地理学报 ›› 2005, Vol. 60 ›› Issue (4): 637-644.doi: 10.11821/xb200504012

• 城市地理 • 上一篇    下一篇

20世纪90年代上海市人口分布变动及模拟

高向东, 吴文钰   

  1. 华东师范大学人口研究所、中国现代城市研究中心,上海 200062
  • 收稿日期:2004-12-01 修回日期:2005-04-20 出版日期:2005-07-25 发布日期:2010-09-09
  • 作者简介:高向东, 男, 副教授, 博士, 主要从事城市人口与经济研究。E-mail: xdgao@ecnu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    教育部"十五"规划项目 (01JA840019)

Population Redistribution and Modelling of Shanghai City in the 1990s

GAO Xiangdong, WU Wenyu   

  1. Population Research Institute, The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:2004-12-01 Revised:2005-04-20 Online:2005-07-25 Published:2010-09-09
  • Supported by:

    The 10th Five-Year Plan Foundation of Ministry of Education of PRC, No.01JA840019

摘要:

利用上海市1990年第四次、2000年第五次人口普查资料,运用4种不同的方法划分上海市区,分析了上海市1990~2000年的人口分布变动,模拟了1990年和2000年的人口分布模型。结果表明:从1990年到2000年的10年中,上海中心城人口大量减少,郊区人口增加,人口郊区化显著,上海人口分布变动趋于均衡;上海人口的郊迁扩散方式,主要与同心圆式的环形道路与放射形道路作为基本骨架的城市建设格局有密切关系,尤其是受早已建成的内环线的影响;上海人口郊区化主要表现为近域推进, 1990~2000年的圈层人口密度变动曲线的相交点大约在5 km处,圈层人口密度变化主要在16 km之内;对人口分布模型的模拟则表明,上海人口分布虽然符合负指数函数模型,但不是最优模型,上海人口密度分布的最优模型是Cubic函数。

关键词: 20世纪90年代, 人口分布, 模拟, 上海

Abstract:

Using the data of the 4th and the 5th population censuses and four methods of dividing urban districts of Shanghai, the authors analyzed population redistribution from 1990 to 2000 and modelled population density distribution in 1990 and 2000. The results reflect a tendency of dramatic population decrease in central city and increase in suburban areas in the 1990s, a phenomenon of significant population suburbanization. During the 10 years, the population distribution of Shanghai becomes more homogeneous than before. The diffusion of population from city center to suburbs of Shanghai has a close relationship with the city's 'circle' construction pattern, especially with the inner ring road which had been built in the earlier years. The diffusion is also a short distance one, and the changes of population density occur mainly within a distance of 16 km. The result also indicates that Cubic model is the optimal one to describe population density distribution of Shanghai both in 1990 and 2000, and the exponential model is not the best.

Key words: 1990s, population distribution, modelling, Shanghai