地理学报 ›› 2003, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (2): 209-214.doi: 10.11821/xb200302007

• 气象灾害 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国登陆热带气旋与太平洋海表温度的关系

冯利华   

  1. 浙江师范大学地理系,金华 321004
  • 收稿日期:2002-06-22 修回日期:2002-12-03 出版日期:2003-03-25 发布日期:2010-09-09
  • 作者简介:冯利华 (1955-), 男, 浙江建德人, 教授。主要从事灾害地理学的教学与研究工作,发表论文150余篇。E-mail: fenglh@mail.zjnu.net.cn
  • 基金资助:

    浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(402034,ZE0204)

Relationship between Tropical Cyclones Landing in China and Sea Surface Temperature in the Pacific

FENG Lihua   

  1. Department of Geography, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China
  • Received:2002-06-22 Revised:2002-12-03 Online:2003-03-25 Published:2010-09-09
  • Supported by:

    Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Provence, No.402034, ZE0204

摘要:

根据1951~2000年中国登陆热带气旋与厄尔尼诺年、拉尼娜年的关系分析,得到了一些重要认识:(1) 在厄尔尼诺年,中国登陆热带气旋数偏少;(2) 厄尔尼诺事件强度越大,中国登陆热带气旋数越少;(3) 厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过5月1日,那么次年中国登陆热带气旋数偏少;(4) 中国登陆热带气旋数的特多年主要集中在拉尼娜年;(5) 在拉尼娜次年,中国登陆热带气旋数偏少;(6) 中国登陆热带气旋强度越大,在厄尔尼诺年出现机会越少;(7) 在厄尔尼诺年,中国初旋偏迟,终旋偏早。同时对其机理进行了探讨。

关键词: 中国, 热带气旋, 厄尔尼诺年, 拉尼娜年, 统计预报模式

Abstract:

China witnesses serious disasters of tropical cyclones every year. There were 459 tropical cyclones landing along the coast of China in 1951-2000, of which 15 tropical cyclones are in the maximum year, 4 tropical cyclones in the minimum year, and 9.2 tropical cyclones in the average year. According to the relationship analysis between tropical cyclones landing in China and El Nino years and La Nina years, some results are obtained as follows: (1) There are less frequencies of tropical cyclones landing in China in El Nino years; (2) the greater the intensity of El Nino event, the less the frequencies of tropical cyclones landing in China; (3) if the finish time of El Nino event appears after May 1, there are less frequencies of tropical cyclones landing in China in the following year; (4) the years of extremely high frequencies of tropical cyclones landing in China are mainly in La Nina years; (5) there are less frequencies of tropical cyclones landing in China in the following year of La Nina years; (6) the greater the intensity of tropical cyclones landing in China, the less the arising possibility in El Nino years; and (7) there are later tropical cyclones first-landing in China, and earlier tropical cyclones last-landing in China in El Nino years. The knowledge can be regarded as the formula of statistical forecast of frequencies of tropical cyclones landing in China, which is of the forecasting significance. It is demonstrated by analysis that there is the comparatively close relationship between tropical cyclones landing in China and sea surface temperature in the Pacific. In fact El Nino and La Nina events are one of the main physical factors affecting tropical cyclones landing in China via the sea-air function. Rising and maintaining of tropical cyclones needs the huge energy, and ocean surface of high temperature is its huge energy warehouse. When El Nino event appears, the energy supply decreases in the main source area of tropical cyclones, the inter-tropical convergence zone becomes weaker, and the activity of cumulus convection is affected because sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific reduces. Therefore there is an environmental field that tropical cyclones disadvantageously rise and develop. In this way there are less tropical cyclones landing in China. When La Nina event appears, there is quite the opposite situation.

Key words: China, tropical cyclones, El Nino year, La Nina year, formula of statistical forecast