地理学报 ›› 2006, Vol. 61 ›› Issue (1): 47-56.doi: 10.11821/xb200601005

• 水沙研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

长江干流径流的时序结构与长期记忆

王国杰1,2, 姜彤1, 陈桂亚3   

  1. 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京 210008;
    2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京 100039;
    3. 长江水利委员会水文局,武汉 430010
  • 收稿日期:2005-08-11 修回日期:2005-11-03 出版日期:2006-01-25 发布日期:2010-09-06
  • 通讯作者: 姜彤 (1962-), 男, 研究员, 博士生导师, 主要从事气候变化与长江洪水研究。E-mail: jiang.t@niglas.ac.cn E-mail:jiang.t@niglas.ac.cn
  • 作者简介:王国杰 (1976-), 男, 山东潍坊人, 博士生, 主要从事气候水文过程模拟研究。E-mail: wgjie1976@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院知识创新重要方向性项目(KZCX3-SW-331), 国家自然科学基金(40371112)

Structure and Long-term Memory of Discharge Series in Yangtze River

WANG Guojie1,2, JIANG Tong1, CHEN Guiya3   

  1. 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China;
    2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China;
    3. Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China
  • Received:2005-08-11 Revised:2005-11-03 Online:2006-01-25 Published:2010-09-06
  • Supported by:

    Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No.KZCX3-SW-331; National Natural Science Fund, No.40371112

摘要:

基于宜昌、汉口、大通3个典型控制站的长期月径流序列,本文采用奇异谱分析方法、消除波动趋势法 (DFA) 等手段,识别长江干流径流序列的趋势、突变、周期振荡等时序结构及其长期记忆特征。主要结论有:①长江干流径流序列存在明显的准15年周期振荡特征,该周期振荡1970s以来受到某种扰动而弱化;② 宜昌站径流序列于1926 年、1970 年发生两次突变,均以径流减少为特征;汉口站径流序列于1955a发生突变,也以径流减少为特征;大通站径流于1955年、1988年发生两次突变,前者以径流减少为特征,后者以增加为特征;③ 长江干流月径流序列存在较强的确定性成分,长期记忆特征明显;集水面积越大,径流序列的长期记忆越强,表现出明显的记忆累积效应。

关键词: 径流序列, 时序结构, 长期记忆, 长江

Abstract:

Based on the long-term monthly discharge series of Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations, this paper has explored the discharge series structure of periodicity, trend and abrupt changes as well as its long-term momery with Singular Spectum Analysis, and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in employment. The results revealed that: 1) there is a significant 15a periodicity in the discharge series of the Yangtze River, and the 15a periodicity has been disturbed since the 1970s; 2) two abrupt and negative changes of Yichang series respectively in 1926 and 1970 have been detected in Hankou series in 1954; two abrupt changes occurred in Datong series respectively in 1955 and 1988, the former negative and the latter positive; and 3) the performance of DFA revealed a long memory in the discharge series of the Yangtze River, and the larger the upslope contributing area is, the stronger the long memory, which exhibits a cumulative effect.

Key words: discharge series, time series structure, long-term memory, Yangtze River