地理学报

地理学报 ›› 2010, Vol. 65 ›› Issue (8): 907-918.doi: 10.11821/xb201008002

• 区域产业发展 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价

吴文斌1,2,3, 唐华俊1,2, 杨鹏1,2, 周清波1,2, 陈仲新1,2, Ryosuke SHIBASAKI3   

  1. 1. 中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所, 北京100081;
    2. 农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室, 北京100081;
    3. 日本东京大学空间情报科学研究中心, 东京153-8505
  • 收稿日期:2009-08-14 修回日期:2009-12-23 出版日期:2010-08-20 发布日期:2010-08-20
  • 通讯作者: 唐华俊(1960-), 男, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事土地利用变化、遥感和GIS应用方面研究。E-mail: hjtang@mail.caas.net.cn
  • 作者简介:吴文斌(1976-), 男, 博士, 副研究员, 主要从事农业遥感和土地利用变化等方面的研究。 E-mail: wwb@mail.caas.net.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划(973 计划) 项目(2010CB951504); 国家自然科学基金项目(40930101; 40971218); 农业部“948” 项目(2009-Z31); 中央级公益性科研院所专项资金项目(IARRP-2010-02)

Model-based Assessment of Food Security at a Global Scale

WU Wenbin1,2,3, TANG Huajun1,2, YANG Peng1,2, ZHOU Qingbo1,2, CHEN Zhongxin1,2, SHIBASAKI Ryosuke3   

  1. 1. Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing & Digital Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081, China;
    3. Center for Spatial Information Science, University of Tokyo, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan
  • Received:2009-08-14 Revised:2009-12-23 Online:2010-08-20 Published:2010-08-20
  • Supported by:

    National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2010CB951504; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40930101; No.40971218; “948” Program of Ministry of Agriculture of China, No.2009-Z31; Foundation for National Non-Profit Scientific Institution, Ministry of Finance of China, No.IARRP-2010-02

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被引次数

36

摘要：

在综合考虑自然、社会和经济等因子对粮食安全影响的基础上,选择了人均粮食占有量和人均GDP两个指标空间显性评价全球粮食安全状况。为此,本研究构建了3 个模型,即空间EPIC 模型、作物选择模型和IFPSIM 模型,分别模拟作物单产、作物播种面积和作物价格。利用构建的评价框架和模型,以网格大小为6 分弧度的地理单元为评价对象,选择水稻、 玉米、小麦和大豆等4 类全球主要作物类型,以2000 年为初始年份,对未来2020 年的全球粮食安全状况进行了评价。结果表明,到2020 年,多数南亚国家和非洲国家,由于其人均粮食占有量和人均GDP两个指标值都显著降低,粮食供应不足和贫困一起将可能导致该区域存在 粮食危机和饥饿风险。对于其他区域,日益增长的粮食需求可以通过本区域的粮食生产自给予以满足,或通过外部购买或粮食进口得到满足,总体上不存在粮食安全问题。为保障未来粮食安全,一方面要保护耕地数量和质量、防止土壤退化、增加资本投入、进行技术创新和升级,提高粮食综合生产能力,保障粮食的有效供给;另一方面加大农业补贴,切实提高农民收入,保障农民利益,增强农业购买力。同时,大力改善粮食流通和农产品贸易体制,通 过外部市场来调节粮食供给;积极应对气候变化,提高农业生产对气候变化的适应能力,保证粮食生产的稳定。

关键词: 粮食安全, 人均粮食占有量, 人均GDP, 模型, 评价

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach for spatially explicit assessment of food security in consideration of a combination of the biophysical, social and economic factors of food security. To do that, two indicators, i.e., per capita food availability and per capita GDP, were used to cover the four dimensions of food security as many as possible. These two indicators were then linked to three models, i.e., spatial EPIC model, crop choice model and IFPSIM model. This proposed approach was applied to assess food security at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting with the year 2000. The results show that some regions such as southern Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future. Both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is thus the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most eastern European countries and most southern American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.

Key words: food security, per capita food availability, per capita GDP, model, assessment