塔里木河干流径流损耗及其人类活动影响强度变化

doi:10.11821/xb201101009

地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (1): 89-98.doi: 10.11821/xb201101009

塔里木河干流径流损耗及其人类活动影响强度变化

陈忠升, 陈亚宁, 李卫红, 陈亚鹏

中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,中国科学院绿洲生态与荒漠环境重点实验室, 乌鲁木齐830011

收稿日期:2010-09-16 修回日期:2010-11-15 出版日期:2011-01-25 发布日期:2011-01-25
通讯作者: 陈亚宁(1958-), 男, 研究员, 博士生导师, 中国地理学会会员(S110004398M)。E-mail: chenyn@ms.xjb.ac.cn
作者简介:陈忠升(1981-), 男, 山东曹县人, 硕士, 主要从事干旱区生态水文问题研究。E-mail: chenzs2010@gmail.com
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973 计划) 项目(2010CB951003); 国家自然科学基金项目（40871239）；中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-YW-Q10-3, KZCX2-YW-Q10-3-4)

Changes of Runoff Consumption and Its Human Influence Intensity in the Mainstream of Tarim River

CHEN Zhongsheng, CHEN Yaning, LIWeihong, CHEN Yapeng

Key laboratory of Oasis Ecology and Desert Environment, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS,Urumqi 830011, China

Received:2010-09-16 Revised:2010-11-15 Online:2011-01-25 Published:2011-01-25
Supported by:
National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program),No.2010CB951003;National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.40871239; Knowledge Innovation Program of the CAS,No.KZCX2-YW-Q10-3,KZCX2-YW-Q10-3-4

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 依据塔里木河干流1957-2008 年的年径流量监测数据，计算出干流年径流损耗量，利用线性回归法，对干流年径流损耗量时间序列变化趋势进行分析，建立影响径流损耗的社会经济指标体系，运用层次分析法和权重加权法剖析人类活动影响强度变化趋势，并探讨人为径流损耗的主要原因。研究结果表明：① 近50 多年来，塔河干流年径流损耗量表现出递减变化趋势，但上、中、下游存在差异，上游增加显著，增速约为2.09×10⁸ m³/10a，而中、下游递减趋势显著，减速分别为1.61×10⁸ m³/10a 和2.30×10⁸ m³/10a；② 干流来水量与径流损耗量之间呈明显的正相关，R² = 0.9996，可认为来水量减少是诱发径流损耗量减少的直接原因；③ 人类活动强度指数与人为径流损耗量之间亦呈显著的正相关，R² = 0.9822，说明自20 世纪70 年代中期开始，随着人类活动强度的逐渐增大，人类活动对径流损耗的干扰就处于一个扩大和加重的过程；④ 人口增长、产业结构调整、居民对物质经济的追求等社会经济活动是引起人为径流损耗量增加的主要原因。

关键词: 径流损耗量, 人类活动强度, 干扰点, 塔里木河

Abstract: Based on the monitoring data of annual runoff in the mainstream of Tarim River from 1957 to 2008, runoff consumption is calculated in the mainstream, and then the time series variation tendency of runoff consumption in the mainstream is analyzed by using linear regression method. The results can be drawn as follows. (1) In recent more than 50 years, runoff consumption shows a decreasing tendency on the whole, but the upper, middle and lower reaches are different. The upper reaches increases significantly with the highest rate, being approximately 2.09 × 10⁸ m³/10a, but the middle and lower reaches display a remarkably decreasing tendency, with a rate of 1.61×10⁸ m³/10a and 2.30×10⁸ m³/10a, respectively. (2) The input water volume and runoff consumption have a good positive correlation with R² = 0.9996 in the mainstream, suggesting that the water volume reduction is immediate cause of runoff consumption decrease. (3) Human activities intensity indexes and artificial runoff consumption also show significantly positive correlation, R² = 0.9822 between them, which indicates that since the mid-1970s, with gradual increase of human activities intensity, human activities interference on runoff consumption has been expanding and aggravating.

Key words: runoff consumption, human activities intensity, disturbance point, Tarim River

陈忠升, 陈亚宁, 李卫红, 陈亚鹏. 塔里木河干流径流损耗及其人类活动影响强度变化[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(1): 89-98.

CHEN Zhongsheng, CHEN Yaning, LIWeihong, CHEN Yapeng. Changes of Runoff Consumption and Its Human Influence Intensity in the Mainstream of Tarim River[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(1): 89-98.

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塔里木河干流径流损耗及其人类活动影响强度变化

Changes of Runoff Consumption and Its Human Influence Intensity in the Mainstream of Tarim River

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