近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子

doi:10.11821/dlxb201403001

地理学报 ›› 2014, Vol. 69 ›› Issue (3): 291-302.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201403001

• 气候环境变化 • 下一篇

近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子

姚俊强¹, 刘志辉^1,2,3, 杨青⁴, 刘洋¹, 李诚志², 胡文峰⁵

1. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院, 绿洲生态教育部重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐830046;
2. 新疆大学干旱生态环境研究所, 乌鲁木齐830046;
3. 干旱半干旱区可持续发展国际研究中心, 乌鲁木齐830046;
4. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所, 乌鲁木齐830002;
5. 兰州大学资源环境学院, 干旱区水循环与水资源研究中心, 兰州730000

收稿日期:2013-07-10 修回日期:2014-01-09 出版日期:2014-03-20 发布日期:2014-03-20
作者简介:姚俊强，男，甘肃通渭人，博士生，研究方向为干旱区气候变化和水资源模拟。E-mail：yaojq1987@126.com
基金资助:
国家国际科技合作项目（2010DFA92720-12）；国家科技支撑计划项目（2012BAC23B01）；国家重点基础研究发展计划973项目（2010CB951001）；教育部创新团队项目（IRT1180）

Temperature variability and its possible causes in the typical basins of the arid Central Asia in recent 130 years

YAO Junqiang¹, LIU Zhihui^1,2,3, YANG Qing⁴, LIU Yang¹, LI Chengzhi², HU Wenfeng⁵

1. College of Resources and Environment, Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology of Ministry of Education, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
2. Institute of Arid Ecology and Environment, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China;
3. International Center for Desert Affairs-Research on Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-arid Lands, Urumqi 830046, China;
4. Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China;
5. College of Resources and Environment, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received:2013-07-10 Revised:2014-01-09 Published:2014-03-20 Online:2014-03-20
Supported by:
The International S&TCooperation Program of China,No.2010DFA92720-12;The National Key Technology R&D Program of China,No.2012BAC23B01;National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program),No.2010CB951001;TheProgram for Innovative Research Team in University of China,No.IRT1180

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用中亚干旱区5 大主要典型流域代表性气象站点近130 年逐月实测气温数据，结合线性趋势、Mann-Kenndall 非参数检验和小波分析等方法，研究了各流域气温的多时间尺度特征，并探讨了引起气温变化的可能因素。研究发现，在近130 年来中亚干旱区各主要流域（除阿姆河外）年均气温均呈上升趋势，增温趋势高于全球和周边地区，中亚干旱区气温对全球变化的响应比其他地区更加明显。20 世纪80 年代之后更加明显，并表现出明显的多时间尺度周期振荡特征，这主要是自然外强迫动力作用、气候系统内部变化和人类活动相互叠加的结果，亚洲极涡强度减弱和面积缩小对主要流域气温变化的作用明显，其次是北半球环状模（北极涛动）和青藏高原的影响，而CO₂引起的温室气体增温效应在中亚干旱区也不容忽视。气温表现出与布吕克纳周期（BC）、太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）和准2~3 年振荡周期（TBO）等有关的显著周期，可以证实中亚干旱区气温变化与大气环流、海温和太阳活动等密切相关。

关键词: 小波分析, CO₂排放量, 中亚干旱区, 气温, 多时间尺度, 亚洲极涡

Abstract: Basin-scale is of the special significance to the climate change research in arid areas. In this study, data from five typical basins of the arid Central Asia are analyzed to investigate changes in annual temperature during the period of 1881-2011. The nonparametric Mann- Kendall test, wavelet analysis and the correlation analysis are used to identify trend, multiple time scale feature and their possible causes in the annual temperature. The results show that the average annual temperature had an increasing trend in the main basins (except Amu Darya Basin) of the arid Central Asia in the past 130 years. The rising rate is consistent with that of the northern hemisphere, much higher than that of the global average and surrounding region, suggesting that the arid Central Asia is more sensitive to climate change than other regions. Abrupt change point in annual temperature occurred around the year of 1986, and showed significant multi-time scale periodic oscillation, which is mainly due to the physical external force and internal climate-control system. The Central Asian vortexes' activity has a significant effect on annual temperature of the typical basins, followed by the northern annual mode cycle variation and the Tibetan Plateau, while the greenhouse effect caused by CO₂ gas emissions in the arid Central Asia can not be ignored. Temperatures show an aperiodic cycle which is related to the BC, PDO and TBO, and we can confirm that temperature in the arid Central Asia is closely related to the atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature and solar activity.

Key words: multi-time scale, temperature variability, Central Asian vortexes activity, CO₂ emissions, Central Asia, wavelet analysis

姚俊强, 刘志辉, 杨青, 刘洋, 李诚志, 胡文峰. 近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(3): 291-302.

YAO Junqiang, LIU Zhihui, YANG Qing, LIU Yang, LI Chengzhi, HU Wenfeng. Temperature variability and its possible causes in the typical basins of the arid Central Asia in recent 130 years[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(3): 291-302.

参考文献

[1] IPCC. Summary for Policymakers of Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007: 4-6.
[2] Mann M E. Climate over the past two millennia. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet Sci., 2007, 35: 111-136.
[3] Mann M E, Zhang Z H, Hughes M K et al. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 2008, 105: 13252-13257.
[4] Chen F H, Wang J S, Jin L Y et al. Rapid warming in mid-latitude central Asia for the past 100 years. Front Earth Sci. China, 2009, 3: 42-50.
[5] Richard. Transboundary River: For China and Kazakhstan, no meet of the minds on water. Science, 2012, 337: 405-407.
[6] Chen F H, Yu Z C et al. Holocene moisture evolution in arid central Asia and its out-of-phase relationship with Asian monsoon history. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2008, 27(3/4): 351-364.
[7] Chen Fahu, Chen Jianhui, Huang Wei. A discussion on the westerly dominated climate model in mid-latitude Asia during the modern interglacial period. Earth Science Frontiers, 2009, 16(6): 23-32. [陈发虎, 陈建徽, 黄伟. 中纬度亚洲现代间冰期气候变化的“西风模式”讨论. 地学前缘, 2009, 16(6): 23-32.]
[8] Wang Jinsong, Chen Fahu, Zhang Qiang et al. Temperature variations in arid and semi-arid areas in middle part of Asia during the last 100 years. Plateau Meteorology, 2008, 27(5): 1035-1045. [王劲松, 陈发虎, 张强等. 亚洲中部干旱半干旱区近100 年来的气温变化研究. 高原气象, 2008, 27(5): 1035-1045.]
[9] Shang Huaming, Wei Wenshou, Yuan Yujiang et al. Early summer temperature history in northeastern Kazakhstan during the last 310 years recorded by tree rings. Journal of Mountain Science, 2011, 29(4): 402-408. [尚华明, 魏文寿, 袁玉江等. 哈萨克斯坦东北部310 年来初夏温度变化的树轮记录. 山地学报, 2011, 29(4): 402-408.]
[10] Wang Wwnsheng, Ding Jing, Li Yueqing. Hydrological Wavelet Analysis. Beijing: Chemical Industry Press, 2005: 64. [王文圣, 丁晶, 李跃清. 水文小波分析. 北京: 化学工业出版社, 2005: 64.]
[11] You Weihong. Multiscale Diagnosis Analysis and Prediction of Climate Change: Several Methods of Research. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1998: 9-20. [尤卫红. 气候变化的多尺度诊断分析和预测的多种技术方法研究. 北京: 气象出版社, 1998: 9-20.]
[12] Wei Fengying. Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology. 2nd ed. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2007. [魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术. 2 版. 北京: 气象出版社, 2007.]
[13] Kumar P, Foufoula Geogiou E. Wavelet analysis for geophysical applications. Reviews of Geophysics, 1997, 35 (4): 385-412
[14] Ding Wenrong, Zhou Yue, Lu Xixi. River sediment rate change rule study. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2007, 52 (Suppl.): 148-154. [丁文荣, 周跃, 吕喜玺. 河流输沙率变化规律研究. 科学通报, 2007, 52(增刊): 148-154.]
[15] Brohan P, Kennedy J J, Harris I et al. Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res., 2006, 111: D12106, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006548.
[16] Li B, Chen Y, Shi X. Why does the temperature rise faster in the arid region of Northwest China? J. Geophys. Res., 2012, 117: D16115, doi: 10.1029/2012JD 017953.
[17] Qian W H, Lu B. Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes. Chinese Sci. Bull., 2010, 55, doi: 10.1007/s11434-010-4204-2
[18] Duan A M, Wu G X. Role of the Tibetan Plateau thermal forcing in the summer climate patterns over subtropical Asia. Clim. Dyn., 2005, 24: 793-807.
[19] Liu Xin, Li Weiping, Wu Guoxiong. Interannual variation of the diabatic heating over the Tibetan Plateau and the northern hemispheric circulation in summer. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2002, 60: 267-277. [刘新, 李伟平, 吴国雄. 夏季青藏高原加热和北半球环流年际变化的相关分析. 气象学报, 2002, 60: 267-277.]
[20] Yu Yongqiang, Chen Wen. Impacts of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions over the East Asian Monsoon Region on the Climate in China. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2005. [俞永强, 陈文. 海—气相互作用对我国气候变化的影响. 北京: 气象出版社, 2005.]
[21] Wu Bingyi, Wang Jia. Possible impacts of winter Arctic oscillation on Siberian High, the East Asian winter monsoon and sea-ice extent. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 2002, 19(2): 297 2 230.
[22] Wang Zunya, Ding Yihui. Impacts of the long term change of the summer Asian polar vortex on the circulation system and the water vapor transport in East Asia. Chinese J. Geophys., 2009, 52(1): 20-29. [王遵娅, 丁一汇. 夏季亚洲极涡的长期变化对东亚环流和水汽收支的影响. 地球物理学报, 2009, 52(1): 20-29.]
[23] Wang Pengxiang, He Jinhai, Zheng Youfei et al. Interdecadal relationship between summer Arctic oscillation and aridity-wetness feature in Northwest China. Journal of Desert Research, 2007, 27(5): 883-889. [王鹏祥, 何金海, 郑有飞等. 夏季北极涛动与西北夏季干湿特征的年代际关系. 中国沙漠, 2007, 27(5): 883-889.]
[24] Qian W H, Lu B. Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes. Chinese Sci. Bull., 2010, 55, doi: 10.1007/s11434-010-4204-2.
[25] http://www.chazidian.com/cidian/905888/.
[26] Yang Donghong, Yang Debin, Yang Xuexiang. The influence of tides and earthquakes in global climate changes. Chinese J. Geophys., 2011, 54: 926-934. [杨冬红, 杨德彬, 杨学祥. 地震和潮汐对气候波动变化的影响. 地球物理学报, 2011, 54: 926-934.]
[27] Yuan Junpeng, Cao Jie. Research on the northern annular mode cycle variation and mutation. Chinese J. Geophys., 2013, 56: 409-421. [袁俊鹏, 曹杰. 北半球环状模周期变化和突变研究. 地球物理学报, 2013, 56: 409-421.]
[28] Huang Wei, Wu Xian, Chen Jianhui et al. Tropospheric biennial oscillations and abrupt changes of precipitation in the arid central Asia. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2012, 8(6): 448-455. [黄伟, 吴娴, 陈建徽等. 中亚干旱区降水准两年周期振荡及突变特征. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(6): 448-455.]

近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子

Temperature variability and its possible causes in the typical basins of the arid Central Asia in recent 130 years

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	尼格娜热·阿曼太, 丁建丽, 葛翔宇, 包青岭. 1960—2017年艾比湖流域实际蒸散量与气象要素的变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2021, 76(5): 1177-1192.
[2]	范科科, 张强, 孙鹏, 宋长青, 余慧倩, 朱秀迪, 申泽西. 青藏高原土壤水分变化对近地面气温的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2020, 75(1): 82-97.
[3]	陆福志,鹿化煜. 秦岭—大巴山高分辨率气温和降水格点数据集的建立及其对区域气候的指示[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(5): 875-888.
[4]	吴子璇, 张强, 宋长青, 张芬, 朱秀迪, 孙鹏, 范科科, 余慧倩, 申泽西. 珠三角城市化对气温时空差异性影响[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74(11): 2342-2357.
[5]	杜勤勤,张明军,王圣杰,车存伟,邱雪,马转转. 中国气温变化对全球变暖停滞的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(9): 1748-1764.
[6]	张扬,白红英,苏凯,黄晓月,孟清,郭少壮. 1960-2013年秦岭陕西段南北坡极端气温变化空间差异[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(7): 1296-1308.
[7]	李双双,芦佳玉,延军平,刘宪锋,孔锋,王娟. 1970-2015年秦岭南北气温时空变化及其气候分界意义[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(1): 13-24.
[8]	张晓东,朱文博,张静静,朱连奇,赵芳,崔耀平. 伏牛山地森林植被物候及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2018, 73(1): 41-53.
[9]	刘鸣彦, 侯依玲, 周晓宇, 易雪, 赵春雨, 龚强, 崔妍. 北太平洋风暴轴的异常活动与辽宁省冬季最低气温的联系[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(7): 1163-1172.
[10]	万红莲, 宋海龙, 朱婵婵, 张咪. 明清时期宝鸡地区旱涝灾害链及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(1): 27-38.
[11]	翟丹平, 白红英, 秦进, 邓晨晖, 刘荣娟, 何红. 秦岭太白山气温直减率时空差异性研究[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(9): 1587-1595.
[12]	柴中华, 刘普幸. 1960-2014年中国绿洲严寒期的时空变化特征与成因分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(5): 743-753.
[13]	杜军, 马鹏飞, 潘多. 1981-2014年西藏各时次气温的变化趋势分析[J]. 地理学报, 2016, 71(3): 422-432.
[14]	张学珍, 刘纪远, 熊喆, 张宏文. 20世纪末中国中东部耕地扩张对表面气温影响的模拟[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(9): 1423-1433.
[15]	郑景云, 刘洋, 葛全胜, 郝志新. 华中地区历史物候记录与1850-2008年的气温变化重建[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(5): 696-704.