地理学报 ›› 2003, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (4): 584-590.doi: 10.11821/xb200304013

• 气候变化及其影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

区域土地生产潜力对全球气候变化的响应评价——以中国北方农牧交错带中段为例

赵昕奕,蔡运龙   

  1. 北京大学城市与环境学系,北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2002-10-09 修回日期:2003-03-11 出版日期:2003-07-25 发布日期:2003-07-25
  • 作者简介:赵昕奕 (1968-), 女, 博士, 研究方向涉及气候变化及其区域响应。E-mail:brenda982@sohu.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金 (40201002)

The Vulnerability of Regional Land Productivity to Global Climatic Change: The Case of the Middle Part of Agricultural-Pastoral Zigzag Zone in Northern China

ZHAO Xinyi, CAI Yunlong   

  1. Department of Geography, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2002-10-09 Revised:2003-03-11 Online:2003-07-25 Published:2003-07-25
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 40201002

摘要:

由于气候变化的不确定性,尤其由于区域对气候变化响应评价工作直接关系到区域气候变化对策的制定和区域发展,进行针对气候变化的响应研究比气候变化的影响评价研究更具现实意义。气候变化对区域土地利用会产生一系列的影响,这种影响作用下的区域的反应-相应的变化、必要的适应性调整和适应能力-即是对气候变化的响应。以敏感度和适应能力度量的脆弱性作为衡量区域对气候变化响应的指标,增强了不同研究工作的比较性,正在日益为有关学者接受,并在全球开始研究工作。本文对应用脆弱性理论进行区域气候变化响应研究做了有益的探索。选择气候变化的时间、空间变化明显的中国北方农牧业交错带的中段作为研究案例,分别对农牧业土地生产潜力相对气候变化的敏感度和区域对气候变化的适应能力进行了定量和半定量的计算与评价,从这两个方面给出脆弱性的表述作为对研究区域土地生产潜力对全球气候变化的响应评价。

关键词: 气候变化, 区域响应, 土地生产潜力, 脆弱性, 农牧交错带

Abstract:

The impact of global change, especially the global climatic change on human beings has become one of the most serious problems throughout the world. Because of the uncertainty of climatic change, the assessment of the response to climatic change is more necessary and available than the study on the impact of climatic change, especially on the regional scale, which is concerned with the regional strategies to climatic change and the regional sustainable development. Now the vulnerability is taken as the index to express the response of one region to climatic change, which is the function of both the sensitivity to climate and the adaptability to new conditions. The index will make the research work from different scientists comparable and push ahead the study on the impact of climatic change in the world. The middle part of the agricultural-pastoral zigzag zone in northern China is taken as the case area in the paper, which has changeable climate on the temporal and spatial scales. Both the sensitivity of and the adaptability to climate change of the land production in this area are calculated. The character of this paper lies in: the creation of climate scenario in the future based on the information from different sources, the calculation of sensitivity index by the experiential or statistical relationship of land productivity and climate change, and the assessment of the adaptability using the data from the social and economic yearbooks.

Key words: land productivity, vulnerability, the agricultural-pastoral zigzag zone in China, climate change, regional response