地理学报 ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (1): 3-12.doi: 10.11821/xb201101001
• 气候变化 • 下一篇
张强1,2, 李剑锋1,2, 陈晓宏1,2, 白云岗3
收稿日期:
2010-09-12
修回日期:
2010-10-22
出版日期:
2011-01-25
发布日期:
2011-01-25
作者简介:
张强(1974-), 男, 山东沂水人, 博士, 教授, 博士生导师, 主要从事流域气象水文学研究、旱涝灾害机理、流域地表水文过程及其对气候变化的响应机制与机理以及流域生态需水等领域的研究工作。E-mail: zhangq68@mail.sysu.edu.cn
基金资助:
新疆自治区科技攻关项目(200931105); 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41071020); 中山大学理工科青年教师重点培育计划项目(2009-37000-1132381)
ZHANG Qiang1,2, LI Jianfeng1,2, CHEN Xiaohong1,2, BAI Yungang3
Received:
2010-09-12
Revised:
2010-10-22
Online:
2011-01-25
Published:
2011-01-25
Supported by:
Xinjiang Technology Innovative Program, No.200931105; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071020; Program for Outstanding Young Teachers of the Sun Yat-sen University, No.2009-37000-1132381
摘要: 依据新疆地区53 个雨量站1957-2009 年日降水资料,根据研究需要,定义了8 个极端降水指标。运用K-S 法确定降水指标最适概率分布函数,确定十年一遇极端降水量值;在此基础上,采用Copula 非参数估计方法,通过Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) 法确定两降水指标联合分布函数,系统分析极端降水单变量极值及降水极值二维联合概率分布特征,研究新疆地区降水极值概率变化的空间演变特征。研究结果表明:(1) 北疆比南疆湿润,北疆发生极端强降水的概率大,而南疆发生极端弱降水的概率较大,另外,相比较而言,山区要比平原降水多;(2) 极端强、弱降水同年发生的概率分布特征复杂,从降水天数来看,一年内同时发生长历时强降水与弱降水事件的概率山区较平原大;从极端降水总量来看,同时发生强降水与弱降水事件的概率在平原区较山区为大;从极端降水强度来看,同时发生强度较大的强降水与弱降水事件的概率在天山南坡较其他地区为大;(3) 洪旱发生概率与地形有关,天山是洪旱发生的分界线,山区发生洪旱灾害的概率比平原小。
张强, 李剑锋, 陈晓宏, 白云岗. 基于Copula 函数的新疆极端降水概率时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2011, 66(1): 3-12.
ZHANG Qiang, LI Jianfeng, CHEN Xiaohong, BAI Yungang. Spatial Variability of Probability Distribution of Extreme Precipitation in Xinjiang[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(1): 3-12.
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