.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家社会科学基金特别委托项目(2007@ZH005); 国家软科学重大项目(2700ZXQ4D166)

Influence of the Development of China's Logistics on the Construction of Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway

SUN Fenghua1,2,3, LU Dadao4, LIU Xinhua5, GU Jiuchun1, WANG Zhenbo4,6   

  1. 1. Communications School of Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China;
    2. College of Geography and Planning, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China;
    3. School of Urban and Environment Sciences, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen 041004, Shanxi, China;
    4. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
    5. Development Research Center of the Region Encircling the Bohai Sea, Ludong University, Yantai 264025, Shandong, China;
    6. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
  • Received:2009-09-06 Revised:2010-11-01 Online:2010-12-20 Published:2010-12-20
  • Supported by:

    National Social Science Funds Special Commission Project of China, No.2007@ZH005; Key Project of National Soft Science of China, No.2700ZXQ4D166

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被引次数

34

摘要： 在搜集整理1991-2009 年19 年的相关统计年鉴数据和实际调查数据的基础上。依据现代区位论原理、重力模型原理，建立物流量指数模型，利用此模型计算出2008 年中国31 个省区(直辖市、自治区) 之间的陆路物流量。在此基础上，分析了2008 年31 个省区之间的陆路物流交流状况、东北三省区(东北物流区域) 与全国其他省区、物流区域之间的陆路物流交流状况，计算出通过渤海海峡跨海通道的潜在物流量。利用一元回归模型，预测了2020 年、2030 年、2040 年、2050 年中国31 个省区之间的陆路物流交流量。根据预测结果，借助ArcGIS 9.2 软件系统，计算出2020、2030、2040、2050 年通过渤海海峡跨海通道东北三省区(东北物流区域) 与其他省区、物流区域的物流交流量。计算了中国物流重心移动的轨迹。在此基础上，分析了中国区域物流发展对渤海海峡跨海通道建设的影响，为渤海海峡跨海通道建设提供科学依据。结论表明，渤海海峡跨海通道的建设，使东北三省区(东北物流区域) 与其他省区或物流区域的物流交流，不仅节约了大量的资金成本，还节约了大量的时间成本，进而节约了大量的动力资源，其潜在的无形中的效益是巨大的。

关键词: 物流交流量, 渤海海峡跨海通道, 影响, 物流量指数模型, 回归预测模型, 中国

Abstract: This paper presents the background and significance of the research. The data used in this study was mainly collected from 1991-2009 Statistical Yearbooks and the actual survey. The logistics volume index model has been established on the basis of modern regional theory and gravity model theory. By using the model, the land logistics volume of 31 provinces of China in 2008 is calculated. Then the situations of land logistics interflow among 31 provinces and between the three northeastern provinces (logistics regions of Northeast China) and other provinces are analyzed. The potential logistics volume through Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway is also calculated. With the unary linear regression model, land logistics interflow volume among the 31 provinces in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 is predicted. According the logistics interflow volume between the three northeastern provinces and other provinces through Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 is calculated with Arcgis 9.2 software system. On this basis, the paper analyzes the influence of the development of China's regional logistics flow on the construction of Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway. Results show that the construction of Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway can strengthen the logistics exchange volume between the three provinces in Northeast China and other provinces/other logistics regions, which saves capital and time as well as energy resources to a large extent, hence its potential benefits are enormous.

Key words: logistics exchange volume, Trans-Bohai Strait Passageway, influence, model of the volume index of logistics, unary linear regression model, China